Jaguars vs Ravens Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 9 TNF Top-10

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Jacksonville Jaguars Overview

Running back Bhayshul Tuten (ankle/foot) has not practiced, while defensive end Travon Walker (ribs) is questionable. Defensive tackle DaVon Hamelton (IR-knee) and safety Eric Murray (IR-elbow) were placed on the injured reserve yesterday.

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence currently leads the league with his 8.6% touchdown rate, 9.3 air yards per attempt and 112.6 passer rating. Lawrence has fine pass catchers across the board and while he has not added much with his legs this season (20/80/0), he had nine rushing touchdowns last year and 23 in 84 regular season starts.

It is unlikely that Lawrence has a lot of passing volume, with sportsbooks agreeing on 29.5 attempts, but effective efficiency can certainly have him providing a profit for tonight’s salary.

There could be some precipitation tonight, with game-time temperatures in the mid-60s, though there is very little wind in the forecast. Jacksonville has a 24.5 point team total, which is below the 28 they are averaging this season. Both teams are willing to run the ball and play conservatively, which should lower the overall play totals for each side.

Running Back

Bhayshul Tuten has not practiced and is a game-time decision with his foot and ankle issues and there is no need for the Jaguars to push him as they are 10-point road favorites. If he plays, expect him to be mostly effective, though a lighter load in the second half is on the table if the game goes according to projections.

Chris Rodriguez is a strong click if Tuten is out and while he has only three targets this season, he has scored a trio of tuddies on the ground, all coming in the last five games.

LeQuint Allen Jr. and Ameer Abdullah are the backups, with Allen more of the passing-down option, though Abdullah is also capable in that facet of the game. This duo would get a solid boost if Tuten is out, though predicting which sees more opportunities is tricky.

Wide Receivers

Parker Washington leads the team with 48 targets, 27 receptions, 432 yards and four scores. Jakobi Meyers is second in most categories, though surprisingly Josh Cameron is putting up similar production with 13 targets for 8/117/2 as Brian Thomas Jr. who has 21 for 10/117/2.

Travis Hunter is basically a full-time cornerback, averaging half a dozen offensive plays per game, with just seven targets this season.

Tight Ends

Brenton Strange has stayed healthy and emerged as a trusted target for Lawrence, putting further pressure on the opportunities that were previously earmarked for Thomas. He is second on the team with 35 targets, producing 28/334/1 with his opportunities and he typically pushes towards a 70% snap share, which is well above every wideout.

Nate Boerkircher should be on the field for around 40% of the offensive action and he pops up now and again for a target or two here and there with nine in total, with Quintin Morris (two) and Tanner Koziol (one) are afterthoughts with their dozen-ish snaps per game.

Kickers and DST

Cam Little has a booming leg and he has converted 4-of-6 (67%) from beyond 50 yards this season, with a high of 60 yards. Overall his 12 field goal attempts is a little light, but we know how fickle opportunities can be on a game-to-game basis.

The Ravens have a reasonable eight turnovers on the season, though a rookie quarterback is likely to help that total grow as Jacksonville ranks first with 1.7 takeaways per game and the Jaguars are averaging two quarterback takedowns per tilt.

Baltimore Ravens Overview

Lamar Jackson (thumb) is on the IR and Tyler “Snoop” Huntley (toe) is likely done for the season. Kicker Tyler Loop (IR-groin), safety Jaylinn Hawkins (knee) and linebacker Tavius Robinson (IR-pec) are out as well. Cornerback Nate Wiggins (stinger/illness) is questionable, while the rest of the team looks good to go.

Quarterback

Joe Fagnano was pressed into duty on Sunday after Jackson injured his thumb on the first play and Huntley later hurt his toe. He was a UDFA this year, after spending time with Maine and the University of Connecticut, totaling seven seasons between the schools.

He is slow and did not do much with his legs in college, though he did have a 28-1 touchdown to interception ratio in his final season with the Huskies. Expectations are that coach Jesse Minter and offensive coordinator will look to keep things conservative and limit the passing volume.

Fagnano was 10-for-21 (47%) for 91 yards with one interception, one fumble and three sacks in Buffalo after taking over for his injured position-mates. Books have him for around 161 passing yards, seven rushing yards and he is -125 to toss a touchdown.

It is also worth calling out that while he is not on the injury report, Fagnano did tweak his ankle on Sunday. Baltimore is in the process of trading for Jacoby Brissett, who lost his Arizona gig to Gardner Minshew II, though it does not appear that the transaction will be finalized in time for Brissett to be available tonight. That leaves Austin Reed or Kedon Slovis as the likely backup, with the other serving as the emergency third quarterback.

Running Back

Derrick Henry has not topped 60 rushing yards in the last three games, totaling just 156 on 45 attempts (3.5 ypc) with one touchdown. He has 14 targets on the season, for 12 receptions, 75 yards and a touchdown, though it is hard to be excited knowing that the entire defense will be keying on him tonight. To his credit he still looks solid, but as he heads towards his 33rd birthday in January, he is no longer capable of carrying an offense by himself.

Rasheen Ali has a grand total of seven offensive plays this season, with all coming in the last two games. He has carries on six of these plays, notching 24 yards. Expect to see him pop up in some low-leverage spots, though there is a path to relevance in mop-up duty if Baltimore packs it in early.

Justice Hill is typically on the field for 40%-to-50% of the action, and he is fourth on the team with 25 targets, including a season high eight on Sunday. He is a core play on DraftKings ($3,200) with the full-PPR scoring, though his appeal is dampened on FanDuel ($4,800) with the half-PPR format.

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers had five targets on Sunday, though he did not convert any. Similar to Henry, he is going to have the full attention of the secondary, though it would make sense for him to have some hot routes and schemed opportunities to get the ball in his hands tonight.

Oddsmakers also have Fagnano for 16.5 completions on 28.5 attempts, making it tough for anyone to see volume after Flowers and probably Hill. Rookie Ja’Kobi Lane and longtime Raven Rashod Bateman are each probably good for 2-3 looks as they project for the most playing time, with Devontez Walker well down the list as we could see more two-tight end sets.

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews signed a 3-year, $39.3 million extension last December, which was a bit of salary cap navigation, bringing in $24 million in new money for the tight end. That now looks aggressive as he suddenly appears to have aged beyond his 31 years overnight. Still he should be in play tonight for 3-to-5 looks from his inexperienced quarterback, so that is something.

Fourth-round rookie Josh Cuevas has flashed some upside and looks like he will be the heir to Andrews going forward, with fellow fourth-round newcomer Matthew Hibner earning praise as a blocker and is more of an in-line option, with Cuevas as the H-back or motion tight end.

Kickers and DST

The Ravens have managed only one sack in each of the last two games, with 17 on the season. Baltimore does not have any fumble recoveries, with four interceptions as the only takeaways.

Jacksonville is allowing a tick shy of two sacks per tilt, with only five turnovers.

NFL DFS Week 9 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Trevor Lawrence Captain, my Captain!
2. Parker Washington: Lead pass catcher and punt returner for Jacksonville.
3. Derrick Henry: Sadly it is not De-Hember.
4. Zay Flowers: Ideally there is a plan to get the ball in his hands.
5. Bhayshul Tuten: If he plays, our hope is he finds pay dirt early as second half opportunities could go to the backups. If he were at full-health, he would be behind only Lawrence.
6. Joe Fagnano: Yikes!
7. Jakobi Meyers: Clear WR2 for the Jags AIAEC.
8. Cam Little: Range from pretty much anywhere on the field.
9. Jacksonville DST: Half a dozen sacks+takeaways is very much in play, even with Baltimore likely to turtle up on offense.
10. SECONDARY TARGETS
11. Chris Rodriguez Jr.: Moves to Tuten’s slot if he is inactive.
12. Justice Hill: Solid salary saver on DraftKings, in play on FanDuel as well.
13. Mark Andrews: Just does not have the pep in his step anymore.
14. LOTTERY TICKETS
15. Baltimore DST: Even the Seven Nation Army chant can’t save them tonight. Still live for a pick-six, scoop-and-score or return touchdown, because football is funny that way.
16. Rashod Bateman and Ja’Kobi Lane: Would be in the secondary section if Brissett was under center.
17. Josh Cuevas and Matt Hibner: The next generation of tight ends is already here for Baltimore. Differentiation plays, though still viable.
18. Brian Thomas Jr. and Josh Cameron: After the strong rookie campaign for Thomas, it is wild to have envisioned where we are tonight. Cameron is co-kickoff returner with Adullah.
19. Nate Boerkircher and LeQuint Allen Jr.: Not fun clicks but we can’t all build the same lineups and hope for leaderboard glory tonight.
20. Travis Hunter and Ameer Abdullah: Deep reaches for Jacksonville, Abdullah returns kickoffs with Cameron.
21. Devontez Walker and Rasheen Ali: Baltimore version of the above, Ali shares kickoff return duties with Wester.
22. LaJohntay Wester, Nick Vannett, Quintin Morris, Tanner Koziol and Elijah Sarratt: Wester returns punts and kickoffs.

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