Patriots vs Seahawks Showdown DFS: The Opener's Captain Question

Writing this Monday morning, September 7. The Patriots and Seahawks open the season in Seattle on Wednesday, September 9, at 8:20 p.m. ET, and DraftKings has the showdown slate up: one captain at 1.5 times salary and points, five flex spots, $50,000. Every projection and ownership number below is the Stokastic Sims' opener run, published September 4 and 5. The Sims update again once the final practice reports land, so the numbers move before lock; the shape of the slate should not.

Kalshi has Seattle at 62 to 63 cents to win the rematch as of Monday morning, with "Seattle wins by more than 5.5" trading at 41 cents, so the market sees a home favorite of about five points in a game it expects to be decided late. Prices move constantly; those are Monday's. The Super Bowl rematch is a showdown slate, and showdown slates come down to one decision: who do you pay 1.5 times for. The Sims already know what the field thinks. Drake Maye projects to be the most-owned player on the slate at 54.7% and Sam Darnold is right behind him at 50.9%, which means most lineups will carry both quarterbacks. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the highest-projected player on the board at 20.7 points and 44.6% owned. Rhamondre Stevenson is 39.8%. That is the chalk, and it is chalk for good reasons. The interesting part is where the Sims say the field is wrong, and it is all on one side of the ball.

The Quick Answer

Captain Jadarian Price. He is Seattle's lead back at $7,200, projects for 12.2 points at 29.6% ownership, and carries the second-best leverage number on the slate, which is the Sims' way of saying he shows up in winning lineups more often than the field is rostering him. Build around him with Smith-Njigba and Maye, the two players who project highest at their positions, and fund the rest with TreVeyon Henderson, who nobody is rostering. The full board and one legal build are below.

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The Board: Every Player Who Matters, With Sims Ownership

Flex salary shown. Captain costs 1.5 times the number in the salary column and scores 1.5 times the points.

Read the ownership column against the projection column and the slate explains itself. The field is paying up for the four obvious names and both quarterbacks, then filling with the cheapest tight ends and, in a full quarter of lineups, a kicker. Two things stand out. First, both kickers project within a point of the tight ends at similar ownership, which is the showdown quirk that never goes away: a kicker in a game the market expects to be close is not a punt, he is a floor. Second, the two most under-owned players relative to what they project are both running backs on the side of the ball the field is ignoring.

The Captain Question

Maye at 54.7% is the field's answer to everything. He is the highest-owned player on the slate, and I expect a large share of that ownership to sit in the captain slot, because a quarterback at 1.5x is the safest way to spend $15,000. The Sims agree he is the best quarterback play; his leverage is slightly negative, which means he is rostered a little more often than he wins. Smith-Njigba is the same story one notch better: highest projection on the board, leverage a hair under neutral. Neither is a mistake. Neither is where the tournament gets won.

Price is. Seattle's lead back projects for 12.2 flex points, which at captain is 18.2 for $10,800, and his leverage number is positive and large. George Holani, the other half of that backfield at $4,200, has the single best leverage number on the slate at 17.3% owned. The Sims are telling the same story two ways: the field is building this game as Maye throwing to Brown and Darnold throwing to Smith-Njigba, and it is under on the possibility that Seattle, favored at home, runs the ball and drains the clock. That is exactly how a favorite plays a season opener against a champion with a thin roster. Mike Vrabel said the quiet part himself in August, "I do not think we have a very deep team," and our OddsShopper colleagues laid out what that admission means for the line.

The third leverage play is the one I like least and will roster anyway: TreVeyon Henderson at $7,600, 7.8 projected, 2.9% owned. The rookie is the most expensive player on the slate that nobody is rostering, and in a two-team game 2.9% ownership on a starting-caliber back is a number the Sims flag every time. If Stevenson's role is smaller than the field assumes, Henderson is the lineup nobody else has.

One Build: Captain Price, $49,400

The build takes the two chalk pieces the Sims like most, Smith-Njigba and Maye, and pays for its difference in the captain slot and the Henderson spot. It leaves $600 on the table on purpose: the $600 upgrade from Boutte to Doubs adds ownership without adding much projection, and a lineup that is unique at captain does not need to be chalky everywhere else. The one thing this build does not do is bring back Darnold, which is a real cost in a game the market expects to be close. If you want the quarterback correlation, the swap is Maye out, Darnold in, and the $600 saved goes into Doubs over Boutte. That version is more popular and, in the Sims, slightly better on projection and slightly worse on leverage. Pick one; do not split the difference across a portfolio of two.

Before Lock

Three things change these numbers before 8:20 p.m. ET Wednesday. The Sims rerun once the final injury report is in, and a Questionable tag on any of Smith-Njigba, Brown or Stevenson moves ownership more than projection. The captain ownership numbers, which the Sims publish separately from flex ownership, sharpen as lineups get built Tuesday and Wednesday. And the market's line on the game itself is on the Week 1 predictions board, refreshed from Kalshi through kickoff. For the Sunday main slate, the Week 1 DFS picks piece carries the full build and the value board; if this is your first showdown slate, the showdown strategy guide covers the captain math from the top.

Code OPENER takes 20% off your first payment on any Stokastic NFL or All Access package through Monday, September 14, and the opener's showdown Sims are already live.

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