Sunday brings a solid seven-game featured slate with a 6 p.m. ET tip off on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Nikola Jokic appears to be an intriguing decision point, while Orlando has the best fantasy-point-per-dollar plays against the Charlotte Hornets. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, November 26
Core Play of the Day — Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 70.57 | FanDuel: 67.1
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 13.7% | FanDuel: 19.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,800 | FanDuel: $12,800
Nikola Jokic has a median fantasy point projection that is 16 points higher than Jayson Tatum. That is a wide gap considering there are a dozen teams in action tonight. However, if we look at the optimal lineups run on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using the 1 p.m. ET projections, we can see that the best lineup with and without the Joker are separated by less than 3Â fantasy points.
Next, using the Stokastic Lineup Generator without any favored players or lineup types (balanced, contrarian or chalky), we can see that while Jokic is recommended in 40% of the 20 lineup set, which is more than double his currently projected popularity, he is not overwhelming the player pool.
DraftKings is led by Derrick Rose, with a reasonable $4,000 salary and a projection of 19.62 fantasy points in 21 minutes off the bench against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Next it is a pair of Orlando Magic players in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner in a terrific matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. In this player portfolio, five of the 20 lineups include two center-only players.
FanDuel is similar, with Rose and Banchero at the top, though Al Horford is slotting into the mix, which makes sense since Kristaps Porzingis is out with an injury against the Atlanta Hawks. Mike Conley is also popping up, but that is likely a function of needing to roster two point guards on FanDuel.
So we can see that Jokic is someone we should consider having more than the field, but he is not necessarily a must-play. Most of the Denver starting lineup has a questionable tag, though Jokic (back), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) and Reggie Jackson (back) are all expected to play tonight, with just Aaron Gordon (heel) a game-time decision. Jamal Murray is getting close to a return, but it won’t be tonight.
The Nuggets are home favorites with an 11.5 advantage over the San Antonio Spurs, but keep in mind that Denver has now lost four of the last five games and five of the last seven. Full disclosure, each of those losses was on the road, but the Nuggets cannot be taking any opponent lightly at this point in time.
Cole Anthony: Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 30.16 | FanDuel: 28.85
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 30.8% | FanDuel: 19.5%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $6,300
Cole Anthony is a strong option, even though he is coming off the bench. Typically he is playing just shy of 30 minutes, and we need to remember that Markelle Fultz is out with a knee issue that has allowed him to appear in only one game since Halloween. Charlotte has the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league this season, allowing 119.8 points per 100 possessions. The Hornets also play at an above-average pace and should coax the Magic into playing up-tempo.
Terry Rozier is expected to return tonight for Charlotte after missing nine games with a groin issue. PJ Washington should be back as well after a one-game absence with a sore foot. That should help the Hornets keep things a little closer tonight, which means that the key Orlando players will be in line for full minutes.
Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Goga Bitadze and Jalen Suggs are all worthy of our consideration across the various DFS sites. Bitadze does fall out of favor on FanDuel, where we can play only one center, so be sure to keep that in mind given that Nic Claxton, Al Horford, Jakob Poeltl and Nikola Vucevic are all in play, along with Jokic as detailed above.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
Damian Lillard has a strong value on his +300 double-double prop, which is currently available at three different sports books. This is ranging from a low of +184 to +300, which is an absurd range. Using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting and searching through all available wagers is a savvy strategy. There is currently a Black Friday Sale that is available until Monday, with a 50% off promo code BLACKFRIDAY — see details here.
NBA Bet Pro currently has the 34-year-old projected for 35.6 minutes 28.26 points and 7.63 assists. The “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager) are +232, which indicates this bet has close to 20% expected ROI when looking at an extended time horizon.
Lillard has recorded 10 or more assists in three of his last six games. This afternoon he is taking on his former squad, which should lead to some spirited action. This wager is not going to cash every time, but with a 30% expected win rate and the inefficient lines currently available, we will want to act quickly.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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