Falcons vs Saints First TD Scorer on MNF: Bijan Leads
By Jake Hari
October 4, 2026
The first touchdown scorer on Monday Night Football is a long-shot market, but the Falcons vs Saints board has one clear favorite. Atlanta's lead back scores first more often than anyone in the sims, and it isn't close. The interesting part is the Saints side, where a receiver beats the running back.
I typed the questions into Ask the Sims in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator and it counted the answers across 10,000 simulated games.
Monday in the Superdome
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-2) Monday, October 5 · 8:15 p.m. ET · Caesars Superdome · ESPN Stokastic Sims: Saints win 52%
Noah Fant is questionable for New Orleans. He's a deep name on this board either way.
Monday Night Football First Touchdown Scorer
Bijan Robinson scores the first touchdown in 19.4% of the sims, almost double anyone else.
YES on Bijan Robinson: 1st Touchdown trades at 18¢ (+456) on Kalshi, so the sims run a bit hotter than the price.
That fits the outside picture. Per ESPN and Yahoo Sports, Bijan averages 145.4 scrimmage yards per game across 11 career prime-time games, the highest mark by any player since the merger.
Yahoo Sports also has the Saints' run defense ranked 27th.
Sims Above the Price
| Player | Team | Sims 1st TD | Kalshi YES |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 19.4% | 18¢ (+456) |
| Chris Olave | NO | 10.7% | 9¢ (+1011) |
| Drake London | ATL | 9.5% | 9¢ (+1011) |
| Kendre Miller | NO | 6.8% | 6¢ (+1567) |
| Brian Robinson | ATL | 5.3% | 5¢ (+1900) |
Chris Olave is my favorite long shot. He's the top Saints name in the sims, ahead of Alvin Kamara, and topped 100 receiving yards last week (per Yahoo Sports).
The odds in that card are the sims' fair price, not the Kalshi price. Kendre Miller is the cheaper Saints back, and Brian Robinson is a second way into Atlanta's run game.
The Rest of the Board
| Player | Team | Sims 1st TD | Kalshi YES |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | NO | 10.2% | 11¢ (+809) |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | 5.7% | 7¢ (+1329) |
| Devaughn Vele | NO | 5.6% | 6¢ (+1567) |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | 3.0% | 4¢ (+2400) |
| Tyler Shough | NO | 2.8% | 6¢ (+1567) |
| Jahan Dotson | ATL | 2.4% | 4¢ (+2400) |
| Noah Fant | NO | 2.4% | 3¢ (+3233) |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 0.9% | 3¢ (+3233) |
Pitts trades under the contract name "Kyle Pitts Sr."
Shough is the fun one. Per ESPN and Yahoo Sports, he's accounted for multiple offensive touchdowns in each of his past five games. A passing score goes to the catcher, though.
YES on No Touchdown trades at 1¢ (+9900).
The sims have a game with no touchdown at all in just 0.2% of runs, so somebody scores.
Ask It Yourself
- Open the Falcons vs Saints game in the simulator.
- Find the Ask the Sims box under the controls.
- Type a question in plain English and hit Ask.
- Read the Sims Result line, the share of all 10,000 sims.
Questions you can copy:
- Who scores the first TD?
- How often does Bijan Robinson score the first TD?
- How often does Kendre Miller score the first TD?
To pair Bijan with a result, see my Falcons vs Saints same game parlay. My score pick is in the Falcons vs Saints prediction.
My order: Bijan first, Olave as the long shot, Kendre Miller as the deep one. Prices are from Sunday night, October 4, and move until kickoff. The simulator is free, so ask it your own first TD question before Monday.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
Ask the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator who scores the first Falcons-Saints touchdown and it counts the answer across 10,000 simulated games.
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