NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Dejounte Murray Not Getting Enough Love? (March 6)

We’re back with another eight-game slate on Wednesday that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Dejounte Murray and Draymond Green. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wedneday, March 6

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NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Cavaliers-Hawks: Dejounte Murray

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 3.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,500

Even with eight games on tonight’s docket, there are limited spend up options, and most of them are projected to be either correctly or over owned. Dejounte Murray is the one of the odd men out, however, and he grades as a really strong leverage play at $9,500 on DraftKings.

Murray is averaging 40.2 fantasy points per game overall on the season, but that number has increased to 48.51 in the six games since the All-Star break with Trae Young out of the lineup.

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Murray is projected to be in just 1.40% of lineups on DraftKings, but his optimal percentage is 3.90%, making him one of the best differentiators on the slate and an elite tournament play at $9,500.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Bucks-Warriors: Draymond Green

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.80%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,200

Draymond Green is the second-highest-graded leverage play on tonight’s slate, and he’s the obvious top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $6,200. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 29.4 DraftKings points per game, Green has been more solid than spectacular in what is now his 12th season in the NBA. Green has been better in the latter portion of the season, however, and there’s a lot to like about him tonight in a primetime matchup against the Bucks. The Warriors are coming off a solid 3-1 road trip, but after getting embarrassed on Sunday by the Celtics, expect the very best Golden State and Green has to offer against Milwaukee as they look to put that Boston game behind them

Despite numerous signs pointing to value here, Green is a forgotten man on DraftKings and grades out extremely well from a leverage perspective. He is projected to be in just 2.90% of lineups but has a 8.80% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his volatility and propensity to pick up technical fouls, Green undoubtedly has massive upside at $6,200.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Grizzlies-76ers: Nicolas Batum

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 5.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,300

Longtime NBA veteran Nicolas Batum is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $4,300. Although Batum is usually more of a secondary rotation piece when Joel Embiid is playing, he’s playing big minutes right now for a 76ers front court that continues to search for production. Although Batum is certainly not the most exciting player to roster in the year 2024, Stokastic’s tools have him as the clear top cheap differentiator on the board.

Batum is projected to be optimal 5.90% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 1.60% of lineups projected to roster him, it’s clear why Batum looks so appealing from a leverage perspective. While it’s highly unlikely that Batum puts up a score that’s needed to win tournaments, his $4,300 price tag opens doors to roster construction that otherwise would be closed.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out Stokastic’s NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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