Opportunity is the name of the game when playing DFS. A player can’t score fantasy points unless they have the opportunity to score. In NBA DFS, there is an easy way to try and predict which players will have more chances to rack up fantasy points than others. When gauging a player’s chance at opportunity, we want to look at their game environment. Any game that is above a 225 total is a great place to start as those games are more likely to have efficient offense versus mediocre defense. Let’s see tonight’s top two spots that meet these criteria and should be popular NBA DFS game environments among the field.
Today’s Top NBA DFS Game Environments (March 14)
Phoenix Suns at Boston Celtics
Total: 226
In what could be an NBA Finals preview, the Suns are in Boston to take on the Celtics in a game that features two of the best offenses in the league. Both teams play at a medium pace compared to others, but their offensive efficiencies are what makes this game so appealing. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 for offensive efficiency, with both averaging 114 points per game in their last five games.
The Celtics are without Kristaps Porzingis, and Jaylen Brown is questionable to play tonight with a hip injury. If Brown is a go tonight, I will have no problem rostering him considering the tear he has been on. Brown is averaging 45 DraftKings points in his last five games and gets a sneaky good matchup against the Suns. The Suns tend to struggle against shot creators ranking a measly 15th for defense against shooting guard/small forward. Brown is projected for 39.72 DraftKings points with shooting guard/small forward eligibility at $7,900 on DraftKings. Jayson Tatum at $9,800 looks great tonight as he is projected for 50 DraftKings points in 36 minutes of action. Phoenix struggles to guard shot creators, and that is exactly what Tatum is. He is the top-rated player for the Celtics in the Boom/Bust Tool, with a 31% boom chance and an 11% chance at being optimal. Target Boston’s shot creators against Phoenix tonight.
The Suns; Devin Booker returned from a four-game absence due to an ankle sprain and looked to be feeling fine. He tallied a 27-point, seven-assist, six-rebound stat line on 50% shooting while playing 38 minutes. Booker is priced at $8,800 on DraftKings, which is the first time since January that he is below $9,000. Devin is projected for 41.85 DraftKings points in 37 minutes for 1.13 fantasy points per minute. Bradley Beal is another oddly priced player for this Suns team, with his price tag being $6,700. Even with Booker and Kevin Durant playing, Beal plays an important role for this Suns team, averaging around a 25% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute. With his ownership being projected for just 2%, I love getting to this price tag on Beal in large-field GPP tournaments. Overall, this will be a great game to watch, and both offenses should be firing on all cylinders.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder
Total: 235.5
This game features the highest total on the slate, with the next-closest total being 227 — an 8.5-point difference. The number being so high is due to Dallas being a top-10 team in pace while ranking in the bottom 10 for defensive efficiency. Luka Doncic exited last night’s game with a hamstring injury and is out for tonight’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The first player that will benefit extremely from Doncic’s absence will be point guard/shooting guard Kyrie Irving, who is priced at $8,400. In five games without Doncic this season, Irving is averaging 52 DraftKings points and a usage rate of 32.2%. He will become an amazing value play for his price tag and could go somewhat low owned as a result of this game being the last one to lock on the slate. As for other value plays to look out for, Tim Hardaway Jr. at $4,000 could be inserted into the starting lineup and would be a great option with shooting guard/small forward eligibility. The Mavericks look like they could be a great spot for value tonight.
Keeping in mind that this game has important injury news, it could be a good idea to be overweight on point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at $10,400. With the possibility of Irving becoming a top play on the slate, Gilgeous-Alexander is in an amazing spot against the Mavericks, who rank 28th in defense against point guard. Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 54 DraftKings points in 35 minutes for 1.54 per minute. Getting to a lot of Gilgeous-Alexander opens up the ability to swap to Irving and upgrade some other pieces. Gilgeous-Alexander has a 36% boom chance in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, sixth highest on the slate. Load up on Gilgeous-Alexander and make sure to pay attention to the injury report throughout the night.
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