On the heels of Thanksgiving, the NBA is offering a massive 14-game slate on Wednesday before taking the day off on Thursday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Bam Adebayo: Miami Heat-Cleveland Cavaliers
One of the most improved offensive players of the young season, Bam Adebayo is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings tonight. He is coming into tonight’s action putting up 46.4 DraftKings points per game and is doing it on both ends of the floor, as he leads the Heat in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Adebayo was always a defensive wizard, but he has taken his game to new heights this year.
Despite his nightly production, Adebayo is projected for minimal ownership tonight, as the field has little interest in spending $8,900 on him in a tough matchup against the Cavaliers. Even in this tough spot, however, Stokastic’s tools have Adebayo optimal 10.30% of the time this slate plays out. Compare that to his 6.70% projected ownership, and it makes sense why he looks so good as a “spend up to be contrarian” option in tournaments.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Dennis Schroder: Toronto Raptors-Indiana Pacers
Dennis Schroder is the top mid-tier contrarian play on the slate and also looks great in tournaments at $6,500 on DraftKings. In an elite spot against the fast-paced Indiana Pacers, Schroder has massive upside tonight, and the field is reluctant to get to him at this price point. He is coming into tonight’s game averaging 32.7 DraftKings points per game, and there’s a ton to like about him this evening in Indiana.
As of this writing Stokastic’s tools have Schroder optimal 8.60% of the time on DraftKings. The masses aren’t getting to him at nearly this rate, however, as he’s only projected to be in 4.20% of rosters. As we saw last night against the Hawks, the Pacers are one of the top targets for DFS purposes right now, and Schroder is a fantastic, low-owned, high-upside play in GPP’s.
Contrarian Value — Jose Alvarado: Sacramento Kings-New Orleans Pelicans
After missing the Pelicans’ first 13 games of the season with an ankle sprain, Jose Alvarado returned to action on Monday, giving New Orleans a much-needed defensive boost in the backcourt. While he played limited minutes, the game turned into a massive blowout, with the Pelicans smartly deciding not to overextend Alvarado in a game they won by 36 points. With the Pelicans still missing C.J. McCollum, they need Alvarado’s ball-handling ability in the backcourt, and it’s reasonable to think his minutes continue to climb as he gets in better game shape.
While it’s doubtful he plays anywhere close to 30 minutes tonight, we don’t need that at his cheap $3,400 price tag. He only played 15 minutes in his season debut, and Stokastic’s tools still have Alvarado optimal on this slate 11.60% of the time on DraftKings. With only 5.40% of the field expected to roster him, Alvarado is clearly worth getting over the field on as arguably the best punt option on the entire slate.
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