Rams at Broncos · Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET · NBC
Rams vs Broncos Prediction: Stafford Doesn't Need Nacua
By Jake Hari
September 25, 2026
Prices as of Friday, September 25, 2026, 6:58 a.m. ET. Kalshi prices, before fees.
Puka Nacua sat Monday night too, and Matthew Stafford threw four touchdowns without him. That is the fact under this price: Nacua is questionable again with a hip injury that kept him out of practice Thursday, and the market still makes the Rams a 2.5-point favorite at Mile High, where Denver went 8-1 last regular season.
Both teams lost a conference title game in January, and both are 1-1. The Rams beat the Giants 28-6 on Monday night; the Broncos beat Jacksonville 20-13.
Pick the Sunday night you see. Each script shows the price the market puts on it, what has to happen, and the contract I'd buy if that's your game. My own call is at the bottom.
Pick Your Script
Script: Rams cover · Los Angeles wins by 3 or more
50% market chance · Rams by 3 or more costs 50¢. Rams by 4 or more is 41¢.
What has to happen
- Stafford keeps finding Davante Adams. Eight catches, 195 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants, with Nacua out.
- The Rams run it the way they have all month: 142.5 rushing yards a game at 5.0 a carry, Kyren Williams (85 yards Monday) and Blake Corum (79) splitting it.
- Denver's offense stalls on third down again. It has converted 26% this season, and you can't keep pace with a 390-yard offense from the sideline.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Rams by 3 or more | 50¢ | Matches the book spread and cashes on any Rams win by a field goal or more. |
| Also | Rams to win | 56¢ | Six cents more covers a Rams win by 1 or 2, the two results where the spread loses and the team still wins. |
| Skip | Rams by 7 or more | 34¢ | Your case is that the better offense wins, not that it wins by a touchdown at altitude. Don't pay for a margin you didn't argue. |
My readThe Rams' offense is the best unit on the field, and Denver's has scored 30 points in two games. The building is the other side of that argument, and it's a real one.
Script: Mile High holds · Denver wins outright
46% market chance · Denver to win costs 46¢. Denver +2.5, the No side of the Rams spread contract, is 51¢.
What has to happen
- Bo Nix plays the game he played Sunday, not the one in Kansas City: 22 of 31 for 288 yards against Jacksonville, after 17 of 28 for 131 and four sacks at Arrowhead.
- Jaylen Waddle keeps going. Eight catches for 138 yards against the Jaguars, after one catch for 2 yards in the opener.
- The pass rush that got to Nix in Kansas City gets to Stafford. Zach Allen had two sacks that night. Stafford has been sacked once all season.
- The Rams' first true road game (Melbourne counted as a home game) is at altitude, at night, in front of a crowd that saw one regular-season loss all of last year.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Denver to win | 46¢ | Pays on any Broncos win, and you're never asked to say by how much. |
| Also | Denver +2.5 | 51¢ | Five cents more adds a Rams win by 1 or 2 to the results that pay you. Worth it if your Denver case is "close game, either way." |
| Skip | Denver by 4 or more | 33¢ | Denver has scored 10 and 20 this season. A four-point win asks that offense to outscore the Rams by more than a field goal. |
My readThe defense is good enough to win this, and it's the only Denver unit I'd say that about. If it happens, it's 20-17, not 27-24.
Script: Nail-biter · Decided by 3 points or fewer
28% market chance · No single contract, so this is two added together: Rams by 1 to 3 is 15% (Rams to win at 56¢ minus Rams by 4 or more at 41¢), Denver by 1 to 3 is 13% (46¢ minus 33¢).
What has to happen
- Both defenses play like last week: the Rams gave up 6 to the Giants, Denver gave up 13 to Jacksonville.
- Denver's two January home games finished 33-30 and 10-7.
- It comes down to a kick. Wil Lutz made both his field goals Sunday. Harrison Mevis missed his only try Monday.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Denver +2.5 | 51¢ | Cashes on every Denver win and on a Rams win by 1 or 2. The only close finish it misses is the Rams by exactly 3. |
| Also | Rams to win + Denver +2.5 | $1.07 | The middle. A Rams win by 1 or 2 pays both sides, $2.00 on $1.07. Any other result pays one side and costs you 7¢. |
| Skip | Rams by 7 or more | 34¢ | A one-score game and a seven-point margin can't both happen. Pick one. |
My readClose is the Broncos' best path, so if you're on Denver, take the points rather than the moneyline. The 5¢ buys the two most likely Rams wins that still pay you.
Script: Rams run away · Los Angeles wins by 7 or more
34% market chance · Rams by 7 or more costs 34¢. Rams by 10 or more is 25¢, by 14 or more 18¢.
What has to happen
- The Monday night Rams show up: 28 points, 327 passing yards, four Stafford touchdowns, 390 yards a game on the season.
- Denver's offense looks like it did in Kansas City: 10 points, 131 passing yards, four sacks taken.
- Nacua plays, or Adams does it again without him.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Rams by 7 or more | 34¢ | Nearly triples your money if the Monday night Rams show up in Denver. |
| Also | Rams by 3 or more | 50¢ | Pays less, and still pays if a 14-point lead shrinks to four in garbage time. |
| Skip | Rams to win | 56¢ | A rout and a one-point win pay the same here. If you see a rout, the margin contracts pay you for it. |
My readDenver's defense has allowed 31 and 13, and the 31 came against the best offense it will see all year. Whatever the Rams' moneyline does, a touchdown margin has to go through that defense at home, and I don't see it.
Script: Slog · The teams combine for 45 or fewer
55% market chance · Under 45.5 costs 55¢, the No side of Over 45.5. Under 42.5 is 44¢.
What has to happen
- Denver keeps scoring like it has: 10 and 20, 15.0 a game, 3.8 yards a carry, 26% on third down.
- The Rams' run game eats the clock. Williams and Corum have 164 yards on 24 carries in the last game alone.
- The Rams' defense looks like the Giants game (6 points allowed), not the 49ers game (27).
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Under 45.5 | 55¢ | All four games these teams have played landed between 33 and 41 total points. The number sits above every one of them. |
| Also | Denver under 20.5 | 47¢ | If the slow game is Denver's offense stalling, price that directly. The Broncos have not reached 21 this season. |
| Skip | Under 39.5 | 34¢ | Needs both offenses stuck for four quarters, and the Rams scored 28 six days earlier. |
My readThe under is the second-best bet on the page. The only thing keeping me off it is that the Rams have shown they can put up 28 on a night the other team scores 6.
Script: Adams again · Davante Adams goes for 80 or more
46% market chance · Adams 80 or more receiving yards costs 46¢. 100 or more is 29¢.
What has to happen
- Nacua sits or plays hurt. He was out Monday, and Adams turned 10 targets into 195 yards and two scores. There is no Nacua receiving contract on the board.
- Stafford throws it 30 times again. He is 37 of 56 for 482 yards in two games, 327 of them Monday.
- Denver's pass rush doesn't get home. One sack allowed all season.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | Adams 80 or more | 46¢ | Eighty is what a lead receiver gets on a normal Stafford night, and Adams is the lead receiver until Nacua is cleared. |
| Also | Adams anytime touchdown | 45¢ | Two scores Monday. Same price within a cent, and it pays on one catch instead of a yardage total. |
| Skip | Adams 100 or more | 29¢ | 195 was the outlier, not the baseline. Buy the 80. |
My readIf Nacua is ruled out Saturday, this price moves. Buy it before the inactives, not after.
Why The Road Team Is Favored At Mile High
A 14-3 team getting points at home tells you how far apart the market puts these two offenses right now.
Los Angeles Rams: Two Games, Two Different Teams
Melbourne Was The Outlier
The opener was a home game in Melbourne, 27-7 to the 49ers, and Stafford finished with 155 yards and no touchdowns.
Stafford Already Won Without Nacua
Stafford threw four touchdowns and Adams went for 195 yards in the 28-6 win over the Giants on Monday night. Nacua watched from the sideline, and the run game averaged more than 6 a carry without anyone noticing he was gone.
The Questionable List Is Long
Nacua (hip) did not practice Thursday. Tight end Colby Parkinson (knee) and receiver Jordan Whittington (quadriceps) are questionable too, and Myles Garrett is on injured reserve. Sunday is the Rams' first true road game of the season.
Lean: the Monday version travels. Stafford threw for 327 with this receiver group and without Nacua.
Denver Broncos: The Defense Is Still Here
The Offense Has 30 Points In Two Games
Nix threw for 131 yards at Kansas City and 288 against Jacksonville. The offense has scored 30 points in two games and converted 26% of its third downs.
The Defense Held Jacksonville To 13
Zach Allen had two sacks in Kansas City, and last Sunday the defense held the Jaguars to 13, with Jaylen Waddle's 138 receiving yards the only offense Denver needed.
Mile High Was 8-1 Last Year
Denver went 8-1 at home last regular season, and the one loss was to Jacksonville, the team it just beat. Marvin Mims Jr. (foot) and Jonah Coleman (ankle) are questionable; RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins practiced in full.
Lean: the defense keeps it inside a touchdown. The offense has not shown it can win a game the Rams score 24 in.
My Take
Denver's case is the building and the defense, and both are real. The market has decided Denver's offense, 30 points in two games, cannot keep up with what the Rams showed Monday. I agree.
Without the Nacua question this is probably Rams -3.5. The Rams already played a game without him: Stafford threw for 327 and four scores, Adams went for 195, and the run game averaged more than 6 a carry. Denver's defense will keep this closer than the Giants did, and the Rams still win by a touchdown. Rams 27, Broncos 20, and the spread at 50¢ is the bet.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
More on this: Denver Can't Keep Up: Rams vs Broncos Sunday Night Picks · Kalshi NFL Prop Picks Sunday: Montgomery Is A Steal · NFL Win Projections 2026: Chicago Lost The Most Wins
Stokastic NFL Props: every prop on every game, priced against the projections. Code PROPPICKS20 takes 20% off your first payment.
Use code PROPPICKS20
Get Started