Eagles at Bears · Monday 8:15 p.m. ET · ESPN/ABC
Eagles vs Bears Prediction: Chicago's Third Quarterback
By Jake Hari
September 25, 2026
Prices as of Friday, September 25, 2026, 6:58 a.m. ET. Kalshi prices, before fees. Caleb Williams is listed doubtful (right hamstring) and Tyson Bagent questionable (concussion); every price on this page reflects Case Keenum as the probable Chicago starter.
The Eagles are 2-0, and both wins fit on a bar napkin: 24-22 over Washington, 24-20 at Tennessee. Six points of margin in two games, Jalen Hurts with two interceptions in the second one, and now a road trip to Chicago with Dallas Goedert doubtful, DeVonta Smith questionable, and all three running backs on the injury report. Saquon Barkley got 4 carries last week after a stinger.
Chicago's season so far is two games that do not belong to the same team. It scored 59 in Carolina, then 3 at home in the rain against Minnesota, and Caleb Williams strained his hamstring in the fourth quarter of the second one. His backup went into the concussion protocol on Tuesday. Case Keenum, in his 14th NFL season, is the one healthy quarterback on the active roster, and the price of the game was built on him.
The market has the Eagles by 4.5, a coin flip on that number, and the total sitting low. I have a side of this one. Pick yours first.
Pick Your Script
Pick the game you think we get. You'll see the price the market puts on it, what has to happen, and the cleanest way to bet it. My pick is at the bottom.
Script: Eagles cover · Philadelphia wins by 5 or more
51% market chance · Eagles by 5 or more costs 51¢.
What has to happen
- Keenum starts, and Chicago's offense looks like the Minnesota game (3 points), not the Carolina game (59).
- Hurts keeps the ball. Both interceptions in Tennessee turned into Titans points, and the Eagles still won by 4.
- Philadelphia scores its usual 24 and the Bears stop at 17. Bears over 17.5 points costs 53¢, so the market has that part as a coin flip too.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Eagles by 5 or more | 51¢ | The number the game is priced at, and the one that pays if the Eagles do what a 4.5-point favorite is supposed to do. |
| Also | Eagles by 7 or more | 45¢ | Six cents cheaper for two more points of margin. Worth it if your version of this game has Keenum throwing it away. |
| Skip | Eagles to win | 69¢ | Philadelphia has won by 2 and by 4. At 69¢ you are paying for the wins you already believe in and getting nothing for the margin. |
My readThe line was built on Keenum, and Keenum is who the Bears have. Philadelphia winning I can see. Five or more, with Goedert out and Smith and Barkley on the report, is where I have to think.
Script: Eagles roll · Philadelphia wins by 10 or more
36% market chance · Eagles by 10 or more costs 36¢. Eagles by 14 or more is 27¢.
What has to happen
- Keenum turns it over. D'Andre Swift already lost a fumble against Minnesota, and the Bears scored 3 that day.
- Hurts throws three touchdowns the way he did against Washington (14 of 25, 203 yards, 3 scores).
- Chicago's secondary, already without Kyler Gordon, who is out, loses Tyrique Stevenson too. He is questionable with a hamstring.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Eagles by 10 or more | 36¢ | A third-string quarterback down two scores in the fourth quarter is how 10 becomes 17. This is the contract that pays for that. |
| Also | Eagles by 5 or more | 51¢ | Costs 15¢ more and still cashes when the rout stalls at a touchdown, which is what happened to Philadelphia in both of its games. |
| Skip | Eagles by 14 or more | 27¢ | The Eagles have not won by more than 4 this season. Two touchdowns of margin from an offense missing its tight end is a price I would not pay. |
My readA 10-point win means holding Chicago to 14 with a third quarterback under center, which can happen, and then scoring 24 without Goedert and maybe without Smith. If you want the Eagles, the 4.5 is the cheaper way to want them.
Script: Nail-biter · Decided by 4 points or fewer
29% market chance · No single contract, so this is two added together: Eagles by 1 to 4 is 18% (Eagles to win at 69¢ minus Eagles by 5 or more at 51¢), Bears by 1 to 4 is 11% (Bears to win at 32¢ minus Bears by 5 or more at 21¢).
What has to happen
- Philadelphia plays its third straight one-score game. It beat Washington by 2 and Tennessee by 4.
- Keenum hands it to Swift and Kyle Monangai and stays out of the way. In Carolina those two ran for 224 yards and 4 touchdowns between them.
- The Eagles' injury list shows up on the scoreboard: Goedert doubtful with an MCL sprain, Smith in sweats on Thursday, Barkley wearing a brace on his shoulder and neck.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Bears +4.5 | 50¢ | Cashes on any Bears win and any Eagles win by 4 or fewer, and 4 or fewer is every Eagles win so far. |
| Also | Eagles to win + Bears +4.5 | $1.19 | The middle. An Eagles win by 1 to 4 pays both, $2.00 back on $1.19. Any other result pays one of them and costs you 19¢. |
| Skip | Eagles by 10 or more | 36¢ | A rout and a one-score game cannot both happen. If this is your script, the 36¢ is dead money. |
My readTwo coin-flip finishes against teams that were not supposed to keep up is a pattern, not a fluke, and a veteran who will not force the ball is how a third one happens. This is why I don't lay the 4.5.
Script: Bears win · Chicago wins with its third quarterback
32% market chance · Chicago wins costs 32¢.
What has to happen
- Swift and Monangai carry it 30 times and Keenum throws 20 passes. Those two ran for 224 yards and 4 scores between them in Carolina.
- Hurts throws it to the wrong team again. Both picks in Tennessee turned into points.
- Chicago's defense holds a hobbled Eagles offense under 20. It held Minnesota to 9 last week.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Bears to win | 32¢ | One contract, one outcome. If Keenum wins this game, this is how you get paid for believing it. |
| Also | Bears +4.5 | 50¢ | Pays less on a Bears win but keeps paying on a 3-point loss, which is the likelier way a Keenum game ends. |
| Skip | Bears by 4 or more | 24¢ | Chicago winning by a field goal and change with its third quarterback. Too many things have to go right for 24¢. |
My readI would need Williams active to pay 32¢ for this, and he is doubtful. With Keenum the path is Swift, weather and a Hurts mistake. That is three things, and I am not paying for three things.
Script: Slog · The teams combine for 41 or fewer
52% market chance · Under 41.5 costs 52¢. Under 38.5 is 41¢.
What has to happen
- Keenum starts. Chicago scored 3 points last week with Williams; the passing game managed 138 yards.
- Philadelphia scores 24 for a third straight week, or less. It is missing Goedert, and Smith caught 10 of 13 targets for 117 yards in Tennessee and may not play.
- Soldier Field does what it did last week. The Minnesota game was wet and windy and produced 12 points.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Under 41.5 | 52¢ | One contract that covers the whole script, and a 23-17 game lands under it. |
| Also | Under 38.5 | 41¢ | Eleven cents cheaper, and it needs the Minnesota version of the Bears: 21-17 lands, 24-17 does not. |
| Skip | Under 35.5 | 32¢ | That is the Minnesota game again. One Hurts-to-Smith drive breaks it. |
My readThis is the game I see. Two banged-up offenses, one of them starting a third quarterback, on a September night in Chicago.
Script: Hurts finds the end zone · Jalen Hurts scores a touchdown
38% market chance · Hurts 1+ touchdown costs 38¢. 2+ is 8¢.
What has to happen
- The Eagles get inside the 5 and go to the tush push instead of a handoff. Barkley, Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley are all on the injury report.
- Hurts gets what he has not had yet: he has 12 carries for 62 yards and zero rushing touchdowns through two games.
- Philadelphia scores three touchdowns, which it has done in both games.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Hurts 1+ touchdown | 38¢ | Pays on one sneak from the 1, which is the play the Eagles run when nothing else works. |
| Also | Eagles over 23.5 points | 49¢ | Pays whoever scores. If the offense gets to 24 a third time, Hurts probably had a hand in it, but this cashes either way. |
| Skip | Hurts first touchdown | 10¢ | The first score has to be his. Swift's first-touchdown price is 17¢, and the first score of a Keenum game is more likely a handoff. |
My readThe goal-line sneak is the one Eagles play the injury report cannot touch. Zero rushing scores in two games is why this costs 38¢ and not 45, and a low-scoring game makes each Philadelphia touchdown more likely to come from a yard out.
Why A 2-0 Team Is Only Favored By 4.5
A team that has won its two games by 2 and by 4 does not get laid a touchdown, even against a third quarterback. The 4.5 is the market splitting the difference between a 2-0 record and a plus-6 point differential. If Williams is cleared before kickoff, every price on this page moves; check them before you buy.
Eagles: Two Wins, Six Points
The Offense Gets To 24 And Stops
Philadelphia scored 24 against Washington and 24 at Tennessee. Hurts has thrown five touchdowns and two interceptions, both picks became Titans points, and he has not run one in yet.
The Injury Report Is The Offense
Goedert is doubtful with an MCL sprain. Smith, who had 117 receiving yards and a touchdown in Tennessee, was in sweats on Thursday and is questionable. Barkley went from 15 carries in the opener to 4 in Tennessee after a stinger, was limited Thursday in a brace on his shoulder and neck, and is still the healthiest back on the roster, because Bigsby (abdomen) and Shipley (foot) did not practice at all. There is no Barkley contract on the board for this game.
Lean: the Eagles win, and a 24-point offense missing its tight end does not win by a lot.
Bears: Fifty-Nine, Then Three
The 59 Needed Williams
In Carolina, Williams threw 2 touchdowns and ran for 2 more, and Swift ran for 124 yards and 3 scores behind him. Take the quarterback's legs out of that offense and the run game has to carry every drive.
The 3 Came With Williams Healthy
At home against Minnesota, in wet and windy weather, the Bears scored 3. Williams threw for 138 yards with an interception before he strained his hamstring in the fourth quarter, and Swift lost a fumble.
Keenum Is The Starter The Line Assumes
Williams is doubtful. Bagent entered the concussion protocol Tuesday and is questionable. Keenum, in his 14th season, is the only healthy quarterback on the active roster and has not thrown a pass this year. The defense that gave up 37 to Carolina held Minnesota to 9, and it gets the Eagles at a moment when Philadelphia's top tight end is doubtful and its top receiver and top back are questionable.
Lean: Chicago's best version of Monday is a game where nobody scores much. That is not the same thing as a Bears win.
My Take
The Eagles have scored 24 in each game with Goedert, Smith and Barkley healthy. Monday they are without Goedert and may be without the other two, on the road, on a short list of playmakers. Philadelphia's side of this total is 21 to 24 points, and that is the part of the number that does not depend on who plays quarterback for Chicago.
Chicago's side does depend on it. Keenum starting means a run-first, throw-short offense against a defense that has allowed 21 points a game. Williams starting means a quarterback on a strained hamstring, eight days after the injury. The Bears scored 3 at home last week with their starter healthy for three and a half quarters. A 23-17 Eagles win lands a point and a half under the number.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More on this: Why Only Four And A Half: Eagles vs Bears Monday Night Picks · Kalshi NFL Prop Picks Sunday: The Steal Never Ran · NFL Win Projections 2026: Chicago Lost The Most Wins
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