Bay vs Bears Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 9 SNF Top-10

Tampa Bay Overview

Linebacker Yaya Diaby (knee) is out, though wide receiver Emeka Egbuka (foot) did practice in full on Thursday and Friday, so he should be available after missing the last two games.

Quarterback

It is hard to get a good read on Baker Mayfield, who is dealing with the aftereffects of a dislocated right (throwing) thumb suffered in Week 3, costing him the next three games. He has attempted just 14 passes in the two tilts since returning to action, with Week 7 being a lopsided 43-13 laugher in Carolina and then of course last Sunday’s rain and wind courtesy of a storm centered on Raymond James Stadium.

The Buccaneers are happy to run the ball, plus with Mayfield needing to manage his thumb injury until he likely has surgery in the offseason, there is extra motivation to keep things conservative. Our best strategy is to turn to the sports wagering market which has Mayfield for around 19 completions on 30 pass attempts for 210 passing yards, with +150 for o1.5 passing touchdowns.

Five opposing quarterbacks have tossed multiple touchdowns against the Bears and three have tallied 320 or more passing yards. Chicago’s defense was bolstered by the trade for defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons who has earned Pro Bowl accolades four times in his seven seasons, with two Second-Team All-Pro nominations and he was First-Team All-Pro in 2025.

Tampa has a 21 point team total so it makes sense that the team likely sticks with the running game, but if the Pewter Pirates fall behind by multiple scores, we could see a more aggressive passing attack.

Running Back

Bucky Irving had a career high 170 rushing yards last Sunday on 27 carries, with Kenny Gainwell posting his personal best as well with 140 on 25 totes as the Bucs had a franchise record 324 yards on the ground. Atlanta knew the runs were coming and they just could not do anything to shut things down.

Tonight will be tougher sledding as the Bears have allowed only Bijan Robinson ( 9/61/0) and Braelon Allen (14/59/0) to rush for more than 35 yards in the last five matchups.

The playing time has settled into a 55/45 split favoring Irving, though the duo each had 30 offensive snaps against the Falcons, with none going to Sean Tucker. Irving and Gainwell are both capable receivers, though Irving does have a massive 33-6 advantage in redzone opportunities, including 14-1 in the last two tilts.

Gainwell’s advantage is his salary, which is $5,000 lower on DraftKings and a $4,600 savings on FanDuel. This duo can be played together, capturing the majority of the back field opportunities, though the “optimal” strategy of course is the solo approach for the outcome that something befalls one, allowing the other to be the lead back.

Wide Receivers

Egbuka should be back after missing two games with a foot injury, which is likely to send David Sills V back to the shadow realm. Even after missing two games, he leads the team with 49 targets, seeing 16 in Week 6 as UDFA Jalon Daniels locked onto him in the OT loss against Pittsburgh.

Chris Godwin (35 targets) looks older as his many injuries have finally caught up with him and while he is still a trusted pass catcher, the upside is muted in the run focused offense. Rookie Ted Hurst III has a 61% route rate and 27% of the teams air yards, but he is mostly running medium and deeper routes to help keep defenses from overloading the box. This makes him a sacrificial piece to keep the offensive priorities humming along and he has yet to surpass 40 yards in a game, with just 24 targets on the season.

Tez Johnson rounds things out and though he should see a target or two, he is only $200 cheaper than Hurst on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel, which is hardly an incentive for accepting the playing time downgrade.

Tight Ends

Cade Otton has been pedestrian at best this year, ranking third on the team with 30 targets and producing only four receptions for 29 yards over the last four games. He will be on the field for 90% or so of the offensive action, which is key for the single-game format, but we need to go into this with open eyes and understand he is no longer a needle mover and he has just one redzone target since the opener.

Payne Durham and Bauer Sharp will at least be on the field as blockers, though they have a scant three targets between them this season. For perspective, Durham had only four looks all of last year and of course Sharp was still in college.

Kickers and DST

Chase McLaughlin leads the league making all 19 of his field goal attempts, including all four from beyond 50 yards. Over the last two-plus seasons he is 23 of 26 (88%) which is stellar.

Tampa did not have any sacks in Sunday’s rainy game, but they did intercept Michael Penix Jr. four times and they had five quarterback takedowns in the two preceding games against both Bryce Young and Aaron Rodgers.

Chicago Bears Overview

Kyle Monangai (thumb, toe) has been out since Week 4, though he did have a late week limited practice on Friday, earning him the questionable designation. Defensive backs Malik Muhamad II (toe) and Tyrique Stevenson (thumb) are also questionable after limited practice time, with Muhammad also having missed the last game.

Running back Zavier Scott (wrist) and defensive tackle Kentavius Street (knee) were designated for the IR this week and it sound like offensive lineman Braxton Jones (knee) is officially done for the season.

Quarterback

Caleb Williams has suffered only one interception in his 158 attempts across five games, with six passing touchdowns. Both his 104.6 passer rating and 76.9 QBR are personal bests, ranking sixth and third among quarterbacks with at least five starts.

This will be a good test against the Bucs, who have ceded 10 aerial scores against a gaudy 12 interceptions. Williams is also a threat to break containment and though he has just 11 carries for 22 yards since returning from his hamstring injury, there are a couple of kneel downs hiding in that aggregate.

Williams is likely to need to pass, with the Chicago rushing attack slowing down after a torrid start to the season.

Running Back

Tampa has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league this season with only 80.0 per game, with a stingy 3.6 yards per carry and just six touchdowns. Only three opposing ball carriers have topped 50 yards, with Bijan Robinson leading the way with 19/76/0 last week and he is the only one over 60 yards. Chicago is second in the league with 150.8 rushing yards per game, boasting a league best 17 rushing touchdowns and a solid 4.3 yards per carry.

D’Andre Swift tallied a trio of tuddies against Seattle on Monday Night Football, though he managed just 69 yards on a whopping 27 carries, converting three targets into two receptions for another 10 yards. In Week 7 against New England, he faced tough sledding with 78 yards on 22 carries and it was a similar story in the preceding game with 44 yards on 16 totes in Atlanta. The six rushing scores in this stretch are definitely masking the inefficiency of 65 total carries for 191 yards at just 2.9 yards per attempt.

If Kyle Monangai suits up, expectations are that Swift will slide to a 60% snap-share, with Roschon Johnson an Monangai splitting the remainder. Monangai is at $7,000 on DraftKings, which is a punitive cap hit, though his $5,800 salary on FanDuel is doable for those crafting north of two dozen lineups. If he remains out, then Johnson is a viable salary relief play across the various DFS sites.

Wide Receivers

Luther Burden III has been solid with a team leading 56 targets, running routes on 65% of the drop backs. Former University of Washington stalwart Rome Odunze rarely leaves the field, boasting an 80% rout rate, though just 44 targets. Burden also has the redzone advantage with 14 opportunities to the five for Odunze.

Kalif Raymond has consolidated the WR3 role with a solid 34 targets, while the rest of the wideouts have 10 combined through the eight games. Jahdae Walker and Zavion Thomas will likely be on the field for 8-to-10 snaps each and we may even hear their names on the broadcast, though targets are less likely.

Tight Ends

Colston Loveland had only nine targets in the first three games, but he has 28 in the last three and is second on the team with 51 for the season, including 10 in the redzone. Cole Kmet is on the injured reserve, which means more playing time for rookie Sam Roush, though more than a target or two for the former Stanford Cardinal would be a surprise. Fun fact, Hall of Fame defensive lineman Merlin Olsen is his great uncle.

Kickers and DST

Cairo Santos made both his kicks on Monday night football and two of his three misses this season have been from 50-plus yards, which is not really his forte.

The Bears kept their season long multi-sack streak alive, taking down Sam Darnold three times, with an interception and a blocked kick. Though Mayfield has been sacked only twice in his last two games, he has attempted only 14 passes. He was sacked 13 times in his first three games, with two interceptions and six fumbles on the season, losing three of them.

NFL DFS Week 9 SNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Caleb Williams: Captain, my Captain!
2. D’Andre Swift: Efficiency is not pretty over the last month, but the volume should continue to be there, even if Monangai returns.
3. Bucky Irving: Shares the workload, though he is the priority in the redzone.
4. Luther Burden III: Good chance he extends his touchdown streak to three games tonight at +160.
5. Colston Loveland: It is nice with how consolidated the Chicago offense can be, especially with a tremendous architect like Ben Johnson.
6. Baker Mayfield: It will be cold with temperatures sliding below 50 degrees during the game, but at least it will be dry.
7. Cairo Santos: Steady as they come.
8. Emeka Egbuka: Could be a little rusty.
9. Kenny Gainwell: Enjoy the discount and hope he gets some touchdown love from the fantasy gods. Shares kickoff return role with Tez Johnson.
10. Rome Odunze: Omnipresent third option in the passing game.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Chase McLaughlin: Slight downgrade for the colder weather keeps him out of the top-10, just barely. His last cold weather gig was in 2021 with Cleveland.
13. Chris Godwin: Meh.
14. Kalif Raymond: Wild card for touches, but he has the trust of his coach after their time together in Detroit. Also returns punts.
15. LOTTERY TICKETS
16. Roschon Johnson: Becomes irrelevant outside of MME gamers if Monangai suits up.
17. Chicago DST: Tonight will be a fun test for both sides of this matchup as we head into the second half of the season. Multiple sacks in every game this year.
18. Ted Hurst III: The rookie runs routes, targets are a different story.
19. Tampa Bay DST: 10 sacks, six interceptions, two fumble recoveries and a blocked kick in the last trio of tilts.
20. Tez Johnson, Sam Roush and Sean Tucker: One lucky (or unlucky for their teammate) break away from relevance. Johnson returns punts.
21. Zavion Thomas, Payne Durham, Stephen Carlson, Jahdae Walker, Bauer Sharp, Kameron Johnson, Salvon Ahmed, Ko Kieft and David Sills V: Some will be inactive, the rest will be all but irrelevant. Johnson returns kickoffs with Gainwell, Thomas is the lead kickoff returner for Chicago.

Build it with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Build EMac's showdown card with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Simulate the slate up to 10,000 times to find the highest-upside captain and flex builds, then use code EMAC15 for 15% off Stokastic Sims. Get Stokastic Sims with EMAC15

More on this: Colts vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 SNF Top-10 · Lions Vs Bills Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 TNF Top-10 · Broncos Vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: The Edge Isn't At Captain · Cowboys Vs Giants Showdown DFS: Don't Captain Prescott · Patriots vs Seahawks Showdown DFS: The Opener's Captain Question