Prices as of Sunday, September 27, 2026, 7:52 a.m. ET. Kalshi prices, before fees. Inactives are in: Zay Flowers and Ronnie Stanley are out for Baltimore.
Dallas is the home team on the schedule. The game is at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, the first NFL game in the city, and both teams make the same trip, so the Cowboys are home in name only. What they do bring is an offense that just hung 37 on Washington, with Dak Prescott going 26 of 31 for 279 yards and four touchdowns, and a defense that will play without three of its defensive backs.
Baltimore lands 1-1 after losing 24-17 at home to New Orleans, one week after putting 41 on Indianapolis. The market has the Ravens laying 3.5 on a neutral field and the total at 53.5, a shootout number for two defenses that have allowed 47 and 48 points.
My pick is at the bottom. First, how do you see it?
Pick Your Script
Pick the game you think we get. Each one shows the price the market puts on it, what has to happen, and the cleanest way to bet it.
Tap a script to see its price and how to bet it.
If you think
Baltimore wins by 4 or more
48%market chance
48% market chance · Ravens by 4 or more costs 48¢. Ravens by 7 or more is 40¢.
What has to happen
Derrick Henry gets his carries. He ran 24 times for 144 yards at Indianapolis.
Lamar Jackson picks on a secondary missing P.J. Locke, Cobie Durant and Malik Hooker. Baltimore's 10.0 yards per pass attempt leads the league.
The Ravens hold the ball and Dallas, which cannot run, never gets it back for long.
How to bet it
Contract
Price
Why
BEST
Ravens by 4 or more
48¢$10 → $20.83
Pays on any Baltimore win by a field goal plus one, which is what a Henry fourth quarter produces.
ALSO
Ravens to win
63¢$10 → $15.87
Costs 15¢ more to cover the field-goal win, the finish Baltimore gave New Orleans in reverse.
SKIP
Ravens by 7 or more
40¢$10 → $25.00
Dallas converts 68% of its third downs. A touchdown margin asks Baltimore to keep that offense off the field for a full half.
My read
Baltimore has the best unit on the field, and Dallas is missing the players who would slow it.
If you think
Dallas wins outright
38%market chance
38% market chance · Cowboys to win costs 38¢.
What has to happen
Prescott keeps this up. He went 26 of 31 for 279 and four touchdowns against Washington, and his six touchdown passes are tied for the league lead.
CeeDee Lamb does it again. He caught 8 of 9 for 153 and two scores last week.
Dallas keeps finishing drives. It has scored on every red-zone trip this season and converts 68% of its third downs, both first in the league.
How to bet it
Contract
Price
Why
BEST
Cowboys to win
38¢$10 → $26.32
A Dallas win here comes on the last drive, and 38¢ pays for the win without caring by how much.
ALSO
No on Ravens by 4 or more
53¢$10 → $18.87
Cashes a Cowboys win and a Baltimore win by a field goal, which covers the two ways this script ends.
SKIP
Cowboys by 4 or more
26¢$10 → $38.46
A comfortable Dallas win needs a defense with two sacks all season to get stops, and it has not.
My read
The offense can do it. The defense is why I do not think it does: two sacks all season, no interceptions, and three defensive backs out.
If you think
The game is decided by 3 points or less
27%market chance
27% market chance · No single contract, so this is two added together: Ravens by 1 to 3 is 15% (Ravens to win at 63¢ less Ravens by 4 or more at 48¢), Cowboys by 1 to 3 is 12% (38¢ less 26¢).
What has to happen
Baltimore leads late and cannot close, the way it did not close at home against the Saints.
A kicker decides it. Brandon Aubrey went 3 for 3 on field goals last week. Tyler Loop went 1 for 2.
The offenses trade scores and the last possession settles it.
How to bet it
Contract
Price
Why
BEST
No on Ravens by 4 or more
53¢$10 → $18.87
Wins on every Dallas finish and every Baltimore win by 3 or fewer, and a one-score game lands on one of those.
ALSO
Ravens to win + No on Ravens by 4 or more
$1.16
The middle. Baltimore by 1 to 3 cashes both for $2.00. Anything else cashes one and loses 16¢.
SKIP
Ravens by 7 or more
40¢$10 → $25.00
A touchdown margin is the one finish a nail biter rules out.
My read
Both Baltimore games this year were decided by a touchdown or more. I would rather pay 53¢ for Dallas with the points than build a middle.
If you think
The teams combine for 54 or more
49%market chance
49% market chance · Over 53.5 costs 49¢. Over 58.5 is 36¢.
What has to happen
Baltimore keeps moving it: 434.5 yards a game, fourth in the league, on 10.0 yards a pass attempt.
Dallas keeps scoring: 20 and 37 so far, and a touchdown on 86% of its red-zone trips.
Neither pass rush gets home. Dallas has two sacks all year.
How to bet it
Contract
Price
Why
BEST
Over 53.5
49¢$10 → $20.41
Two offenses averaging 29 and 28.5 points get there with a field goal to spare.
ALSO
Cowboys over 24.5 points
49¢$10 → $20.41
If your track meet runs through Prescott, bet Dallas's points and let Baltimore's take care of themselves.
SKIP
Over 64.5
23¢$10 → $43.48
Needs both teams in the 30s, and Baltimore's defense gave up 24 to the Saints, not 34.
My read
The number is big and I still lean over. Dallas cannot stop anyone right now, and Baltimore does not need 40 throws to score 30.
If you think
Derrick Henry runs for 100 or more
42%market chance
42% market chance · Henry 100 or more rushing yards costs 42¢. Henry to score a touchdown is 67¢.
What has to happen
Baltimore plays with a lead and feeds him. He had 24 carries at Indianapolis and 16 against New Orleans.
He keeps averaging 5.3 a carry. His 212 yards are third in the league behind Bijan Robinson and Kenneth Walker III.
Dallas has to sell out for Jackson on the edge, and the inside runs go untouched to the second level.
How to bet it
Contract
Price
Why
BEST
Henry 100+ rushing yards
42¢$10 → $23.81
He got there on 24 carries at Indianapolis, and a Baltimore lead means 24 carries again.
ALSO
Henry anytime touchdown
67¢$10 → $14.93
Four touchdowns in two games, and Baltimore has scored a touchdown on two of every three red-zone trips.
SKIP
Henry 140+ rushing yards
16¢$10 → $62.50
Needs a second Indianapolis in three weeks against a front that held Washington to 5.7 a carry, not 6.
My read
If Baltimore wins big, this is how. Henry at 100 and the Ravens by 4 are close to the same bet, so pick one.
If you think
Prescott throws for 300 or more
31%market chance
31% market chance · Prescott 300 or more passing yards costs 31¢. 275 or more is 44¢.
What has to happen
Dallas throws because it cannot run: 67.5 rushing yards a game, 30th in the league, on 3.5 a carry.
Lamb and George Pickens both get loose. Lamb had 153 last week; Pickens caught 6 of 8 for 40.
Baltimore gets ahead and Dallas has to chase. Prescott needed 31 throws for 279 last week; a chase game means 40.
How to bet it
Contract
Price
Why
BEST
Prescott 300+ passing yards
31¢$10 → $32.26
Pays on a Cowboys loss too, and a Cowboys loss is the game where he throws 40 times.
ALSO
Lamb 100+ receiving yards
35¢$10 → $28.57
Same chase game, one player: he had 153 on nine targets last week.
SKIP
Prescott 350+ passing yards
11¢$10 → $90.91
He has not thrown for 300 yet this season.
My read
The chase game is real, and this is the one Dallas ticket that pays when the Cowboys lose. That is why I like it more than the moneyline.
Why Baltimore Is Favored On A Neutral Field
PriceWhat it says
Ravens to win
63¢
Baltimore is the favorite with Dallas as the listed home team.
Ravens by 4 or more
48¢
DraftKings has Baltimore -3.5.
Over 53.5
49¢
A coin flip at a shootout number.
Ravens win 1st half
55¢
Baltimore ahead at the break is the likelier half.
A road favorite usually pays for the trip. Here both teams make the same trip, so the price is mostly about the two rosters, and Baltimore's is healthier.
Ravens: The Best Offense On The Field
The Saints Game Was Baltimore Beating Itself
Baltimore put 41 on Indianapolis, then scored 17 at home and lost to the Saints, a game it turned over and took three sacks in. The offense is still first in yards per pass attempt.
Without Flowers, The Deep Shot Has Fewer Takers
Zay Flowers (hamstring) is inactive, and Ronnie Stanley (toe) is out. Rashod Bateman caught 7 of 9 for 88 and a touchdown against New Orleans, so the targets have somewhere to go, but the deep shot that makes this offense first in yards per attempt runs through Flowers.
Lean: Baltimore's floor is the run game, and the run game is fine.
Cowboys: Dak's Week, Then The Injury Report
Prescott Finishes Every Drive
Prescott threw four touchdowns on 31 attempts against Washington, and Dallas has scored on every red-zone trip this season. The offense is not the problem.
No Run Game, No Pass Rush
Dallas averages 3.5 a carry, and the defense has two sacks this season and no interceptions. The Cowboys have held the ball 25:55 a game, 31st in the league.
Three Defensive Backs Out Against The League's Best Pass Offense
P.J. Locke (foot), Cobie Durant (hamstring) and Malik Hooker (forearm) are ruled out, and linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) is not making the trip. Markquese Bell starts at safety.
Lean: Dallas keeps up for a half and runs out of defenders.
My Take
Ravens By 4 Or MoreRavens by 4 or more at 48¢half a unit, Flowers is inactivesettles Sunday night
The neutral field takes away the one thing Dallas had going: its building. The Cowboys lose the crowd and keep the injury report. Baltimore's offense is fourth in yards and first in yards per pass attempt, and it gets a secondary missing Locke, Durant and Hooker. Henry gives it a way to finish drives and kill the clock that Dallas, at 3.5 a carry, does not have.
The Saints game is why this is one unit and not two.
Ravens by 4 or more at 48¢. Half a unit: Flowers is inactive, so the sizing clause fires and the call stands at the smaller size.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
