Steelers vs Bengals Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 10 SNF Top-10

Ask The Sims anything about Steelers at Bengals:

Pittsburgh Steelers Overview

Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson are on the IR, though the rest of the offense is healthy. The defense is without depth pieces in linemen Sebastian Joseph-Day and Logan Lee, with reserve nickelback Donte Kent also out tonight.

Pat Freiermuth was added to the injury report yesterday as questionable with an illness, with defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (foot) also questionable after being activated from the IR.

Quarterback

Tonight the two top teams in the NFC North square off as both are 6-2, with Pittsburgh being +3.5-point road dogs. The one advantage that the Steelers do have is that Cincinnati played last week in Madrid, giving the Bengals two lengthy travel days. Keep in mind the Steelers had their bye last week.

Aaron Rodgers has only one passing touchdown and one interception in the last two games, but those were Steeler victories propelled by the strong rushing attack. The four-time NFL MVP had four multi-touchdown games preceding this stretch, including against Cincinnati with a 292/3/1 effort in a 30-27 Week 3 victory.

Only two opposing quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdowns against the Bengals this season, but aside from corralling Michael Penix Jr. (162/1/1) last Sunday, Cam Ward (304/2/0) and Tyler Huntley (298/1/1) were able to put up stats, though their teams lost.

Rodgers has one rushing touchdown in his last 43 regular season games, with 58 carries for 201 yards, with 11 or more rushing yards four times in this arbitrary timeframe.

Running Back

Jaylen Warren has been outstanding and he leads the league with 5.9 yards per carry, posting a career best 88.0 rushing yards per game which is fifth overall and 36.8 receiving yards per game which is the second most, behind only Ashton Jeanty.

Rico Dowdle missed three games, during which Warren cemented his breakout, getting his first chances to have the backfield alone without Najee Harris or Dowdle in his five seasons. Dowdle has been back for three games and in the last two, Warren has cleared 140 combined yards in each, with Dowdle tallying 86 and 56.

Both players can be employed on the same lineups with Dowdle providing $4,000 in savings on DraftKings and a hefty $5,600 discount on FanDuel. Riley Nowakowski and Lew Nichols could pop up on the telly for a few snaps, though Nichols has two carries this year and Nowakowski has one target.

Wide Receivers

Across the last four games without Michael Pittman Jr., DK Metcalf has an 89% route share, 46% of the air yards and a 25% target share. In turn, rookie Germie Bernard is at 83%, 18% and 25%. Both receivers had voluminous games in Week 6 against Tampa with Metcalf seeing 15 opportunities for 11/93/0 and the rookie checking in with a dozen targets for 11/87/1.

In the two subsequent games, Metcalf has a 12 to 10 target advantage, but his deeper opportunities have not paid off with only three receptions for 60 yards, while Bernard has eight for 57 yards.

Since the injury to Pittman and then Roman Wilson the next game, Brandon Smith has moved into the nominal WR3 role with around a 40% aggregate snap share, with Brandon Johnson just over 10% with two and one targets respectively.

Tight Ends

Assuming Freiermuth (35 targets) feels up to playing, both he and Darnell Washington (28 targets) are solid clicks. If he is out, then Washington is a priority play with Robert Tonyan Jr. (one target for the season on half a dozen or so snaps per game) entering the mix as a wild card.

Kickers and DST

Chris Boswell was First-Team All-Pro in 2024, also being nominated to his second Pro Bowl team, with his first back in 2017. Though he is in his age-35 season, the team has kept him around for 12 years for his consistency and being able to kick well outdoors in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh had a season high eight sacks against Shedeur Sanders and while we are unlikely to see that again, the Steelers did have seven combined in the two preceding tilts. Blitzburgh also ranks in the top six with 13 takeaways.

Cincinnati Bengals Overview

The only notable offensive player missing tonight is wideout Andre Iosivas who is on the IR. However, the defense will be missing cornerback Jalen Davis and safety Kyle Dugger, along with linebacker Swayze Bozeman among the two-deep rotational players.

Quarterback

Joe Burrow leads the league with a 74.0% completion rate this season, propelling him to the top of the all-time leaderboard with a 69.0% success rate. He also is first with 23 passing touchdowns, 298.3 passing yards per game and his 114.8 passer rating, trailing only Brock Purdy (81.4) with his 79.5 QBR.

The Steelers have held firm with only seven passing touchdowns this season, though five of the last six opposing signal-callers have thrown for 267 or more yards, including Burrow in Week 3 with a 282/3/0 line as the only field general with multiple touchdowns. This has not exactly been a who’s who of top quarterbacks with Deshaun Watson accounting for two of the efforts, while Daniel Jones and Tyler Shough being the other two.

Running Back

In the last four games, no opposing running back has rushed for more than 46 yards, though three backs did clear 62 combined rushing and receiving yards. Chase Brown has been disappointing this season, averaging 49.6 rushing yards and 25.9 receiving yards with just one lonely touchdown.

Samaje Perine is more of a detriment to Brown’s production than a DFS recommendation, but he is usually the main passing down back and over the last trio of tilts, eh has five redzone opportunities to three for Brown and he does have one rushing and one receiving score which is “double” that of his counterpart.

This duo can be played together, though unlike their Pittsburgh counterparts, they do not have the same combined backfield opportunities with the offense focused on the pass.

Wide Receivers

Tee Higgins ranks fifth with 94.8 receiving yards per game and sixth with six touchdowns, while Ja’Marr Chase is tenth at 80.9 yards per game and second with seven scores. Expect this pair to be on the field for 80%-to-90% of the action, with Dohnte Meyers, Mitch Tinsley and Colbie Young feathering in as the WR3.

Among this motley crew, Meyers has eight targets since the Week 6 bye, while Tinsley has two and Young zero.

Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki really should be counted as a receiver, since he rarely lines up in-line. He has six scores this season, despite seeing just 26 targets for 19 receptions and 252 yards.

Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson and Jack Endries have also scored a touchdown, though Hudson is on the IR as is rookie Erick All Jr., which is giving Endries a path to limited playing time. Sample will be on the field the most as the main blocker, though he has a scant eight targets on the season.

Kickers and DST

In an oddity, since we know field goal opportunities are fickle, Evan McPherson did not have any in Weeks 7 and 8, though he did convert on five extra points in each matchup. He is perfect on the season in his dozen attempts, including six from beyond 50 yards, while also leading the league with 28 PATs made on as many kicks.

The Bengals were unable to collect any quarterback takedowns on Sunday against Michael Penix Jr., though they did have multiple sacks in every other game, along with five interceptions and seven fumble recoveries.

Rodgers hates being hit, though he has four games with at least three sacks this season, including two with five. Cincinnati got him twice back in the Week 3 matchup.

NFL DFS Week 10 SNF Showdown: Top-10

1. Ja’Marr Chase: This is not as clear a ranking as it is most prime time games.
2. Jaylen Warren: Dual threat and hopefully continues to be the “lead” back, though we could see coach Mike McCarthy “forget” who his best player is in-game.
3. Tee Higgins: Easily considered for the multiplier slot, only a $600 savings from Chase on both sites, but he brings less rostership as the “discount” which is crucial for single-slate differentiation.
4. Joe Burrow: Definitely in play as the top option.
5. Evan McPherson: We need some discounted floor production. Temperatures in the low-40s, though no precipitation and limited wind concerns.
6. Germie Bernard: Things start to get jumbled for the latter portion of this tier, but the second-round rookie has earned the trust of Rodgers.
7. Aaron Rodgers: Nothing added with his legs and the offense is conservative, but he loves the limelight and has experience on his side.
8. Chris Boswell: Would flip with McPherson if the game were in Pittsburgh.
9. Chase Brown: Has not created distance from Perine, tough matchup and overall lack of explosiveness are a problem. Surprising to see him crater after two seasons of sustained success where he averaged 1,400 combined yards and 11 touchdowns.
10. Rico Dowdle: Needs a fortuitous touchdown or something to befall Warren in-game to really make some noise, but still a solid fantasy point per dollar ratio.
11. SECONDARY TARGETS
12. DK Metcalf: Meh, but still getting targets.
13. Pat Freiermuth: Illness gives him a slight downgrade below Metcalf.
14. Darnell Washington: If Freiermuth misses, Washington jumps above Brown.
15. LOTTERY TICKETS
16. Dohnte Meyers: Intriguing on both sites, though falls short of being an emphatic salary saving core click.
17. Cincinnati DST: Got to Rodgers for two sacks and a fumble in the first meeting.
18. Pittsburgh DST: Burrow has really cut down his sack rate to an acceptable 4.8%, which is well below his 6.9% career mark.
19. Samaje Perine: Unlikely to surpass the baseline set with Brown, but a trailing score scenario would likely have him popping up on leaderboard entries.
20. Mike Gesicki: Touchdowns have papered over the inherent lack of consistent game-to-game volume.
21. Drew Sample: Should play at least half the snaps, targets are a different story.
22. Robert Tonyan Jr.: $200 baller on DraftKings, only if Freiermuth is out and for those crafting 20+ lineups as he has only one target this season.
23. Jack Endries, Brandon Smith, Brandon Johnson, Colbie Young, Mitch Tinsley, Dohnte Meyers, Cam Grandy and Tahj Brooks: Deep down the Cinci depth chart, expect a couple to be inactive. Meyers is the main punt and kickoff returner.
24. Ben Skowronek, Travis Homer, Kaden Wetjen, Lew Nichols and Riley Nowakowski: Pittsburgh version of the above, with Wetjen the main punt and kickoff returner.

Build it with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Build EMac's showdown card with the Stokastic NFL Sims. Simulate the slate up to 10,000 times to find the highest-upside captain and flex builds, then use code EMAC15 for 15% off Stokastic Sims. Get Stokastic Sims with EMAC15

More on this: Colts vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 SNF Top-10 · Lions Vs Bills Showdown DFS: EMac's Week 2 TNF Top-10 · Broncos Vs Chiefs Showdown DFS: The Edge Isn't At Captain · Cowboys Vs Giants Showdown DFS: Don't Captain Prescott · Patriots vs Seahawks Showdown DFS: The Opener's Captain Question