49ers Vs Rams Showdown DFS: EMac's TNF Week 1 Top-10 And The Rest

Eric MacPherson's showdown card for the NFL's first regular-season game in Australia, the 49ers and Rams on Thursday night at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Take his Top-10 into the Stokastic NFL Sims and build by win probability, or start with the 49ers vs Rams showdown DFS breakdown for the Sims' captain call and ownership.

San Francisco 49ers Overview

This will be the first regular season game in Australia and the teams have taken different approaches for their arrival preparations. The 49ers have been Down Under for a week, while the Rams arrived about 30 hours before kickoff.

The biggest changes this offseason for San Francisco came at wide receiver with Ricky Pearsall lost for the season, Mike Evans brought in during free agency and Deebo Samuel returning after a one-year sojourn in Washington. Brandon Aiyuk completed his self-sabotage and is for all intents and purposes likely done as a relevant player. Christian Kirk also joined the fray, though he was placed on the IR with a calf issue.

Demarcus Robinson remains as a veteran presence, who will mostly be tasked with wind sprints or run blocking duties. De’Zhaun Stribling was selected with the 33rd overall pick after four college seasons at three different institutions. He ended up getting extra reps as Evans dealt with various soft tissue maladies during training camp. Expect to see him working from the slot and potentially getting looks in 12-personnel.

George Kittle is not carrying an injury designation, which is wild considering he tore his right Achilles during the Wild Card game against Philadelphia in early-January. It is important to remember that he is one of the best blockers at his position and that may be his focus tonight against a ferocious Los Angeles defense that is now led by Myles Garrett. He is not going to be rushed into more than he can handle with the grind just beginning, so he is tricky to trust. Last year when Kittle was out, Jake Tonges proved to be a capable receiver, though he is merely mediocre at blocking on his best days, let alone against this elite defense.

Christian McCaffrey led the league in touches for the third time in his career and the following season he played in just three games as a 24-year-old and four games as a 28-year-old. While it is trite to say, it is true that this will be the healthiest he is all season. Kaelon Black and Jordan James should each get chances between the 20s, though CMC is still worthy of being called a bell cow back.

Brock Purdy had an injury marred season, though he was far from irrelevant as the team was 8-3 with him at the helm, including the playoffs. He also was wildly efficient with a 7% touchdown rate for the third time in four seasons. It is interesting that gamers do not think of Purdy as a rushing threat, but he has 8 rushing TDs in his last 18 games, averaging 19.1 yards on the ground during this timeframe. Mac Jones played well in his place, which is a true testament to the overall offensive scheme.

Los Angeles Rams Overview

The Rams elected to continue to train in California, arriving in Australia with little cushion to spare. Aaron Donald stayed back to ramp up for his return to the field, though everyone els should be good to go.

Matthew Stafford won the MVP last year, though surprisingly there have been six other award winners who were 37 or older, with Tom Brady holding the crown as the only 40-year-old. Stafford led the league in most relevant categories, though it would be a shock to see him do that again. Davante Adams is another year older and now four years removed from his last Pro Bowl campaign. He still has sure hands, but the separation and yards after the catch have slipped dramatically, masked for fantasy purposes by a league leading 14 receiving scores.

Puka Nacua was battling Jaxon Smith-Njigba in most receiving categories, finishing third in the Offensive MVP voting behind JSN and McCaffrey. He is the all-time leader with 95.3 receiving yards per game and if he stays healthy, he could put up a campaign that rivals the ridiculous 2021 season of Cooper Kupp.

Next up are a passel of tight ends and deep afterthoughts like Konata Mumpfield and Jordan Whittington. Nacua had more yards than the rest of the wideouts combined and while anyone stepping between the lines is a viable single-slate click, this is seemingly a fool’s errand.

Colby Parkinson is the most complete of the tight ends, which should garner him the most playing time. Second-year man Terrance Ferguson turned 25 targets into 11 receptions, 231 yards and a trio of tuddies, which is enticing as coach Sean McVay has had a whole offseason to figure out how to employ him as a game-changer. Expect less 13-personnel with Adams healthy, though Davis Allen and Tyler Higbee will be active and see the field.

Blake Corum started working into the mix around mid-season and while Kyren Williams is still the trusted option and likely will keep getting the first opportunities in high-leverage situation, the salary savings for Corum should have savvy gamers salivating at his fantasy point per dollar upside.

They should have similar tournament representation on DraftKings, though on FanDuel it looks like Williams has a mid-30% rostership as compared to the 20ish% for his understudy. Both can be played in the same lineup, though the true ceiling is likely to be reached by only one.

NFL DFS Week 1 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Christian McCaffrey: Can’t you hear the thunder?
2. Puka Nacua: You better run, you better take cover.
3. Brock Purdy: No longer Mr. Irrelevant.
4. Matthew Stafford: Knows his limitations and maximizes his pocket presence.
5. Blake Corum: Excellent point per dollar option on DK, still worthy of our attention on FD with the rostership discount compared to Williams.
6. Kyren Williams: Trusted option, even with less game-breaking upside than Corum.
7. Eddy Pineiro: Only miss last year was from 50+ yards and he made six others from this range.
8. Harrison Mevis: The “Thiccer Kicker” took over in the middle of the season and became a fan favorite.
9. De’Zhaun Stribling: Salary is a thing, he had a great preseason and has the eye of his quarterback.
10. Deebo Samuel: Likely will get some snaps out of the backfield.

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NFL DFS Week 1 TNF Showdown: And The Rest

Secondary Targets

1. Davante Adams: Needs a TD to pay off.
2. Mike Evans: Best at winning contested catches, separation and racing downfield after the point of target are not strong suits anymore.
3. George Kittle: Likely to be eased back, props are 3.5 receptions and 38.5 yards, with +280 for a touchdown.

Lottery Tickets

1. Terrance Ferguson: It should not be too difficult to envision a couple of catches for 35+ yards and double-digit fantasy points is in play with a little luck.
2. Colby Parkinson: The wet blanket for Ferguson dreamers and the more responsible player on the field for his blocking.
3. Los Angeles DST: First game, major travel and Garrett is managing knee soreness, though expected to be a full go.
4. Jake Tonges: If Kittle was out, he would be five spots higher on this list as the salary is unfavorable for a tertiary role, though the single-digit popularity is enticing.
5. San Francisco DST: Fewest sacks in the league by six last year, with just one takeaway per tilt. Stafford is a cool customer that does not give away easy fantasy points to opposing defenses.
6. Kaelon Black, Jordan James, DeMarcus Robinson And Kyle Juszczyk: They will all play, though their collective full-PPR projection barely breaks double-digits.
7. Jordan Whittington, Konata Mumpfield, Davis Allen And Tyler Higbee: The Rams version of the above line.
8. Luke Farrell, Davis Allen, Ronnie Rivers, Zavier Smith, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing And Tutu Atwell: Never say never, but it ain’t likely.

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