Patriots vs Bears Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 7 TNF Top-10

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New England Patriots Overview

The Patriots are down to a paper-thin offensive line with backups and inexperienced youngsters across the board. Starting guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown are out tonight, with Greg Van Roten and Mike Onewenu already on the IR. Tackle Marcus Bryant is also on the IR and right tackle Morgan Moses (foot) is questionable. Second-year left tackle Will Campbell suffered a strained MCL in Week 5, though he did play Sunday. The former fourth overall selection from LSU is basically the last man standing. Matt Pryor was signed off the Arizona practice squad, and he will start at right guard, with Walter Rouse making his first NFL start at left guard, after being acquired from Minnesota in a late preseason trade.

The defensive backfield is also in trouble, with Carlton Davis III (neck) missing a third consecutive game, with fellow cornerbacks Karon Prunty (hamstring) and Channing Canada (hamstring) out as well. Safeties Kevin Byard (chest) and Craig Woodson (shoulder) are questionable.

For the skill-position players, wideouts Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs are both on the IR, along with fullback Reggie Gilliam.

Quarterback

Drake Maye looked nothing like the NFL MVP runner up in the first three games of the season, managing just one aerial score against six interceptions and nine sacks. Fast forward to tonight and he is poised to become the first Patriot since Tom Brady to potentially toss three touchdown passes for a fourth consecutive start.

The injuries to the offensive line and wide receiver corps are not helpful at all, though Maye has rushed for 24-plus yards in four of his six games and we know that is a big part of his overall success from his first two campaigns.

Three different opposing signal-callers have tossed multiple touchdowns against Chicago, with two rushing scores. Bryce Young ran for one, while throwing for 361 yards and three scores in the wild opener, while Jordan Love put up 367 yards and two scores in Week 5 at Green Bay.

Maye is going to need to do most of the heavy lifting tonight, but he has proven to be capable and it is comforting that he is back in the zone and the Bears are banged up on defense.

Running Back

Things are interesting with the running backs as the team is allowing TreVeyon Henderson to play through a high ankle sprain that has limited him to 12 and 16 snaps the last two games. Normally this would be a bonus for Rhamondre Stevenson, though UDFA Corey Kiner was given 11 carries, including eight in a row as New England wrapped up a 26-19 victory against the New York Jets.

To his credit, he picked up 42 yards and while the team indicated this was a hot hand approach, it may also have been an effort to keep Stevenson healthy and if Kiner had struggled, there would have been a switch to secure the win.

It is hard to be excited with Henderson who prior to his current injury had taken a backseat to Stevenson. If he were out, which seems unlikely, then it would really clear the way for Stevenson to be a core play.

Kiner is $4,000 on FanDuel which is meh, though at $1,400 on DraftKings he does have more appeal with the lower overall salary cap. He had three targets in four games last year for Arizona and he has two this season for the Pats, while also being the secondary kickoff returner.

Wide Receivers

What appeared to be a fully stocked position is now in trouble after Kayshon Boutte was dealt in late-August to Houston for safety Jaylen Reed, with Doubs and Hollins on the IR and A.J. Brown looking out of sorts in his return to action on Sunday after suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 1.

Brown converted on just three of 10 targets for 27 yards, with a couple of drops. He and Maye are too good for this to continue, and we need to remember they have not had much time to find chemistry. Eight different wideouts have tallied 60 or more yards against Chicago this season, including three with 123-plus.

Efton Chism III has nearly a 70% snap share over the last two games, ranking second for this position in the last two tilts. DeMario “Pop” Douglas will be the sure-handed safety valve, and second-year speedster Kyle Williams will continue to work the deep routes and getting 2-3 looks from Maye.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry continues to be a steady producer, and he has scored in each of the last two games, with 40 or more yards in four of the last five. He is not going to put forth eye-popping numbers, but he is a perfectly acceptable click for the single-slate format, with his upside tied to touchdowns, while providing a solid floor.

Rookie Eli Rairdon had five of his nine receptions in Week 5 against Las Vegas and he has been on the field for just over half of the offensive action. Cameron Latu is the TE3, though he has not had a target yet this season, nor has Tanner Arkin who is hit or miss to be on the active roster.

Kickers and DST

Andres Borregales has been steady after showing enough with the University of Miami to be a sixth-round selection last year. He led the ACC in field goals made (22) and attempted (28) as a junior, then did the same with extra points as a senior, converting all 62. In the pros, he is 5-for-5 from beyond 50 yards and there should be no weather issues at Soldier Field tonight.

Chicago has allowed just over three sacks per game, while the Patriots are collecting a tick over two. New England has corralled three fumbles and four interceptions, with the Bears suffering around two turnovers per tilt.

Chicago Bears Overview

Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson Sr. (hip) is questionable, while linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring) is doubtful with fellow linebacker Jack Sanborn (concussion) ruled out. Also in the last five days, defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo and safety Anthony Johnson Jr. were placed on the IR, joining linebackers Nephi Sewell, Tony Fields II and Ruben Hyppolite II and defensive backs Coby Bryant and Dallis Flowers.

The offensive is mostly healthy, with running Kyle Monangai (toe/thumb) ruled out for a third straight tilt.

Quarterback

Caleb Williams was solid after missing three games with a hamstring injury, posting 305 passing yards and one touchdown in Atlanta. He only had four carries for three yards, so we will have to see how he fares when he tucks the ball and runs.

Tonight will be a true test for the Patriots, who aside from Week 3 and 4 road games against Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen, has faced mediocre quarterbacks. Williams has 244.5 passing and 19.5 rushing yard props and is at -135 for o1.5 aerial scores.

Running Back

Chicago leads the league with 160.7 rushing yards per game, ranking second with 13 touchdowns behind the 14 of Buffalo, with the next best team at nine. Monangai ranks ninth with 81.0 rushing yards per game in his four healthy outings, while D’Andre Swift is 12th at 66.3, adding another 22.3 through the air. He also has added three of his six touchdowns in the two games without Monangai and is well-positioned to be a priority play in all formats tonight.

Over the last fortnight without Monangai, Roschon Johnson has made the most of the opportunity with 18/57/1 on the ground, converting nine targets for 7/68/0. He and Swift have compiled all of the plays and touches, so we should not expect anything from Zavier Scott who has been active as the RB3 with Monangai on the shelf.

Wide Receivers

Rome Odunze does most of his work on the outside (80%), so expectations are that he will see a lot of cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Luther Burden III has worked out of the slot for about half of his offensive action, with Kalif Raymond picking up the rest.

After seeing a hefty 21 targets in the first three games, Raymond has slipped to two, four and two, though he has a similar play participation rate as Burden, who has six, six and eight looks, in what appears to be a case of overall talent winning out.

Jahdae Walker and Zavion Thomas are likely to split 15-20 snaps, with each live for a target, though Thomas has a 4-2 edge over the last two games, with a carry for 11 yards. It is worth noting that Thomas did not step between the lines on offense in the opener, when Walker had a one-yard rushing score.

Tight Ends

Colston Loveland had just nine targets in the first three games, though he has 21 in the most recent trio of three. He should be on the field for at least 80% of the offensive action and while he has not posted the same dominating numbers as he did during the latter portion of last year, he is at least trending in the right direction after a pedestrian start.

Veteran Cole Kmet continues chugging along with a pair of opportunities in each of the last three games, though Sam Roush has slid back to obscurity with only one of his five looks taking place in the same timeframe.

Kickers and DST

Cairo Santos is in his 13th NFL season and seventh with Chicago. He is a steady producer and above-average on his effectiveness when considering the most of his games are outdoors.

Despite the patchwork offensive line, Maye has been sacked only twice in the last three games, after suffering three quarterback takedowns in each of the first three games. Chicago ranks fifth overall with nearly three sacks per game. The Bears have nine takeaways this season, while New England has the second most turnovers with 13, including a ridiculous six fumbles lost.

NFL DFS Week 7 TNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Drake Maye: Appears to be back in the groove.
2. Caleb Williams: If he was fully healthy and had not missed three games, he would get the slight nod ahead of Maye with this game being in Chi-Town.
3. D’Andre Swift: Contributes in all facets of the game and should be in for most high-leverage scenarios.
4. Luther Burden III: Avoiding Gonzalez by working out of the slot is key.
5. A.J. Brown: He shouldn’t be infected by the Philly stink … right? Though conceivably this could be a The Walking Dead situation where it is too late and his ankle injury activated the virus.
6. Rhamondre Stevenson: He should be the RB1 when push comes to shove, considering the health and inexperience of the other options.
7. Cairo Santos: Salary saver with a strong baseline of production.
8. DeMario “Pop” Douglas: Nominal WR2 via attrition.
9. Colston Loveland: Getting in before the remaining doubters are on board seems like a savvy strategy.
10. Andres Borregales: Less experience than Santos, though the same reasoning is behind this recommendation.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. Hunter Henry: Not that much different than Douglas, though harder for his playing time and opportunities to increase, meaning touchdowns are key to unlocking his upside.
13. Roschon Johnson: Very much in play on both FanDuel ($3,600) and DraftKings ($4,400) where he benefits from the full-PPR scoring format.
14. Rome Odunze: Former University of Washington stalwart has a tough row to hoe against Gonzalez tonight at his current salary. Keep in mind managing his foot issue is the new normal going forward, even when not carrying an injury designation.
15. LOTTERY TICKETS
16. TreVeyon Henderson: He would be at the top of the Secondar section if not for his high ankle sprain.
17. Chicago DST: One of the best ball hawking defenses at home against an offense putting out second-and-third stringers across most of the offensive line. Cue David Bowie’s Under Pressure opening riff.
18. Kalif Raymond: Resurgence of Loveland and continued ascendence of Burden have curtailed his rocket ship trajectory. He is still in play, though will need to get lost by the secondary on a broken play to really make his bones.
19. Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams: Lottery tickets for upside, but it only would take a couple targets to break even. If not for all the injuries to New England, this duo would be complete afterthoughts.
20. Corey Kiner: Moves to the top of the section in the unlikely event Henderson is inactive. Intriguing for those crafting more than five lineups on DraftKings and 10 on the blue site.
21. Eli Raridon and Cole Kmet: The TE2s for their respective teams, will they get to celebrate National Tight End Day early?
22. Zavion Thomas, Zavier Scott and Jahdae Walker: So you’re saying there’s a chance!
23. Cameron Latu, Sam Roush, Tanner Arkin and Ryan Miller: Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.

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