Panthers vs Packers Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 8 TNF Top-10

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Carolina Panthers Overview

It has been a minute since we saw Carolina in prime time, with their other appearance coming on Sunday Night Football in Week 4 against Detroit, when they pulled off a 32-26 victory. As a reminder wideouts Xavier Leggette and rookie Chris Brazzell are on the IR, as is running back Jonathan Brooks, though the hope is he returns before the holidays.

Starting guard Torricelli Simpkins III and backup Damien Lewis have been ruled out, while offensive tackle Taylor Moton was placed on the IR earlier this week.

The defense is missing linebacker Jaelan Phillips, with rotational linemen Cam Jackson out and Bobby Brown III (hand) questionable, though trending towards playing. Cornerback Akayleb Evans is out, while Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn are on the IR.

Quarterback

Bryce Young had been piling up the passing yards and touchdowns, averaging 309.8 yards per game with 11 touchdowns against two interceptions through the first five games of the season. Sunday was a different story as Tampa Bay came in and shut down the whole operations, limiting Young to 163 yards, one touchdown and a pair of picks as he was pulled for Kenny Pickett to avoid a late game injury in the 43-13 laugher. The Buccaneers had 258 rushing yards and three touchdowns, with five sacks as well as a pick-six and a scoop-and-score.

It was just one of those games, so hopefully the Panthers hit the reset button and move on to regain the offensive mojo that had been lacking for the last few seasons. Green Bay is far from a pushover and they have a whopping nine interceptions in seven games, while allowing nine touchdowns and just 208 passing yards per tilt.

Young’s average dropped to 285.3 passing yards per game, which fell behind Jared Goff (298.0), though it is still nearly 100 yards per game better than his best season. Tonight will be the next measuring point to see if this was fluky or a new positive baseline.

Running Back

Chuba Hubbard stepped up in the first three games without Brooks, consolidating the backfield touches and being on the field for nearly 88% of the snaps. AJ Dillon was the RB2 in Weeks 3 and 4, but he is currently dealing with an ankle injury and was replaced by Trevor Etienne in Week 6, with Anthony Tyus III getting a mop-up duty touchdown on Sunday when he played five of his nine snaps and saw his only three touches of the season.

Hubbard should be in the mix for 2-4 targets, while also pushing towards 20 total offensive opportunities if things are going well. Expect Etienne for a handful of low leverage touches when Hubbard is on the sidelines and it would be a surprise to see Tyus for more than a couple offensive snaps, if any at all.

Wide Receivers

Jalen Coker has had some solid games, when healthy and he has proven to be a capable WR2 with upside. Tetorairoa McMillan is of course the stalwart, who has four games with at least 75 yards, despite the full attention of opposing defenses.

His best game was on Sunday Night against Detroit, when he put up most of his 14/192/2 in the first half as the Lions decided to just keep using the same coverage, despite getting burned time and again for nine receptions, 142 yards and a 32-yard touchdown.

In the last two games, four different wideouts have put up at least 70 yards against Green Bay, with just two other such performances on the year. That has this duo in play, though it is tougher to see much volume heading towards John Metchie III and Brycen Tremayne. Each is likely to be on the field for around 30% of the offensive action, with the Panthers rolling out 12-personel 40%-to-50% of the time.

Metchie has seen just shy of four targets in each of the last four tilts, though Tremayne has fallen off with only one look in the last two games. Do not read anything into David Moore getting four targets in the blowout as he had just four through his first four games this year.

Tight Ends

Darren Waller has 23 targets, while Tommy Tremble has 21, with Mitchell Evans well behind at 10 and both his redzone looks were on Sunday. Waller has four redzone chances, with Tremble getting three. Tremble also has more playing time as the better blocker, but Waller gets in the mix for likely passing situations as well as some regular sets.

Kickers and DST

Brandon Aubrey surprisingly did not have a field goal attempt in primetime last week and the same result

Green Bay Packers Overview

Ryan Fitzgerald did not have any field goal attempts during Sunday’s drubbing and like the rest of the team, he had a rough go missing one of his two point after touchdown attempts. That has been an issue for the second-year UDFA out of Florida State as he is 12-of-17 (70.6%), after converting on 90% last year. Of course he has nailed all 11 field goal attempts this season, including two from beyond 50 yards.

The Panthers have a mediocre 11 sacks through six games, with Green Bay allowing two per tilt. Carolina has just seven takeaways, while the Packers have ceded eight turnovers.

Quarterback

Jordan Love ranks fourth in the league with a career high 279.7 passing yards per game and his 13 aerial strikes is tied for seventh. Though I am not a fan of leaning on the term “xxxx” funnel defense, the Panthers have a stark difference allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (195.7), but the second-most rushing yards (153.2).

That is no reason to shy away from Love, since he is the maestro of the offense and finally has an above average running back in the fold. The former Utah State Ute did rush for a touchdown during Week 6’s Sunday Night Football against Dallas, marking his second score in his last 42 starts, including playoffs. Books have him in around 260 passing yards, 4.5 rushing yards and -140 for o1.5 passing touchdowns.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs was back from his suspension, debuting with a 52% snap share, turning 11 totes into 36 yards and seven targets into five receptions for 55 yards and a score. His return banished Kaleb Johnson to the shadow realm and limiting Pierre Strong Jr. to just eight snaps with no offensive opportunities.

MarShawn Lloyd was on the field for 36% of the snaps, which is not too far under his 48% of the three preceding games. He converted both his targets into 15 yards, rushing for 20 more on six carries.

Wide Receivers

The big news is the status of Matthew Golden (shoulder/foot) who is going to be a game time decision and has not practiced on the short week. If he plays, it is hard to believe he will be full effective, though we will have to wait for the inactives to be released 90 minutes prior to kickoff. Best guess is that he should be considered around 70% if he is active, unless more specific information is forthcoming (insert laughter here).

Christian Watson has been outstanding this season, ranking 12th with 85.0 receiving yards per game, while Golden is 15th with 73.1. Savion Williams made his season debut on Sunday Night Football and he has snap shares of 53% and 60%, earning seven targets and four carries. He is no longer at a rock bottom salary, though he does provide salary relief and he will get a sizable boost if Golden sits.

Bo Melton is back on offense, after seeking playing time as a defensive back last year when things were super crowded at the wideout position. He has six of his 10 targets in the last three games and can be considered as a differentiation piece for those crafting 20 or more lineups if Golden plays and 15 if Golden is out.

J. Michael Sturdivant will run some routes, but his last target was in Week 4 and he has only four this season.

Tight End

Tucker Kraft is third on the team with 43 targets and he has not had much competition from his position-mates as Jonnu Smith has eight and Mark Redman three, with each seeing one lonely look in the last three games.

Kraft has two touchdowns this season and four games with at least 40 yards, but we are still waiting for him to lay down a monster, which could come tonight as we are on the cusp of Halloween.

Kickers and DST

Trey Smack: After starting three seasons for the University of Florida, Smack set the school record with nine career makes from 50-plus yards. He was chosen in the sixth-round and started off steady, though he has connected on just 5-of-9 (55%) in his last three games, with none from beyond 50 yards.

Green Bay is around league average with 16 sacks in seven games, though the Panthers are allowing just over three per tilt. The Packers lead the league with 13 takeaways, including nine interceptions, while Carolina has given up four fumbles and four picks.

NFL DFS Week 8 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Jordan Love: Come and get your Love!
2. Tetairoa McMillan: Slight edge over his field general.
3. Bryce Young: Did the clock strike midnight on his Cinderella season Sunday?
4. Chuba Hubbard: Contributes in all facets of the game.
5. Christian Watson: Has found success at all three levels this season.
6. Josh Jacobs: Should be mostly up to speed now and he has less wear and tear due to his suspension than most running backs at this point of the season.
7. Tucker Kraft: Could not quite come up with the perfect cheesy pun.
8. Jalen Coker: Benefits from all the attention going to McMillan, but to his credit he is converting on the increased opportunities.
9. Matthew Golden: If he were 100% he would be on the same line as Watson.
10. Ryan Fitzgerald: Homefield advantage and he has been solid on field goals, PATs are a different story.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Trey Smack: In the doldrums the last three games and his seat should be feeling warm.
13. Savion Williams: Officially the WR3 and getting some schemed runs, including a pair in each of his two games.
14. Green Bay DST: The Pack Attack has been on point this season for sacks and takeaways and Young has a history of facilitating both.
15. Darren Waller and Tommy Tremble: Tremble is half the cap hit of Waller on DraftKings and 30% cheaper on FanDuel, making this a tossup.
16. MarShawn Lloyd: Appears to be the lead for RB2, though Strong could take over if he is ineffective.
17. LOTTERY TICKETS
18. Carolina DST: Homefield advantage, but will need a fortuitous touchdown to be a difference maker.
19. John Metchie III: The DFS world is familiar with him from his many showdown slate appearances. WYSIWYG.
20. Trevor Etienne: RB2 by attrition.
21. Pierre Strong Jr.: It would not take much for him to overtake Lloyd and last Sunday’s split is not necessarily sticky, Lloyd just gets the first chance at non-Jacobs opportunities.
22. Anthony Tyus III: Similar to Strong, but with essentially no track record if Etienne is shaky.
23. Mitchell Evans and Brycen Tremayne: Deeper down the Panthers pecking order, but will at least be on the field.
24. Jonnu Smith, Bo Melton and Mark Redman: Green Bay version of the above.
25. Josh Whyle, Feleipe Franks, David Moore, J. Michael Sturdivant, AJ Dillon, Kaleb Johnson, Coleman Owen, Brett Favre and Cam Newton: Maybe next time.

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