Falcons vs Saints Prediction: Saints 27-24 in a Coin Flip

Atlanta and New Orleans both limp into Monday night with losing records. The sims can't separate them by much. So I wanted to see how each version of this game plays out.

My Falcons vs Saints prediction comes from 10,000 Stokastic Sims, tested in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator. Prices are from Sunday night, October 4, and they'll move until kickoff.

Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-2) Monday, October 5 · 8:15 p.m. ET · Caesars Superdome · ESPN Stokastic Sims: Saints win 52%

Noah Fant is questionable for New Orleans.

Saints by a Field Goal

The most common final in the sims is Saints 27, Falcons 24.

Blowouts Beat Nail-Biters

A coin flip isn't a close game. More than half the sims end with somebody winning by 8 or more.

Points come easy too: 56 or more is the biggest total bucket.

My Falcons vs Saints Prediction

I'm taking Saints 27, Falcons 24. It's the top score in the sims.

Tyler Shough is why. Per ESPN and Yahoo Sports, he's accounted for multiple offensive touchdowns in each of his past five games, the NFL's longest active streak.

Atlanta's path is Bijan against the Saints' run defense, ranked 27th per Yahoo Sports.

Type In a Score

Pick Your Game Script shows what else tends to happen in any final score you set.

1. Open the Falcons vs Saints game.
2. Set the score with the plus and minus buttons.
3. Read the three combo cards. Sims Price counts all 10,000 sims. Current Script counts the sims that look like your score.

For a straight answer, try these in the Ask the Sims box:

• "How often do the Saints win by exactly 3?"
• "How often do the Falcons score 27 or more?"
• "How often do both teams score 24 or more?"

Falcons Run Away

An Atlanta blowout runs through Bijan: YES on Bijan Robinson 70+ Rushing Yards, with NO on Kendre Miller 30+ Rushing Yards.

Saints Pull Away

Flip to a Saints win and Bijan's night flips too: NO on Bijan Robinson 100+ Rushing Yards, plus YES on Over 42.5 Total Points.

One-Score Shootout

A one-point Falcons win is a Shough game. He throws for 225+, the game goes over, and Atlanta still wins it late.

Pick Versus Price

A score pick and a price answer different questions. The Saints win a few more sims, so they get my pick. When Atlanta wins, it usually wins big, and the sims put those Falcons margins above their Kalshi prices. Plenty of sims turn into shootouts, so the overs do too.

Play Your Own Script

The simulator is free, so set your own final in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator before kickoff. For a finished ticket, see my Falcons vs Saints same game parlay, and for scorers, the Falcons vs Saints anytime TD picks.

Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.