Commanders vs Giants Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 10 TNF Top-10

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Washington Commanders Overview

Terry McLaurin is done for the season, Dyami Brown and Jaylin Lane are also on the IR and Treylon Burks will be missing his second consecutive game, thinning out the wide receiver corps. Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt remains on the IR, joined by RB3 Jeremy McNichols.

Additionally, offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil is on the IL and key reserve Lucas Patrick is also unavailable, as is tight end Colson Yankoff.

The defense is mostly healthy, other than defensive tackles Javon Kinlaw and Daron Payne who each underwent season ending surgery this week.

Quarterback

Week 5 saw Jayden Daniels return from a left elbow injury and run nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns, in the OT tie that resulted from late-game clock mismanagement by the Commanders. In the subsequent trio of tilts he has 10 totes for 49 yards, with 40, 29 and 35 pass attempts for four scores.

Daniels does not have an interception this season, though he has only seven aerial scores in his six starts. His lone game without a passing touchdown was against the Giants last month.

New York has been solid against opposing signal-callers, allowing only 177.8 yards per game which is the third fewest in the league, with an 87.0 QBR ranking 11th overall. We should give a slight discount to this production as other than Daniels, the G-Men have allowed five multi-passing touchdown games, even though only Matthew Stafford (327/4/1) has surpassed 200 yards against them this season, all the way back in Week 2.

Running Back

Jacory Croskey-Merritt put up 82 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries against the Giants, but he is on the IR. Rachaad White is the “lead” back in that he should start the game and most drives, while also getting the first crack in the red zone, but Austin Ekeler continues to see an uptick in playing time and now with McNichols out, this duo should cover 90% or more of the backfield snaps and touches.

In the last three games, White has an 11-5 lead in targets, with both getting three on Sunday. The rushing attempts have closed with Ekeler getting eight in each of the last two games, while White had 11 and five, with McNichols getting five in Week 8 prior to his injury.

There is a pretty good chance that if not for all the injuries, Washington would not have brough Ekeler back and he would be focusing on his post-career projects after seeing 2025 cut short by a ruptured Achilles. However in this iteration of the multiverse, the 31-year-old is in play across the main DFS sites tonight with a sizeable discount to White and no real tertiary competition.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs is no longer an every down player, but he is on the field for most potential passing situations and he has a 71% route participation rate over the last four games, trailing only rookie Antonio Williams 77%. The NFL nomad has snap shares of 66%, 65% and 61% in the three games without McLaurin, tallying nine, six and five targets. For perspective, that nine target game was in Week 4 when Marcus Mariota was injured early and replaced by Athan Kaliakmanis.

This has been a rough two season stretch for Commanders’ fans after the dazzling rookie campaign from Daniels.

Van Jefferson had seven targets on Sunday, though he was on the field for just seven snaps in Week 8 when Treylon Burks was healthy. The former first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft is on track to play after being upgraded to no injury designations despite missing early week practices with his foot issue.

Jefferson is a lottery ticket on DraftKings ($3,200), but he can be skipped on FanDuel where he is actually $200 more than Williams. Burks is a core play on both DraftKings ($3,600) and FanDuel ($4,000), even with the elevated risk of in-game reaggravation.

Tight Ends

Chig Okonkwo has been dinged up at various point this season, but he is still the TE1 and on the field for 70% of the offensive action. He has 31 of the 44 (70%) of the targets to the position, with six going to TE2 John Bates, five to the injured Yankoff and only two earmarked for fullback/H-back Ben Sinnott.

Kickers and DST

UDFA rookie Drew Stevens has been solid, missing only one of his last 14 field goal attempts and it was from 50-plus yards. He was a four-year starter for Iowa and holds several school records, while also being in the top-10 on several Big-10 leaderboards.

Washington has had multiple sacks in four of the last five games with three interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. The Giants have suffered nine sacks in the last two games and their quarterbacks are not afraid to force passes, which can lead to interceptions.

New York Giants Overview

Linebackers Malik Harrison (groin) is questionable, though fellow backer Abdul Carter (knee/back) does not have an injury designation after practicing in full on Wednesday, which includes Cam Skattebo (hamstring). Backup defensive back Colton Hood dislocated his finger in practice and will miss tonight’s action.

Quarterback

J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston have each seen snaps across the last four games and while McCarthy has started the last two games, it would not be a surprise to see Winston with some situational stuff to spice things up, especially since McCarthy left Sunday’s game with a hip pointer, though he does not have an injury designation tonight.

McCarthy did have four carries for 22 yards last week, though it will be interesting to see how mobile he is with the hip pointer. Best guess is that he will have some “medicinal assistance” and be game to run at least for the first half.

The Commanders have allowed four quarterbacks to toss at least three touchdown passes this season, though they have tightened up and allowed only two aerial scores over the last three games.

Running Back

Cam Skattebo suffered a hamstring injury in Week 7, which did not heal enough over the bye and he missed Week 9 as well. Week 6 he was in the doghouse and while he did not get an offensive opportunity, he did play six snaps.

Devin Singletary was dreadful on Sunday, turning 21 carries into 31 yards and three targets into two receptions for eight yards. UDFA rookie Gregory Desrosiers saw his first action after being signed off the Los Angeles Chargers practice squad at the end of October. He had 20 yards on three carries among his five snaps.

Fullback Patrick Ricard came over from Baltimore with head coach John Harbaugh and while he has been on the field between 30% and 40% in most games. He does have three targets this season, but only one carry in his last 56 games (Week 9 of last year for those wondering).

Wide Receivers

Malik Nabers is a priority play and he has seen just over half of the wideout targets (78 of 148) this season. Rookie Malachi Fields is second on the team with 35 targets, with 8, 5 and 5 over the last three games, while veteran Darnell Mooney has 26 on the season, with 2, 3 and 3 in the same timeframe.

Jaylin Hyatt is the only other wideout to step between the lines on offense in the last two games, with 13 total snaps.

Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely tends to push towards an 80% snap share most games, with Chris Manhertz around half that as the blocking tight end. Likely has 69 targets, while Manhertz saw his first target of the season last week.

Theo Johnson missed Weeks 6 to 8 with a neck injury, logging a dozen snaps on Sunday. He is more of the backup to Likely and his nine targets came in the first five games prior to his injury.

Kickers and DST

Rookie UDFA Dominic Zvada rebounded from missing both of his field goal attempts in Week 7, to converting all four on Sunday. Three of his four misses have been from beyond 50 yards. He was projected as a potential late-round NFL Draft candidate after his junior year at Michigan, though he elected to return for the sweet, sweet security of the NIL money. His production slipped, but he still did win the Giants’ job in training camp.

Seven of the Giants 16 sacks this season occurred against Philadelphia on Sunday, though it is important to note that they did get Daniels five times in the last matchup and the Commanders field general has been sacked 15 times in his last four starts.

NFL DFS Week 10 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Jayden Daniels: Captain, my Captain!
2. Malik Nabers: Best chance the Giants have to put points on the board.
3. Stefon Diggs: Better on DraftKings with full-PPR scoring.
4. Cam Skattebo: Can an “infectious disease” be used positively?
5. J.J. McCarthy: Best used as a flex option, his new team is only a half game behind his old team. Harbaugh understands the path to the postseason is winning the NFC East, so if McCarthy struggles, we will likely see Winston as getting the tiebreaker over Washington could be crucial.
6. Isaiah Likely: Huge part of the offense.
7. Rachaad White: Should get the first crack at the volume and redzone carries.
8. Dominic Zvada: Light wind and likely rain, temps in the low-50s making for potential tricky conditions.
9. Antonio Williams: He has flashed upside, but nothing sustained.
10. New York DST: Homefield advantage against a quarterback who tries to extend plays, which results in elevated sack opportunities.
11. Drew Stevens: Visiting rookie kicker, no stranger to life outdoors as the Iowa kicker the last four seasons.
12. SECONDARY TARGETS
13. Treylon Burks: If he had not missed last week, he would be slotted above Stevens. Let your personal preference and in-game injury aggravation tolerance be your ultimate guide.
14. Chig Okonkwo: Ample on-field presence, but only one redzone target.
15. Austin Ekeler: Significant savings of $3,000 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel when compared to White.
16. Washington DST: The unit has been solid, ideally the Washington offense can put some point on the board to push the Giants towards passing more.
17. Malachi Fields: Gets the nod over his veteran counterpart.
18. LOTTERY TICKETS
19. Devin Singletary: No explosiveness and hefty salary make it hard to hope that something befalls Skattebo and Singletary is able to convert against a stout defense.
20. Darnell Mooney: Wild card who is replacement level, but he is not far behind Fields who lacks experience.
21. Van Jefferson: In play at $3,000 on DraftKings, tougher click at $7,600 on FanDuel. Pay attention to actives as he might not make the cut with Burks back.
22. Jameis Winston: Stranger things have happened, enough gamers are going to roster him, so this is more foolish than sneaky. Needs to have a hand in two touchdowns or take over entirely before the start of the second quarter.
23. Luke McCaffrey: Lead kickoff returner and likely punt returner with Lane and Brown out. Could serve as the WR4/5 over Jefferson.
24. Theo Johnson, John Bates, Chris Manhertz and Patrick Ricard: Will at least be on the field, project for around two combined targets.
25. Charlie Jones: Lead kickoff and punt returner for New York, 20 of his 21 offensive snaps were in Week 6.
26. Greg Derosiers, Ben Sinnott, Jalin Hyatt, Robert Henry Jr. and Marcus Mariotta: Need multiple things to break their way to even have a snowball’s chance in Florida of having a DFS impact tonight.

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