NHL DFS Picks Today: The Time Is Now To Get The Loot (November 28)

There are 10 games in the NHL tonight and maybe only one or two lopsided matchups (Anaheim/Vancouver in particular). It means that there are a lot of teams, lines, and players that are viable tonight so let’s break it down.

As always, Stoakstic members should check the Discord before lock for lineup and injury information.

NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays

NHL DFS Picks Today: Center

Elias Pettersson (VAN vs. ANA): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,800

It has been a bit of a slide for Pettersson of late with zero goals and two assists and 10 shots over his last five games. He is getting back winger Andrei Kuzmenko for this one, though, and with him, they were still very productive at 5-on-5: 3.6 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes over the seven previous games leading to Kuzmenko’s recent scratches. The problem had been their defence, which was leading to more goals against, and thus the scratch. For DFS, we care about scoring goals, and they were still doing that in recent weeks.

Pettersson’s appeal for tonight is the matchup against Anaheim. The Ducks are giving up 4.5 power plays per game, the most in the league with no other team over 4.0. Vancouver has an excellent power play and are drawing the 10th-most man-advantage opportunities per game. Nearly 45% of Pettersson’s production this season is with the man advantage so a power play-reliant star is getting one of the top power play matchups in the league.

Pettersson is ranked 5th and 4th on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, by Stokastic’s fantasy skater projections tonight. It gives him very good point-per-dollar value, even at his price, though the matchup will likely mean high ownership (early ownership runs have him around 15% on DK).

Michael McLeod (NJ vs. NYI): DraftKings – $3,000 | FanDuel – $4,100

The return of Nico Hischier to New Jersey’s lineup has pushed McLeod back to a third-line role, but that’s not such a bad thing. He is skating on a line with Alex Holtz and in 34 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time together, they have helped the team generate 30 shots and five goals, which are very high numbers for that number of minutes. A much larger sample is needed before any conclusions are drawn, but both players have taken steps forward in the league and the early results are promising.

McLeod will be squaring off against the opposing third line from New York tonight and the duo of Oliver Wahlstrom/Jean-Gabriel Pageau have been routinely outplayed, getting outshot 59-39 in their time together at 5-on-5. Elite goaltending – not unusual for the Islanders – has saved them from looking much worse. It is a solid matchup for McLeod, even if his ice time levels have dropped to 13-14 minutes a night rather than 16-or-more.

Stokastic point projections have McLeod in the top-10 among all centers priced under $3,500 on DK and $4,500 on FD. It gives McLeod a very good point-per-dollar value on the former site and passable value on the latter. He can be used as a salary-saving one-off at his price and in this matchup.

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NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger

William Nylander (TOR vs. FLA): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $10,100

Even though he went pointless in his last two outings, Nylander skated over 22 and 26 minutes in those two contests. He has gone 15 straight games with at least three shots on goal, averaging 4.7 shots per appearance in that span. Adding Tyler Bertuzzi to his line had helped them dominate, but he has been moved to the top line with Auston Matthews for this game. Going back to last year, that duo has been elite offensively together at 5-on-5 by averaging 3.8 expected goals and 4.4 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Florida is visiting tonight, and they played last night in Ottawa. It brings in a tired team that will also be going to their backup goalie. Now that he’s on the top line, Nylander will get the top line matchup from the Panthers that has been great defensively this year. It makes it a bit tougher sledding, but he’s also seen a huge upgrade in centers by moving from John Tavares to Matthews, so that helps balance out the difficult matchup.

Among all wingers on the slate, this winger ranks third by point projections tonight on both sites. He is also being priced as a top-3 flank, so the value is fine, not great. He can be used as a one-off option or part of a Toronto tournament stack.

Andrei Svechnikov (CAR at PHI): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $5,000

It took him 12 games after returning from knee surgery, but Svechnikov scored his first goal of the year in Carolina’s game on Sunday. Since getting back to the lineup on October 27th, the 23-year-old is around the 95th percentile in shot attempts per minute. Even with depressed ice time, it has helped him to two DraftKings shot bonuses in his 12 outings. He had been missing the net a lot this season  – only 39% of his shot attempts hit the net in his first eight games – but that has been correcting itself lately, sitting at 48% of attempts ending up on net over his last five games. Add that to a four-game point streak and it seems he’s finding his stride.

An additional bonus tonight is that after being moved onto a line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis at the end of their last game, he’ll start there tonight. That trio has been elite offensively over the years, creating 4.2 expected goals and 4.3 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in nearly 350 minutes together. It is a great spot for Svechnikov to be as he’s rounding into form.

Svechnikov ranks sixth by DraftKings projections, and third on FanDuel, for all wingers tonight priced under $6,000 on either site. Ice time is an ongoing issue but he’s not being priced as if we need him to skate 19-20 minutes, either. There is a reason for using him as a mid-priced one-off option.

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Eeli Tolvanen (SEA at CHI): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $5,600

Over the last two weeks, Tolvanen is up to 16:58 in ice time per night, on average. That is much better than the 15:19 he averaged over the first month of the season. That recent seven-game stretch includes two goals, six points, and 18 shots on goal. He will avoid any top matchups going into Chicago and while none of the home team’s lines are great defensively, any little edge matters.

For the entire month of November, Tolvanen has been Seattle’s most productive forward by leading them in points per minute as well as shots per minute. On the year, his line has been excellent by generating 3.0 expected goals and 3.3 actual goal per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. With Tolvanen at the top of his game right now, his line being very good all season, and a great matchup against Chicago, things are lined up to give him a very good chance at producing tonight.

Of all the wingers priced under $4,500 on DK tonight, Tolvanen ranks second by overall point projection. His elevated price on FD makes him a bit worse of a value on that site, relatively speaking, but he still projects high enough for good value. His line is cheap in DFS, and that should draw ownership on DK (much less so on FD). All the same, he can be used in a stack or by himself for tournament lineups.

NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense

Alex Pietrangelo (VGK at EDM): DraftKings – $6,800 | FanDuel – $6,500

Vegas played last night in Calgary and with two regular defensemen out of the lineup, Pietrangelo had to skate over 24 minutes. He has now crossed the 24-minute mark in three straight games and has managed seven shots and 14 blocked shots in that span. On the year, he is averaging 2.5 shots and over 3.0 blocks per game, which is exceptional peripheral prowess. With the injuries, his ice time is assured, and he stands a good chance of producing a lot of peripherals. Add that to his top power play role and there is a lot of upside here tonight, even on a back-to-back, and even at his price.

Being back-to-back on the road means Pietrangelo’s projection is lower than other top options like Roman Josi and Quinn Hughes. However, he still projects as the number-6 defenseman on DK and number-10 blue liner on FD, and that price will keep his ownership well under 10% on the two sites. That makes him a target for tournaments.

JJ Moser (ARI vs. TB): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – $4,500

Arizona is still missing multiple defensemen from their lineup and, like Pietrangelo above, this has meant more minutes for Moser. He has surpassed the 22-minute mark in five of his last six games, and he’s registered a DraftKings block bonus in half those outings. After starting the season pointless for six games, he now has managed 10 points in his last 14 appearances. There is both production and peripheral potential here. Tampa Bay is in town and playing their second game in as many nights, with their backup in net, so there is a chance for Moser to have a successful DFS performance.

On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Moser is carrying a top-5 projection for all defenders priced under $4,000 and $5,000, respectively. He should have even lower ownership than Pietrangelo, and makes a nice, cheap option on the back end for this slate.

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NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie

Juuse Saros (NSH vs. PIT): DraftKings – $7,600 | FanDuel – $7,500

With Pittsburgh in town, there’s a chance for good volume against Saros tonight; the Penguins lead the league in shots per minute at all strengths. Saros had a very tough start to the year but is showing signs of a turnaround, winning his last three starts and posting a .920 save percentage in that stretch. He has generally been an elite goalie in his career, so he can be forgiven for having a bad month under a new coach. His recent play is much more indicative of his talent, and he could see a lot of rubber in a home matchup. At a reasonable price on both sites, Saros is fine to use as his projection is about the middle of goalies tonight, in line with his pricing.

Top NHL DFS Stacks Today

VAN1: Ilya Mikheyev – Elias Pettersson – Andrei Kuzmenko

As mentioned in the section on Pettersson, this line was still humming along offensively, it was the goals against that forced some brief changes. Now that they are back together, the team has re-assembled their top scoring line this season. Even if Mikheyev is not on the team’s top power play unit – which is the biggest reason for the recommendation – he is still on a 32-goal/82-game pace for the season because of how good the trio is outside the power play.

Even with spread out ownership tonight, this line could be one of the top-5 owned lines on the night. In such a tremendous matchup, though, double-digit ownership isn’t a big concern. Reasonable pricing should have this line in consideration for any DFS tournament.

NSH1: Filip Forsberg – Ryan O’Reilly – Gustav Nyquist

This Nashville unit has been phenomenal for the team, creating 3.4 expected goals and 5.7 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Even if they’re running a bit hot percentage-wise, they are legitimately dominant. Forsberg alone has had an incredible November with 10 goals, 17 points, and 47 shots in 11 games. They will face off against a top Pittsburgh line that has been trading chances back and forth all season, which is good news for this Nashville threesome. Beyond that, all three players are on the team’s top power play unit, and they are tied for the third-most power plays drawn per game at 4.1.

The Stokastic Top Stacks tool has this line coming in with positive leverage on the two sites, meaning a higher top-2 stack probability than ownership (with much better leverage on FanDuel). Their perfect correlation and solid matchup brings them in play regardless of the tournament DFS players are engaging.

Stokastic’s NHL Premium subscription is available in either weekly or monthly packages and includes NHL DFS projections, top stacks, expert Discord and more! Join today!

*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick

Michael Clifford
Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

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