Bears vs Seahawks Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 8 MNF Top-10

Ask The Sims anything about Bears at Seahawks:

Chicago Bears Overview

Running back Kyle Monangai will miss a fourth game and tight end Cole Kmet (knee) was placed on injured reserve last week. Linebacker D’Marco Jackson (ankle) is questionable as is cornerback Malik Muhammad II (toe).

Quarterback

Caleb Wilson has a tough test tonight, on the road in front of the 12s and against a defense that has not allowed any quarterback to clear 190 passing yards in the last nine regular season games. Brock Purdy was the last field general to toss a touchdown pass and that was in Week 5. Five of the seven signal-callers to face “The Dark Side” have been intercepted as well.

In the two tilts since his three-game injury absence, Wilson has tossed a trio of touchdowns, with 305 and 308 passing yards. He has been less productive on the ground, with nine carries for 21 yards, though he is another week removed from his Grade 2 right hamstring strain.

Running Back

Seeing how the Chicago running game works against the Seattle defense will be fun. The Seahawks have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 8 of the 2024 season (33 games) and this year just two running backs have cleared 45 yards ( Rhamondre Stevenson 18/51/0 in the opener and Christian McCaffrey 11/68/1 in Week 5).

Prior to Tampa Bay’s franchise record 324 rushing yards on Sunday, the Bears were leading the league with 154.2 yards per game on a strong 4.4 yards per carry. The ground game has slowed in the three matchups without Monangai, but it has still been effective with D’Andre Swift rushing for three scores and Roschon Johnson one.

It is worth noting that Johnson did fumble against New England and that likely contributed to him logging just 10 offensive snaps, but he will be needed tonight. That in turn resulted in Swift getting a season high 86% snap share, where he had previously been around 60% in the preceding six games.

Both backs are capable pass-catchers and it is worth noting that the aforementioned trio are the only running backs to step between the lines on offense. Zavier Scott has been active as the RB3 with Monangai out, but it would likely take an injury to one of his counterparts for him to see more than a carry or two.

Wide Receivers

Rome Odunze should get some cheers tonight as he was part of the University of Washington team that played in the 2023 National Championship Game against Michigan. Even though he is managing a foot issue, which is just part of his health baseline, he has played on all but nine snaps the last three games and is third on the team with 38 targets.

Odunze leads the team with an 81% route-share and 30% of the air yards, but it has been Luther Burden III emerging in his second season, building on his breakout from down the stretch last year. Though he has a 66% route-share and 24% of the air yards, he has a 21% target-share which is the desirable DFS indicator and his 47 targets are five more than any teammate.

Kalif Raymond started out on a tear with 21 targets through the first three games, thou he has just 10 in the last four. His volume is more matchup dependent as coach Ben Johnson picks his spots. This could be one of those situations tonight, with Seattle excellent against slot receivers which means tougher coverage for Burden and with Kmet out and Odunze already on the field for most of the action, Raymond is the lever that may get pulled.

Jahdae Walker and Zavion Thomas each see a 10%ish snap share game-to-game, with Walker having two targets and Thomas five.

Tight Ends

Coston Loveland is second on the team with 42 targets and he has a season high 12 last week. He typically has a mid-80% snap share, so we could see Sam Roush pushing towards 40% tonight as compared to his mid-20% rate, though it would be mostly as an extra blocker to aid Williams against a fierce pass rush as he has just five targets this season and none in the last here games and Kmet usually only sees two per game with 14 on the season.

Again, this does seem to point towards Raymond as mentioned above.

Kickers and DST

Cairo Santos is a steady presence, and he is excellent inside of 50 yards. Surprisingly he has four from 50-plus in the last two games, making two, including a career-high 58-yarder against New England. Temperatures will be in the upper-40s, with precipitation unlikely.

The Bears have two sacks in every game, totaling 19 on the season with four interceptions and six fumble recoveries. Seattle did not allow any sacks against Kansas City, though they dive suffer 13 in the preceding three games and interceptions have been a major issue.

Seattle Seahawks Overview

Running back Zach Charbonnet is expected to play tonight in his first action since a late season knee injury. Rookie Jadarian Price (chest) may also play, but he needs to be deemed active this afternoon to be available. Velus Jones Jr. is out, though the return of Charbonnet would have likely rendered him inactive. Wide receiver and kick returner extraordinaire Rashid Shaheed is out, wrapping up the skill position players.

Offensive tackle Charles Cross is out, though the team did trade for guard Quenton Nelson earlier this week, which is a boost.

Linebackers Chazz Surratt and Uchenna Nwosu are out, while position-mate Patrick O’Connell (toe) is questionable, though he did not practice this week.

Quarterback

Sam Darnold has eight interceptions in the last five games, which is problematic. He also has been sacked 13 times in this stretch, which is why the team made a move to shore up the offensive line. Of course Chicago added Jeffrey Simmons from Tennessee so that essentially counters the addition of Nelson by the Seahawks.

Four quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns against the Bears, including each of the last three games. Jordan Love put up 367/2/0 in Week 5 and Drake Maye notched 321/2/1 in the last game, with Michael Penix Jr. getting 225/3/0 in between.

Losing Shaheed is a blow, though getting Charbonnet and potential Price back in action will be an upgrade to the offense and ideally take some of the pressure off Darnold.

Running Back

Charbonnet and Price are not going to come in and save the day by any stretch, but they are better than the Emanuel Wilson/George Holani duo who were dodgy enough that the team dusted off Velus Jones Jr. for nine carries in the last two games.

Expect a rotation, though Charbonnet should see the high-leverage opportunities, but he was never an explosive back even before his knee injury. Sprinkling these back in across lineups as the “last man in” is probably the best approach.

Wide Receivers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is looking to defend his Offensive Player of the Year title and he leads the league with 123.9 yards per game and eight receiving touchdowns. He is also among the top-three in most every advanced pass catching metric.

Tory Horton is the Temu version of Shaheed, showing flashes his rookie season before injuries ended his season in late October, which was the impetus for the team to acquired Shaheed from New Orleans. Horton had a 95-yard punt return score last year and this season he has been in the kickoff return rotation. He had mid-40% snap shares each of the last two games, and with Cooper Kupp already seeing the second-most, behind Smith-Njigba, it makes sense to think Horton is likely to push towards a two-thirds snap-share.

No other wideout has stepped between the line on offense this season, though Irvin Charles is the likely WR4, with Ricky White III and Emmanuel Henderson Jr. also possibilities, with the latter two being at the $200 DraftKings minimum.

Tight Ends

AJ Barner has 29 of the 36 targets to this position, with Eric Saubert seeing five and Elijah Arroyo getting two. There is a chance that Arroyo is not active since he is basically a zero as a blocker and the team prefers Nick Kallerup for that role.

Aside from Barner, the rest of the tight ends are discounted differentiation plays that are unlikely to bear fruit.

Kickers and DST

Jason Myers has been stellar this season, with only one missed field goal and one missed extra point. He has converted on all three of his kicks from beyond 50 yards as a bonus, giving him 21 makes on 27 (78%) tries over the last two-plus seasons.

The defense has multiple sacks in all but one game and a hefty eight interceptions with four recovered fumbles. Williams is mobile, but he has an 8.8% sack rate this year, which is more than double his 4.1% from last season.

NFL DFS Week 7 MNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Hard to envision lineups without him.
2. Caleb Williams: The rushing production should tick up going forward.
3. D’Andre Swift: Tough matchup, but he has the trust of his coach and quarterback.
4. Sam Darnold: Hopefully he saw enough ghosts on Halloween.
5. Jason Myers: Field goal volume is fickle, but he has a long track record of getting them.
6. AJ Barner: Decent fantasy point per dollar ratio on both sites.
7. Colston Loveland: Solid floor and has upside potential, the slow start is in the rearview mirror.
8. Zach Charbonnet: It will be interesting to see how he performs after being out for a year.
9. Luther Burden III: High salary and tough matchup out of the slot make him more tricky to back heavily.
10. Cairo Santos: No stranger to kicking outdoors.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Rome Odunze: Could easily rank as high as Myers above with no pushback from me, this is just how my interpretation looks in a single list.
13. Tory Horton: Excellent salary saver and now has a path to more playing time, he should be in the mix for a couple targets and a schemed rushing attempt or two as the Shaheed fill-in.
14. Seattle DST: Great homefield advantage, though going against Ben Johnson is never a walk in the park.
15. AJ Barner: Typically sees a 90% snap share and may get a short yardage rushing opportunity, though that is not a guarantee even if the situation comes up, particularly with Charbonnet returning.
16. Chicago DST: Darnold is likely to be good for a pick or two.
17. LOTTERY TICKETS
18. Kalif Raymond: My read is that he gets more work tonight because of Burden’s tougher matchup out of the slot, but I am not a coach or NFL gameplan architect.
19. Rochon Johnson: The fumble and only 10 snaps last week is a little concerning, but this is an all hands on deck matchup against a defense that will beat up everyone.
20. Cooper Kupp: Even in full-PPR he is unlikely to reach double-digit fantasy production without a touchdown.
21. Sam Roush: Discount dandy who provides differentiation and he could see a target or two now that Kmet is on the shelf.
22. Emmanuel Wilson and Jadarian Price: Salaries are prohibitive now that Charbonnet is in the mix.
23. George Holani: Salary is not the issue, a crowded backfield is for the low man on the totem pole.
24. Charles Irvin: Best guess at the Seattle WR4.
25. Eric Saubert and Nick Kallerup: They will be on the field, though it would be a shock if they combined for more than one target unless something happens to Barner.
26. Zavion Thomas, Jahdae Walker, Stephen Carlson, Zavier Scott and Brady Russell: Collectively have a tick over two projected opportunities.

Build it with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Build EMac's showdown card with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Simulate the slate up to 10,000 times to find the highest-upside captain and flex builds, then use code EMAC15 for 15% off Stokastic Sims. Get Stokastic Sims with EMAC15

More on this: Patriots vs Seahawks Showdown DFS: The Opener's Captain Question · Colts vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 SNF Top-10 · Lions Vs Bills Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 TNF Top-10 · Broncos Vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: The Edge Isn't At Captain · Cowboys Vs Giants Showdown DFS: Don't Captain Prescott