Ask the Sims Tonight: Commanders at 49ers, Live At Kickoff

What People Asked First

The most-asked question on this game since Sunday, by a distance, is "Best 3-leg parlay if the 49ers win"; tap it and the simulator asks it for you. Fifteen asks from 12 people in those words, and another 11 asks for the four-leg version. The Sims answer it as a conditional: they keep only the runs where San Francisco wins, then find the three legs that hit together most often in those runs against what Kalshi charges for them.

The top ticket on last night's run: 49ers by 2+, Christian McCaffrey 70+ rushing yards, Rachaad White under 50 rushing yards. It hits in 31.9% of the runs where the 49ers win and 24.4% of all 10,000, against a combined Kalshi price that implies 19.8¢ and pays +405. The card says what that means in one line: 12.1¢ of edge before the fee, 11.0¢ a contract with it, if your take is right.

The next most-asked questions were straight ones. "Niners win by 7+" is 57.6% in the Sims against 58.7¢, priced to the Sims. "George Kittle TD" is 45.9% against 47.7¢, 1.8¢ against you. "Brock Purdy 250+ passing yards" is 62.9% against 51.7¢, 11.2¢ of edge, the widest YES edge on tonight's board.

What The Sims Say Right Now

The game lines are priced where the Sims have them. The money is in the passing lines, and it is the same story from both sidelines: a 7.5-point favorite on the DraftKings line ESPN shows, which the market expects to run the clock, and a 10,000-run script in which San Francisco keeps throwing and Washington has to. Purdy clears 275 in 47.6% of runs against a 36.6¢ price. Daniels completes 19 passes in 63.1% of runs against 55.7¢. Both are on the Monday Night Football picks page with the full cards.

Try asking, one tap each: Best 4-leg parlay if the 49ers win · Who is most likely to score a TD? · Brock Purdy 2+ passing TDs · 49ers cover the spread · George Kittle 40+ receiving yards · Same if the Commanders win

Ask the Sims any of these yourself and the card you get back carries the count, the Kalshi price, the edge, and one more line: when the side you asked about is the wrong side, the card says so and names the better one. Ask "Brandin Cooks scores a TD" and it answers 15.1% against 27.3¢, then tells you the NO is the bet.

Drop Your Slip Before You Place It

The picture button inside the Ask field reads a bet slip screenshot. Every leg is counted in the same 10,000 runs, which is the whole point of a parlay check: the legs are not independent, and the price assumes they are.

The slip reader, the typed start/sit and a straight question, Monday morning on the Ask the Sims hub. Tap to open it.

The sample above is a four-leg DraftKings-style ticket for tonight at +650: McCaffrey to score, Daniels over 225.5 passing yards, Kittle over 4.5 receptions, McLaurin over 60.5 receiving yards. The Sims hit all four together in 8.7% of runs, 867 of 10,000, fair odds +1053 against the slip's +650, and every dollar at +650 comes back as 65 cents on average. Leg by leg: McCaffrey scores in 69.2%, Daniels clears 225.5 in 38.1%, Kittle catches five in 62.9%, McLaurin clears 60.5 in 33.5%. The correlation is real, those legs happen in the same kind of game, and the price still takes more than it gives. Drop your own slip and read the fair odds against the book's before you place it. The full how-to is in Ask the Sims reads your screenshots now.

Start Or Sit, Typed

For a Monday night fantasy decision, type two names. "Christian McCaffrey vs Jayden Daniels" comes back as who scores more fantasy points in 10,000 runs, with each player's typical week, his bad week and his big week, and a plain call: "Start X" when the gap is 10 points or more, "Close call: lean X" when it is not. Monday morning it came back 62.4% to 37.6% for McCaffrey, "Start Christian McCaffrey": a typical 21.6 points against Daniels's 18.0, a 20-point week in 56.4% of runs against 40.2%, and a ceiling of 47.3.

At 8:15, Switch To Live Sims

This is the tool to use tonight. Once the game starts, Ask the Sims offers Live Sims. Flip it and every answer is counted only from the runs that match the game as it stands: the score, the quarter, the clock. Ask "Brock Purdy 275+ passing yards" at halftime with Purdy at 140 and the Sims do not answer from 10,000 pregame runs; they answer from the few hundred runs that reached halftime looking like this one, and the card says so in its first line.

Here is what that looked like on Sunday afternoon, a real answer from the Bills-Raiders game: "Live Sims · Q3 6:22, Bills 23, Raiders 13: counted from the Sims that match the game right now." Then the number: Kirk Cousins under 241.5 passing yards, 59.9%, 261 of the 436 runs that matched. Four hundred thirty-six, not ten thousand. That is the honest sample for a bet placed in the third quarter, and no pregame page can give it to you.

The pregame answer stays one tap away ("See pregame Sims"), so you can see what the game has already changed.

The Order Tonight

1. Now: ask the questions above, or your own, on the Kalshi Combo Simulator. The DraftKings and FanDuel simulators price the same runs at those books.
2. Before you place a parlay: drop the slip on the Ask box and read the fair odds.
3. Fantasy lineup due at 8:15: type the two names.
4. 8:15 p.m. ET: switch to Live Sims. Re-ask your pregame questions at the end of the first quarter and at halftime; the counts change with the score.
5. After the game: the Sims grade every answer. Tap "Get this bet graded" on any card and the result comes by email.

Ask the Sims counts outcomes across 10,000 simulations of each game, and Live Sims across the simulations that match the game in progress; the percentages are estimates, not guarantees. Prices in the table are Kalshi's as of the 5:25 a.m. CT Monday board, fee included; the cards carry the price at the moment of the ask, and all of them move. Questions counted from the Ask the Sims log, Sunday through 9:20 a.m. CT Monday, readers only.