We have nine games on the NHL docket tonight and there is no shortage of elite talent like Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, and Quinn Hughes on the board. Let’s look at some of the top options and then dig for a bit of cheap value in our best NHL DFS picks today.
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NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL at ANA): DraftKings – $9,600 | FanDuel – $10,200
MacKinnon has seen his shot rate drop as he was a shade over 5.0 shots per game over his first 11 contests of the season, falling to 4.3 over his last 11 outings. That 11-game drop has still seen him manage 18 points and four DraftKings shot bonuses as he remains the focal point of the offense. The injuries across the team have given him more ice time, too, as he’s skated at least 20:30 in seven straight appearances, averaging 23:10 in that span.
Colorado visits an Anaheim team that has been on a slide. They are 2-10 in their last 12 games, allowing over four goals a game and ranking 29th by expected goals against per minute. They remain the most penalized team in the league by a wide margin, giving up 4.5 power plays per game where no other team is over 4.0. The Avalanche are third by power play opportunities per game this year, so MacKinnon should get his fair share of PP ice time.
Stokastic projection for the main slate have MacKinnon clearing the next-closest center by over 5 DK points and 6 FD points. That is a huge chasm, and sets him apart from everyone else tonight. He can be used as a one-off, and is definitely cash-game viable, but watch for heavy ownership in tournaments, whether in a stack or not.
Sean Couturier (PHI at PIT): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,800
Though not excessively productive of late – 7 points in 10 games going back a few weeks – Couturier does have 34 shots in those games. That has given him three DraftKings shot bonuses in that time. He has formed a formidable duo with Travis Konecny as the team is outshooting the opposition 77-50 in their time together at 5-on-5. They are doubling the high-danger shot attempts (32) from their opponents (16) so there is a lot of good offensive generation going on here.
Quietly, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been on a defensive decline. The team ranks 21st by expected goals against at 5-on-5 since Halloween, worse than teams like Buffalo and Calgary, and just ahead of teams like Ottawa and Anaheim. They have gotten the best goaltending in the league (.948 save percentage) and that’s hiding their defensive woes. It will regress, and Couturier’s line is more than good enough to get that ball rolling.
On the two sites, Couturier ranks 2nd and 4th on DK and FD, respectively, by point projection among centers in his price range. It gives him solid point-per-dollar value for his cost, and the way he’s been shooting lately means he is in play as a one-off option. However, his correlation with Konecny means a stack is preferred for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Alex DeBrincat (DET at MTL): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $7,800
Though DeBrincat was excellent with Dylan Larkin as his center – 2.6 expected goals and 4.4 actual goals/60 at 5-on-5 with that duo on the ice – he’s been just as good without him, as the numbers are nearly identical without him as his center. Larkin is expected back in the lineup tonight, and they likely will be paired together, but this is to highlight that DeBrincat can find success regardless.
Going into Montreal is the big part of the appeal for our winger. The first advantage is that the Canadiens allow the fifth-most power plays per game while averaging one power play goal against per contest this season. Detroit, meanwhile, is drawing the second-most power plays. The second advantage is the home team is now missing six regulars from their lineup due to injury, including half their blue line, and that has crushed their defensive stats of late by ranking 29th by expected goals against at 5-on-5 over the last four weeks.
Of all wingers on FanDuel priced under $8,000, DeBrincat ranks fourth by point projection tonight. It gives him much better value there than on DraftKings. That elevated DK price will mean low single-digit ownership in tournaments, though, and that is ideal for that format.
Andrei Svechnikov (CAR vs. BUF): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $4,900
Carolina is consistent with their line matching and the team sends out their second line – including Svechnikov tonight – against opposing second lines. That means the Dylan Cozens/Zach Benson duo from Buffalo, and the Sabres have been outchanced 38-22 in their time together. Conversely, the Svechnikov-Jesperi Kotkaniemi duo is out-chancing the opposition 52-29 in their ice on the ice at 5-on-5. It is a lopsided matchup in favor of Carolina.
This winger hasn’t hit full stride since returning from his knee surgery, but he does lead the team’s forwards in shots per minute over his last five games. He managed five points in those five games, so he may be turning a corner. He gets a very good matchup tonight and his shot volume provides some security to his floor.
Svechnikov tops Stokastic’s fantasy projections tonight for wingers on either site priced under $5,000. It gives him excellent point-per-dollar value regardless of where he’s rostered and that, combined with his shot rate, makes him a potential one-off option.
Yegor Sharangovich (CGY vs. VAN): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $3,800
Over his last five games, skating on Calgary’s top line and top power play unit, Sharangovich has posted two goals, two assists, and 13 shots. He has managed at least 17 minutes in four of those five appearances, and over 21 minutes twice. He has seen his role and usage improve dramatically and the offensive rewards have been apparent. Sharangovich’s line is riding a bit hot percentagewise by shooting 14.2% at 5-on-5, but even 10% would have them well above average by goals per minute.
If there is one area where Vancouver has not seen much improvement, it’s the penalty kill. Since Halloween, they are 25th by shots against and goals against per minute while short-handed. Our cheap winger has been skating on that top unit for Calgary, and this matchup gives him a good opportunity to get on the score sheet with the man advantage.
Sharangovich leads all wingers by FanDuel point projections for those priced under $4,000. He is lower on DraftKings, but still among the top-10 options and it gives him very good point-per-dollar value regardless of where he’s used. He can be rostered a salary-saving one-off option tonight.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Alex Pietrangelo (VGK vs. WSH): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $6,600
It hasn’t been much of a sample on the top power play unit for Pietrangelo, but Vegas is generating more shot attempts, more shots, and more goals with him there without the injured Shea Theodore. That was the case in a much larger sample last year, though, so he may be better suited for the role. In four games without Theodore in the lineup, Pietrangelo has skated at least 24 minutes in each outing, averaging 25:29. He is also averaging 2.5 shots and 3.0 blocks per game, so there are lots of peripherals to support a high DFS floor, too.
On DK tonight, Pietrangelo ranks second among all defenders by point projection, and is still third over on FD. That he ranks 4th and 9th by cost on the two sites, respectively, means he carries a good point-per-dollar mark for his price. He can be used by himself in tournament formats or as part of a Vegas stack.
Jake McCabe (TOR vs. BOS): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $3,700
In eight games since returning from injury, McCabe has seen 22:02 in ice time on average, a number that was 19:33 in his six full games before injury. He has managed 18 blocks with that additional TOI, and with Toronto allowing a lot more shots over the last five weeks than typical, he could get lots of chances to get his body in front of some pucks. He even has two assists and nine shots in his last five games alone, so there has been some offensive involvement as well. With Toronto’s injuries on their blue line, he should have stable usage.
On the two sites, McCabe trails only Marcus Pettersson for point projections among rearguards in their price range. It gives him excellent value for this slate so he can be used to save some salary tonight regardless of where he’s rostered.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Thatcher Demko (VAN at CGY): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,300
For the second time this week, Demko appears in this column. His last outing went well DFS-wise, saving 40 of 44 shots even if he lost the game. Tonight, he faces a Calgary team that ranks sixth in the league (second on this slate) in shot attempts per minute at all strengths since Halloween. These two teams faced off a couple of weeks ago (Demko didn’t start that one) and Calgary managed 38 shots on goal. It speaks to the shot volume the Vancouver netminder could face tonight, and his sterling .926 save percentage could mean a lot of saves on that shot volume.
Demko is projected among the top-10 goalies tonight by expected save total, per the Stokastic GoalieStats section. At a moderate price with (potentially) high shot volume incoming, he is a target for tournament lineups.
For a cheaper FanDuel goalie, consider Connor Ingram (ARI, $7,900) who projects well in a reasonable matchup against St. Louis.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
VGK1: Ivan Barbashev – Jack Eichel – Mark Stone
These columns have long been pointing out just how bad Vegas forward Chandler Stephenson has been this season and, mercifully, he’s been moved away from their top stars. When Mark Stone does not have Stephenson next to him, for example, the team generates a preposterous 56% more shot attempts and nearly doubles their expected goals-for per minute. Stone skating with Eichel puts the team’s two top offensive threats together, and they scored twice in their game on Thursday. Eichel has 24 shots over his last five games and has an elite winger next to him now, so this should be a productive trio.
This trio is not expensive tonight, coming in at $16,800 on DK and $18,800 on FD. That could drive up their ownership – they may be double-digits on FanDuel – but they are also 7th and 5th, respectively, by top-2 stack probability per the Top Stacks tool. They have a reasonable chance of success tonight and allow a solid secondary stack alongside them.
CAR2: Andrei Svechnikov – Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Teuvo Teräväinen
As mentioned in the section on Svechnikov, this is a good 5-on-5 matchup for this line. Beyond that, the two wingers on this three-man unit are also on the top power play, and Buffalo is 24th by shots against per minute while short-handed since Halloween. It gives them a good matchup with the man advantage, so this line should have positive matchups at all offensive strengths tonight. The Teräväinen-Kotkaniemi duo has been good, too, generating 3.1 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, so Svechnikov steps into a good spot.
This line is even cheaper than that Vegas line and it is likely to drive up their ownership. They are carrying negative leverage on the Top Stacks tool, which means higher ownership than top-2 probability. On DraftKings, at least, the ownership should remain easily under 10%, and cheap prices mean a very good line can be stacked alongside them for tournaments.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
