Buccaneers vs Cowboys First TD Scorer: Bucky Irving at +1074 Is the Bet
By Jake Hari
October 6, 2026
Prices as of 3:32 p.m. ET Tuesday, Oct. 6, taker fee included. Baker Mayfield is out (dislocated right thumb), so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts for Tampa Bay. Also out: Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (ribs). Doubtful: Cowboys linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and cornerback Cobie Durant (hamstrings).
Tampa Bay is 0-4 and heads to Dallas with an undrafted rookie at quarterback. Jalon Daniels completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions in his first start against Green Bay, per NFL.com, and Mayfield is out at least three weeks.
Dallas is 2-2 and gets the Bucs at home on Prime Video. Javonte Williams is the name everyone will bet to score first, and he's the most expensive one on the board.
The better first-scorer ticket is Bucky Irving at 8.5¢, the back a Bucs offense with a rookie quarterback leans on.
Bucky Irving Scores First
Bucky Irving: 1st Touchdown · 8.5¢ (+1074) on Kalshi. The Sims have it at 10.9%.
What has to happen
- Tampa Bay scores first, and with a rookie quarterback the Bucs lean on the run inside the 10.
- Irving gets the goal-line work. He averages 13.7 carries a game in the Sims, far ahead of any other Bucs back.
- Dallas doesn't open with a quick score; Williams (18.1%) and CeeDee Lamb (13.6%) are the only names above Irving on the Sims' first-scorer list.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | Bucky Irving: 1st Touchdown | 8.5¢ (+1074) | 10.9% in the Sims, good value |
| ALSO | Tyler Goodson: 1st Touchdown | 3.2¢ (+3021) | 4.3% in the Sims, a small longshot |
| SKIP | Javonte Williams: 1st Touchdown | 23.2¢ (+331) | 18.1% in the Sims, negative value |
My readIrving is the third-likeliest first scorer in the Sims and the cheapest of the top four. With Daniels making his second start, Tampa Bay's best path to the first score runs through its lead back.
Irving 2+ TDs at +1464
Bucky Irving scores 2+ TDs · 6.4¢ (+1464) on Kalshi. The Sims have it at 9.9%.
What has to happen
- Irving handles the bulk of Tampa Bay's carries, as he does in the Sims.
- The Bucs reach the red zone at least twice; Daniels threw two interceptions in his first start, so drives that stall short of it cost Irving chances.
- Tampa Bay keeps the game close enough to keep running in the second half.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | Bucky Irving scores 2+ TDs | 6.4¢ (+1464) | 9.9% in the Sims, good value |
| ALSO | Bucky Irving scores a TD | 34.5¢ (+189) | 41.9% in the Sims, good value |
| SKIP | Bucky Irving doesn't score | 69.5¢ (-228) | 58.1% in the Sims, negative value |
My readIf Irving is the back getting the goal-line carries, the two-touchdown game is the bigger payout. He gets there in 9.9% of the Sims, and at 6.4¢ the price is well short of that.
Javonte Costs Too Much
Javonte Williams scores a TD · 67.6¢ (-208) on Kalshi. The Sims have it at 62.0%.
What has to happen
- Dallas scores on the ground, but not always through Williams. Tyler Goodson averages 6.4 carries a game in the Sims as the second back.
- Goodson gets a short-yardage carry or two; he scores in 23.2% of the Sims.
- Williams still scores in most Sims (62.0%), but not as often as his price says.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | Tyler Goodson scores a TD | 12.7¢ (+685) | 23.2% in the Sims, good value |
| ALSO | NO on Javonte Williams scores a TD | 36.6¢ (+173) | 38.0% in the Sims, good value |
| SKIP | Javonte Williams scores a TD | 67.6¢ (-208) | 62.0% in the Sims, negative value |
My readI'm not betting against the Dallas run game. I'm betting that it's shared. Goodson at 12.7¢ is the cheap Dallas touchdown. If you'd rather have a receiver, YES on CeeDee Lamb scores a TD at 49.7¢ (+101) is fair value; he scores in 51.0% of the Sims.
Bet Ferguson's NO
NO on Jake Ferguson scores a TD · 73.4¢ (-276) on Kalshi. The Sims have it at 82.4%.
What has to happen
- Lamb and George Pickens take the end-zone targets; Ferguson averages 4.3 targets a game in the Sims.
- Ferguson stays out of the end zone, as he does in 82.4% of the Sims.
- The YES side costs 30.4¢ (+229) for a 17.6% chance, so the NO is the side to take.
How to bet it
| Contract | Price | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | NO on Jake Ferguson scores a TD | 73.4¢ (-276) | 82.4% in the Sims, good value |
| ALSO | NO on Dak Prescott scores a TD | 86.8¢ (-660) | 91.7% in the Sims, good value |
| SKIP | Jake Ferguson: 1st Touchdown | 7.5¢ (+1241) | 3.7% in the Sims, negative value |
My readA NO side pays less, but this one is priced well below how often it wins. The Cowboys' red-zone targets go to Lamb and Pickens first.
My Take
Buy YES on Bucky Irving: 1st Touchdown at 8.5¢ (+1074). 8.5¢ needs 8.5%; the Sims have 10.9%, and Tampa Bay leans on him with Mayfield out. The second-best bet is NO on Jake Ferguson scores a TD at 73.4¢ (-276), which wins in 82.4% of the Sims.
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Hero illustration: comic drawing on an Action background. Prices: Kalshi, Oct. 6, 2026.
More on this: Buccaneers vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay: Dak Under 275 in a +312 Ticket · Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction: Dak Under 2 TD Passes at +181
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