Friday wraps up the workweek with a frontloaded six-game featured slate, with the main contests tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Jaren Jackson Jr. is a strong tournament play, and Orlando and Washington are bringing some value options. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, December 1
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 37.67 | FanDuel: 38.15
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 12.6% | FanDuel: 23.1%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,000
While it was not exactly the statistical path we imagined for Jaren Jackson Jr. after he was the featured player in this article on Wednesday, he still got to the endgame in style. That makes it five of his last six games with at least 33 fantasy points as a floor, culminating in 48.7 fantasy points against Utah, courtesy of six blocks. Jackson is not a great rebounder, but he is usually in the mix for 7 to 8 per game, and when his shot is falling, he can easily top 20 points against any team. The blocks and steals are the differentiator, particularly on DFS sites that award 3 fantasy points for each.
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year had gone an uncharacteristic nine games with one or fewer blocks, but he has course-corrected with nine in the last two games. Dallas is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league during the month of November while also allowing 118.5 points per 100 possessions through these same 14 games. Memphis does play again tomorrow, but since this team is going nowhere fast, there is no reason to think coach Taylor Jenkins will save the key players for tomorrow.
Depending on your DFS site of choice, several Memphis players are popping up in the top 20 popularity ranks. In addition to Jackson, DraftKings and FanDuel both have Desmond Bane and Derrick Rose, while DraftKings also has Jaylen Nowell. In a wild twist, Rose actually is projected to be on just over 50% of all large-field tournament rosters tonight. That certainly feels like a trap, though the salary is VERY enticing to say the least.
Rose actually joined the starting lineup on Wednesday for the first time in six weeks, and he responded with just over 30 fantasy points in 27 minutes. That gives him an average of just over 25 fantasy points in the last three games, though his torrid shooting — 20 of 32 for 62.5% — is clearly not sustainable. Rose has also played four games in the last nine days … the last time he did that this season, he ended up missing nearly three weeks with sore knees. Caveat Emptor!
Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards
Orlando plays again tomorrow, though travelling from Washington to Brooklyn is not that daunting of a trip. The Magic rolled up a 139-120 victory against the Wizards on Wednesday. The game was so lopsided that both teams emptied the bench for most of the fourth quarter, which led to some disappointment for the DFS gamers riding with the starters in this tilt.
There are only a dozen teams comprising the player pool tonight, which is light for a Friday. Of course, that is leading to a heavy slate Saturday, then the whole league is off on Sunday in preparation for the NBA In-Season Tournament. Three teams played yesterday and six play again tomorrow, so we could again see some in-game rest for the Magic players if we get a reprisal of Wednesday’s results.
This is hard to plan for other than to keep in the back of our mind when assessing various risk/reward outcomes and also what the field is doing. Heck, earlier this week the Denver understudies knocked off the Clippers in Los Angeles, and even last night Chicago upset the visiting Milwaukee Bucks without the services of DeMar DeRozan.
It is also worth noting that Paolo Banchero twisted his ankle in the third quarter on Wednesday and did not return. It sounds like he is going to be playing tonight, but it is worth considering when making decisions. Most gamers are not aware since the standings do not really matter for DFS, but Orlando has climbed to the second-best record in the Eastern Conference and has won its last eight games, which is the longest active winning streak in the league.
Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and even Cole Anthony coming off the bench look like the most well-rounded DFS targets. Anthony continues to get a boost while Markelle Fultz is dealing with knee soreness, as it opens up a path for Anthony to see significant fourth quarter run with the closing unit.
Goga Bitadze continues to start in place of Wendell Carter Jr., but it has been a few weeks now, so there is not much easily obtainable value left with his current salary,= outside of him racking up a double-double with a few blocks. Moritz Wagner is also a tough sell with center-only positional eligibility, though if Banchero were a surprise scratch, this duo would get an uptick in minutes and opportunities since Wagner can also play power forward against his former team.
Jonathan Isaac has missed the last two games with an ankle issue, but even if the oft-injured wing returns, he has been on the court for only 12 to 15 minutes in most games this season. Anthony Black, Gary Harris and Joe Ingles could become relevant, depending on the availability of Isaac and Banchero, as well as what happens with the 11 other teams on the docket.
Three feels like a reasonable maximum limit on the Magic players for most lineups, with that being relaxed to four if Banchero is out for precautionary measures.
From the Washington side, Kyle Kuzma is always in play, particularly as the main offensive option, and with his ability to collect rebounds and assists, he typically has a solid fantasy floor. Orlando has been solid on defense, even with the various injured players, so this is not a walk in the park — but then again, the Wizards can coax most opposing squads into playing up-tempo.
Depending on what other value materializes on other teams, we could be painted into a corner by the likes of Danilo Gallinari, Landry Shamet and Corey Kispert. Kispert at least has a real role on this team as a scorer off the bench, and while he is mostly a one-category fantasy contributor, he at least has minutes and opportunity. Gallinari is the veteran presence who is going to skip back-to-backs and be unlikely to play more than 18 minutes in any particular game, but he is still close to a fantasy-point-per-minute producer, but even a “good game” probably sees him in the mid-20s for fantasy points.
Shamet is a known commodity as he embarks on his sixth NBA campaign, with his fifth different team. He is a replacement-level DFS scorer who rarely tops 0.8 fantasy points per minute. He is eight years younger than Gallinari, so he does not have the same brittle injury history and can play upwards of 20 minutes without spontaneously combusting on the court. Additionally, he is a better defender than Kispert, but that really is not much of a differentiator on a team that does not play defense.
Among the starters, Deni Avdija is a better play on FanDuel for his salary, and Daniel Gafford gets the nod on DraftKings as a differentiation play where there is a two-center limit.
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Additional NBA Building Blocks Pick — Sports Betting Opportunities
CJ McCollum returned to action, playing 28 minutes against Philadelphia on Wednesday after being sidelined on Nov. 4 with a partially collapsed lung. While he has not yet been cleared to travel via plane, that is tomorrow’s question since the Pelicans are hosting the San Antonio Spurs tonight.
McCollum in an in intriguing option with his over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop, currently available at -113, which a slightly negative opportunity, per the -104 “True Odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), which indicate there is an expected ROI of nearly -4%. That does not make this a bad bet, it just does not have any inherent value at the current number.
NBA Bet Pro currently has the former Portland Trail Blazer projected for 29.9 minutes, 18.51 points, 4.17 rebounds and 5.37 assists for 28.05 PRA. While the alternate lines have not yet been released, it is worth considering McCollum for the over at the 26.5, 27.5, 28.5 and 29.5 PRA thresholds. Clearly there is a higher level of risk, climbing each rung of the ladder but decreasing the bet size accordingly is a savvy way to take advantage of convictions on a particular prop.
For this matchup, the Spurs are on a back-to-back, having lost in San Antonio last night 137-135 to the Atlanta Hawks. The team already does not prioritize defense, and without any premium on-ball defenders, the hope for this wager is that McCollum will splash a few 3-pointers on his way to 30 PRA, with some combination of 20-ish points and 10 combined rebounds and assists. McCollum is a good rebounder for a guard, and he has averaged around 4.5 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game during his time with the Pelicans. He also averages nearly three made 3-pointers per game, so dropping a couple extra is in the cards.
If the imaginary initial wager were $10 on over 25.5 PRA, then adjusting as we head up the ladder, something along the lines of $8, $6, $4 and $2 across the five rungs makes sense. Keep in mind that you never want to force a ladder and not all sportsbooks offer the alternate lines. These should only be employed in specific situations where you feel you have a strong conviction on something occurring that is well above or below the standard prop.
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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tonight New York and San Antonio are on the second leg of a back-to-back, while Dallas, Denver, Memphis, New Orleans, Orlando and Phoenix are on the front end of back-to-back games.
That is likely to add to the wonky nature of what is now the default level of chaos that is NBA DFS. Be sure to get all the latest news and analysis by tuning into the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Vivid Picks – new users, use this link to receive a first deposit match up to $500 as well as a risk free first play up to $25!
