AJ Barner Props: The Market Overpays For A Quiet Night

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Seattle goes to Denver at 3-2 against 3-2, with the Season Engine projecting 10.5 wins for the Seahawks and 10.0 for the Broncos. The Sims win the game for Seattle in 57.8% of runs and Kalshi asks 58.7 cents. Close games price tight boards, and a tight end who touches the ball three times a night feels that more than most.

AJ Barner Props: Receiving Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Barner game in these simulations is 24; the average is 28.6 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 4 to 59, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 183. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Barner Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

The ordinary side of his board is calmer than that. Fifteen yards is 70.0% in the simulations against 71.5 cents, 25 is 49.5 against 51.7, and 40 is 26.6 against 28.4, all of them the usual cent or two of premium. His receptions ladder carries the same small tax the whole way up.

AJ Barner Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. Scores a TD and 25+ receiving yards land together in 1,227 of the 10,000 runs, which is 12.3%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 11.5%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs in the buyer's favor here: the same script that produces one leg tends to produce the other. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

AJ Barner Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 17.9% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 22.2 cents, a gap of -4.3.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

Nothing here clears two cents for a buyer. The finding is on the other side of the board, where the contracts that look cheapest on a low-volume tight end carry the biggest markup.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

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