Ravens at Cowboys · Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET · CBS · Rio de Janeiro
Ravens vs Cowboys Prediction: Dallas Is Home In Name Only
By Jake Hari
September 25, 2026
Prices as of Friday, September 25, 2026, 6:58 a.m. ET. Kalshi prices, before fees.
Dallas is the home team on the schedule. The game is at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, the first NFL game in the city, and both teams make the same trip, so the Cowboys are home in name only. What they do bring is an offense that just hung 37 on Washington, with Dak Prescott going 26 of 31 for 279 yards and four touchdowns, and a defense that will play without three of its defensive backs.
Baltimore lands 1-1 after losing 24-17 at home to New Orleans, one week after putting 41 on Indianapolis. The market has the Ravens laying 3.5 on a neutral field and the total at 53.5, a shootout number for two defenses that have allowed 47 and 48 points.
My pick is at the bottom. First, how do you see it?
Pick Your Script
Pick the game you think we get. Each one shows the price the market puts on it, what has to happen, and the cleanest way to bet it.
Script: Ravens cover · Baltimore wins by 4 or more
49% market chance · Ravens by 4 or more costs 49¢. Ravens by 7 or more is 40¢.
What has to happen
- Derrick Henry gets his carries. He ran 24 times for 144 yards at Indianapolis.
- Lamar Jackson picks on a secondary missing P.J. Locke, Cobie Durant and Malik Hooker. Baltimore's 10.0 yards per pass attempt leads the league.
- The Ravens hold the ball and Dallas, which cannot run, never gets it back for long.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Ravens by 4 or more | 49¢ | Pays on any Baltimore win by a field goal plus one, which is what a Henry fourth quarter produces. |
| Also | Ravens to win | 63¢ | Costs 14¢ more to cover the field-goal win, the finish Baltimore gave New Orleans in reverse. |
| Skip | Ravens by 7 or more | 40¢ | Dallas converts 68% of its third downs. A touchdown margin asks Baltimore to keep that offense off the field for a full half. |
My readBaltimore has the best unit on the field, and Dallas is missing the players who would slow it.
Script: Dak steals it · Dallas wins outright
38% market chance · Cowboys to win costs 38¢.
What has to happen
- Prescott keeps this up. He went 26 of 31 for 279 and four touchdowns against Washington, and his six touchdown passes are tied for the league lead.
- CeeDee Lamb does it again. He caught 8 of 9 for 153 and two scores last week.
- Dallas keeps finishing drives. It has scored on every red-zone trip this season and converts 68% of its third downs, both first in the league.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Cowboys to win | 38¢ | A Dallas win here comes on the last drive, and 38¢ pays for the win without caring by how much. |
| Also | No on Ravens by 4 or more | 52¢ | Cashes a Cowboys win and a Baltimore win by a field goal, which covers the two ways this script ends. |
| Skip | Cowboys by 4 or more | 28¢ | A comfortable Dallas win needs a defense with two sacks all season to get stops, and it has not. |
My readThe offense can do it. The defense is why I do not think it does: two sacks all season, no interceptions, and three defensive backs out.
Script: Nail biter · The game is decided by 3 points or less
24% market chance · No single contract, so this is two added together: Ravens by 1 to 3 is 14% (Ravens to win at 63¢ less Ravens by 4 or more at 49¢), Cowboys by 1 to 3 is 10% (38¢ less 28¢).
What has to happen
- Baltimore leads late and cannot close, the way it did not close at home against the Saints.
- A kicker decides it. Brandon Aubrey went 3 for 3 on field goals last week. Tyler Loop went 1 for 2.
- The offenses trade scores and the last possession settles it.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | No on Ravens by 4 or more | 52¢ | Wins on every Dallas finish and every Baltimore win by 3 or fewer, and a one-score game lands on one of those. |
| Also | Ravens to win + No on Ravens by 4 or more | $1.15 | The middle. Baltimore by 1 to 3 cashes both for $2.00. Anything else cashes one and loses 15¢. |
| Skip | Ravens by 7 or more | 40¢ | A touchdown margin is the one finish a nail biter rules out. |
My readBoth Baltimore games this year were decided by a touchdown or more. I would rather pay 52¢ for Dallas with the points than build a middle.
Script: Track meet · The teams combine for 54 or more
49% market chance · Over 53.5 costs 49¢. Over 58.5 is 35¢.
What has to happen
- Baltimore keeps moving it: 434.5 yards a game, fourth in the league, on 10.0 yards a pass attempt.
- Dallas keeps scoring: 20 and 37 so far, and a touchdown on 86% of its red-zone trips.
- Neither pass rush gets home. Dallas has two sacks all year.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Over 53.5 | 49¢ | Two offenses averaging 29 and 28.5 points get there with a field goal to spare. |
| Also | Cowboys over 24.5 points | 49¢ | If your track meet runs through Prescott, bet Dallas's points and let Baltimore's take care of themselves. |
| Skip | Over 64.5 | 21¢ | Needs both teams in the 30s, and Baltimore's defense gave up 24 to the Saints, not 34. |
My readThe number is big and I still lean over. Dallas cannot stop anyone right now, and Baltimore does not need 40 throws to score 30.
Script: Henry's day · Derrick Henry runs for 100 or more
42% market chance · Henry 100 or more rushing yards costs 42¢. Henry to score a touchdown is 66¢.
What has to happen
- Baltimore plays with a lead and feeds him. He had 24 carries at Indianapolis and 16 against New Orleans.
- He keeps averaging 5.3 a carry. His 212 yards are third in the league behind Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III.
- Dallas has to sell out for Jackson on the edge, and the inside runs go untouched to the second level.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Henry 100+ rushing yards | 42¢ | He got there on 24 carries at Indianapolis, and a Baltimore lead means 24 carries again. |
| Also | Henry anytime touchdown | 66¢ | Four touchdowns in two games, and Baltimore has scored a touchdown on two of every three red-zone trips. |
| Skip | Henry 140+ rushing yards | 16¢ | Needs a second Indianapolis in three weeks against a front that held Washington to 5.7 a carry, not 6. |
My readIf Baltimore wins big, this is how. Henry at 100 and the Ravens by 4 are close to the same bet, so pick one.
Script: Dak's arm · Prescott throws for 300 or more
30% market chance · Prescott 300 or more passing yards costs 30¢. 275 or more is 46¢.
What has to happen
- Dallas throws because it cannot run: 67.5 rushing yards a game, 30th in the league, on 3.5 a carry.
- Lamb and George Pickens both get loose. Lamb had 153 last week; Pickens caught 6 of 8 for 40.
- Baltimore gets ahead and Dallas has to chase. Prescott needed 31 throws for 279 last week; a chase game means 40.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Prescott 300+ passing yards | 30¢ | Pays on a Cowboys loss too, and a Cowboys loss is the game where he throws 40 times. |
| Also | Lamb 100+ receiving yards | 35¢ | Same chase game, one player: he had 153 on nine targets last week. |
| Skip | Prescott 350+ passing yards | 13¢ | He has not thrown for 300 yet this season. |
My readThe chase game is real, and this is the one Dallas ticket that pays when the Cowboys lose. That is why I like it more than the moneyline.
Why Baltimore Is Favored On A Neutral Field
A road favorite usually pays for the trip. Here both teams make the same trip, so the price is mostly about the two rosters, and Baltimore's is healthier.
Ravens: The Best Offense On The Field
The Saints Game Was Baltimore Beating Itself
Baltimore put 41 on Indianapolis, then scored 17 at home and lost to the Saints, a game it turned over and took three sacks in. The offense is still first in yards per pass attempt.
Without Flowers, The Deep Shot Has Fewer Takers
Zay Flowers (hamstring) did not practice Thursday and is questionable, and Ronnie Stanley (toe) carries the same tag. Rashod Bateman caught 7 of 9 for 88 and a touchdown against New Orleans, so the targets have somewhere to go, but the deep shot that makes this offense first in yards per attempt runs through Flowers.
Lean: Baltimore's floor is the run game, and the run game is fine.
Cowboys: Dak's Week, Then The Injury Report
Prescott Finishes Every Drive
Prescott threw four touchdowns on 31 attempts against Washington, and Dallas has scored on every red-zone trip this season. The offense is not the problem.
No Run Game, No Pass Rush
Dallas averages 3.5 a carry, and the defense has two sacks this season and no interceptions. The Cowboys have held the ball 25:55 a game, 31st in the league.
Three Defensive Backs Out Against The League's Best Pass Offense
P.J. Locke (foot), Cobie Durant (hamstring) and Malik Hooker (forearm) are ruled out, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) is not making the trip. Markquese Bell starts at safety.
Lean: Dallas keeps up for a half and runs out of defenders.
My Take
The neutral field takes away the one thing Dallas had going: its building. The Cowboys lose the crowd and keep the injury report. Baltimore's offense is fourth in yards and first in yards per pass attempt, and it gets a secondary missing Locke, Durant and Hooker. Henry gives it a way to finish drives and kill the clock that Dallas, at 3.5 a carry, does not have.
The Saints game is why this is one unit and not two.
Ravens by 4 or more at 49¢. One unit, half if Flowers is out.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More on this: A Shootout In Rio: Ravens vs Cowboys Picks · Kalshi NFL Prop Picks Sunday: Montgomery Is A Steal · NFL Win Projections 2026: Chicago Lost The Most Wins
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