Cowboys vs Packers Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 6 SNF Top-10

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Dallas Cowboys Overview

Defensive back Cobie Durant (hamstring) and offensive tackle Drew Shelton remain out, with defensive tackle LT Overton (foot) questionable, though having not practiced and he last saw action in the opener.

Joey Porter Jr. is questionable as well, having only suited up for the Cowboys in Week 4 after missing Week 5 with an illness. He tweaked an ankle in practice, though indications are that he hopes to play Sunday night. Cornerback Ameer Speed (knee) and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) are also questionable.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott will have his work cut out for him as Green Bay is allowing just 181.0 passing yards per game and a 76.8 passer rating, both of which are the fifth best figures in the league. Since allowing a trio of tuddies to Carson Wentz in Week 1 as the journeyman stepped in for injured Kyler Murray, the Packers have allowed just three more aerial scores. They also have an impressive seven interceptions with no quarterback topping 256 yards through the air.

Prescott does a nice job of keeping the chains moving and he has led the league in completions in each of his last two healthy seasons. This enables him to be under consideration for the multiplier slot, even though he does not add much on the ground.

Fortunately, the 11-year NFL veteran does a good job of moving in the pocket, while scanning downfield for his dynamic duo of deep threats. The 33-year-old has 14 or more rushing yards in three of the five games thus far, which helps offset interceptions.

Running Back

Javonte Williams has 24 redzone opportunities this season and he has at least one touchdown in every game, save for Week 2 against Washington. Efficiency is not part of his repertoire and he has a career low 3.7 yards per carry. Aside from the strong seven touchdowns, he is up to a mediocre 5.5 yards per reception after last year’s abysmal 3.9.

Emari Demercado was cut before Thursday Night Football, then resigned Tuesday as Dallas was working the fringes of the roster to add offensive lineman Tyler Smith to the 53-man roster, later cutting offensive lineman Nick Leverett to readd Demercado. He has not played since Week 2, with Tyler Goodson serving as the RB2 behind Williams the last three games. The combined RB2 workload is a tick shy of four opportunities per tilt.

Hunter Luepke is more of an “H-back” and used as a blocker in both passing and rushing situations. He has three carries and one target this season, while playing around 15% of the snaps.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb injured his quad in Week 4 and then took another hit during Thursday Night Football, limiting him to just 57% of the offensive action, with return-man extraordinaire KaVontae Turpin getting a season high 24 snaps, after averaging eight per game in the first four weeks. Ideally the long week has Lamb ready to go and he is not on the injury report, having practiced in full all week.

George Pickens had a season high 13 targets in the surprising loss to Tampa Bay, hauling in nine for 130 yards and his first touchdown of the season. Ryan Flournoy has consolidated the WR3 role and he has at least four targets in every game, with his 27 ranking third on the team.

Jonathan Mingo is mostly an afterthought, seeing the field a dozen or so times per game, though he does have six of his seven targets in the last two games.

It is clear that Lamb and Pickens are the alphas, though we do get a $2,000 discount for Pickens on DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel, which does help offset the significant chemistry gap held by Prescott and Lamb.

Tight Ends

Kickers and DST

Brandon Aubrey had a long and winding road to the NFL, showing up as a 28-year-old, though earning Pro Bowl accolades in each of his three seasons, as well as being named to the NFL All-Pro squad each year. In a bit of a twist, he is just 2-of-5 (40%) from beyond 50 yards.

Of course, digging deeper, he had 59 and 62-yard attempts blocked, with his other miss from 65 yards. No other kicker has this much long-distance trust from their coaches than the former Notre Dame Golden Domer.

Sadley the Cowboys defense has only two fumble recoveries and this beleaguered unit has zero, zippy, nada, zilch on the interception front through five games and their five sacks are the third-fewest in the league.

Green Bay Packers Overview

Jayden Reed (neck), plus defensive tackles Jonathan Ford (calf) and Javon Hargrave (Achilles) are out, as are receiver Skyy Moore (ankle) and cover man Benjamin St-Juste (hamstring).

Offensive linemen Aaron Banks (knee/toe) and Jacob Monk (quad), along with defensive tackle Anthony Campbell (ankle) are questionable. Defensive tackle Jordon Riley (Achillies IR-designated to return) is doubtful, while receiver Savion Williams (ankle IR-designated to return) is questionable.

Quarterback

Jordan Love has upside potential against the Cowboys, who despite allowing a middling 227 passing yards per game, have an 8.3 yards per completion rate that trails only Chicago and Arizona. Additionally, Dallas has ceded a 120.5 passer rating which is the highest in the league.

Love has tossed two touchdowns in each game this season, giving up only three interceptions. He has also improved his completion rate to 65.8% after having a tough first two weeks against the blitz happy Minnesota Vikings and in a dismal weather game on the road against the New York Jets.

Similar to Prescott, Love is good at moving in the pocket and extending plays, though in his last 36 regular season starts he is averaging 7.8 rushing yards per game with one touchdown.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs is still on the commissioner’s exempt list (CIL), though it is expected that he will be available in Week 7. MarShawn Lloyd did convert two of his 10 rushes for touchdowns on Sunday, though for the season he has been dreadful with 40 carries for 112 yards, hauling in 10 of 13 targets for 55 yards and another score.

Chris Brooks suffered an ankle injury in Week 3 that sent him to the IR and it was Pierre Strong Jr. who picked up the slack with 25 snaps, just two fewer than Lloyd, seeing four targets and five carries for a combined 18 yards.

Kaleb Johnson has slid back into obscurity, though he did get carries on seven of his nine snaps for 26 yards.

We care about all of this because Dallas has allowed a league-high 168.4 rushing yards per game, with 5.1 yards per carry which ranks fourth-worst, ceding a subpar six touchdowns. This means Lloyd is in play, with Strong a viable pivot for a 50% salary cap savings. This duo can also be played together to lock up the majority of the backfield upside.

It is unlikely any of the Packers come close to the 21/165/1 performance of Bucky Irving on Thursday Night Football, leading Tampa to a surprise road win, but Cam Skattebo 18/81/1 and Derrick Henry 26/89/2 were solid, with two other running backs also topping 40 rushing yards against the Cowboys thus far.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs each had a pair of touchdowns against Dallas, combing for the quartet produced by opposing wideouts versus Dallas. Christian Watson has had two touchdown performances himself on two occasions this season, with six receptions and 140-plus yards in each of those appearances. All told he has six scores this season and he has been thrilling his fantasy supporters.

Second-year man Matthew Golden has stepped up as well with a touchdown and/or at least 95 yards in four of the five games. They have really consolidated all of the production with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks with other teams and injures to Jayden Reed, Williams and Moore.

Bo Melton had a season high 30 snaps, with most coming after Moore was injured, resulting in four of his eight targets for the year. J. Michael Sturdivant logged eight snaps with no targets, though he did have three in Week 3 and one in Week 4, keeping him in the mix for those crafting north of 50 lineups with his $1,000 cap hit on DraftKings and $1.400 salary on FanDuel.

Tight Ends

Tucker Kraft frequently has games where he is on the field for nearly 90% of the offensive action, though that is not a realistic baseline with something in the 75% range more likely. He is third on the team with 29 targets, while Jonnu Smith (seven) and Mark Redman (two) are combining for around two looks per game, with each holding a one-third snap-share. Josh Whyle should be on the field a few times, though he has yet to have any offensive chances.

Kickers and DST

James Woodrow “Trey” Smack was a sixth-rounder from Florida who started out as a kickoff specialist, usurping the incumbent kicker as a freshman, while also seeing time as the Gators’ punter and being on the fringes of the Lou Groza Award a couple times. He also holds the school record for most makes from 50-plus yards.

Smack’s rookie campaign has seen him with two of his three misses last week against Chicago, from43 and 47 yards. Fortunately the Packers safely took down the victory 31-7, so there is less scrutiny on him, but his chair is a little warm at the moment.

Prescott has been sacked only six times this season, with none on Thursday Night Football in the loss to Tampa. Also, despite all the handwringing in 2022 when he lead the league with 15 picks, that was an outlier and double his completely acceptable 1.9% career rate.

The Pack Attack is in the upper-third of the league with nearly three quarterback takedowns per game and in the top-three with nine takeaways.

NFL DFS Week 6 SNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Jordan Love: This is an interesting player pool, with both quarterbacks having a path to the top slot if they spread around the touchdowns.
2. Dak Prescott: Would be the top dog if the game was in Dallas.
3. Javonte Williams: Volume is nuts, though efficiency is not part of the equation.
4. Christian Watson: The upside rivals Lamb and he has scored in all but one game.
5. George Pickens: The discount compared to Lamb is significant.
6. CeeDee Lamb: Absolutely in contention for the multiplier-slot across the DFS world.
7. Matthew Golden: Has leveled up since his uninspiring rookie campaign. Likely returns punts with Moore injured.
8. Trey Smack: Homefield, salary and rostership combined for a slight edge over Aubrey.
9. Brandon Aubrey: Perfect spot to quell the murmurs that he is losing his touch.
10. MarShawn Lloyd and Pierre Strong Jr.: The salary for Strong is incredibly appealing and Lloyd is at risk of a serious time-share or even a changing of the guard if he stumbles.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Ryan Flournoy: Cheaper than Ferguson and a dual path to increase opportunities if anything befalls the dynamic duo.
13. Tyler Goodson: DraftKings only and we also need Demercado to be inactive.
14. LOTTERY TICKETS
15. Green Bay DST: Cheeseheads should be out in full force tonight!
16. KaVontae Turpin: Has the kick return role on lockdown, but offensive opportunities are sporadic with everyone healthy. Likely gets one or two schemed touches.
17. Kaleb Johnson: Placeholder backup until next week, should still see a handful of low leverage rushing attempts. Could see some kickoff return work with Moore out.
18. Bo Melton: Moves into lead kick return role and had four of his eight targets on the season last week after Moore got hurt.
19. Dallas DST: No interceptions and just five sacks this season, a fortuitous return touchdown will be needed for this unit to have DFS relevance.
20. Brevyn Spann-Ford, Jonathan Mingo, Luke Schoonmaker and Hunter Luepke: Project for eight combined offensive opportunities, good luck figuring out how they are distributed.
21. Jonnu Smith, J. Michael Sturdivante Mark Redman, Josh Whyle, Savion Williams and Coleman Owen: Green Bay’s version of the above, though with half the expected workload.

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