49ers vs. Seahawks, Ravens vs. Falcons Props: Penix Won't Need 225

Michael Penix Jr. under 225 passing yards is my bet for Sunday night: 56.7¢ (-131) on Kalshi, and he stays under in 62.9% of our Sims. Lamar Jackson is out, Tyler Huntley starts, and Atlanta gets to play the way it did in both Penix wins: run the ball and keep his throws in the 20s.

For the 4:25 game, Seattle's defense is the bet: Brock Purdy under 225 passing yards and Mike Evans under 50 receiving yards, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score on the Seahawks' side.

The Sims are 10,000 runs of each game, made Friday morning, Oct. 9, with Huntley already at quarterback. Kalshi prices are from Saturday morning, Oct. 10, fee included. Zay Flowers and George Holani are questionable and in the Sims, so neither is a bet here; if Flowers sits, the Penix and London unders get better. The Sims also have 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk playing, and he's out, which helps the Purdy and Evans unders. Nick Bosa was ruled out Friday night, after the Sims ran.

Atlanta Runs, Penix Stays Under

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Penix has two starts this season, and both went the same way. Atlanta ran it 40-plus times at Green Bay and 35 at New Orleans, won both by three scores, and never needed more than 25 throws from him.

He still went over 225 at Green Bay, because Drake London took one 68 yards. He finished two yards short of it in New Orleans. So this isn't about Penix playing badly. It's about how little the Falcons need from him.

That's why Huntley matters. Baltimore without Lamar is far less likely to score enough to drag Atlanta into a shootout, and Kevin Stefanski can keep handing it to Bijan Robinson. Even with the extra throws the Sims give him, Penix lands a little over 200. I'd buy NO on Penix 225+ up to 62¢.

Huntley Means More Henry

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With Huntley starting, Baltimore's cleanest plan is to keep handing Derrick Henry the ball until Atlanta forces it to stop. He got 21 or more carries in all three Ravens wins and 16 in the loss.

Atlanta hasn't let any team run for 70 yards in a game, which is why I'm betting his carries and not his yards. A carries bet pays whether he gains two yards a try or six. It also covers the other way Sunday night can go: if Baltimore hangs around into the fourth quarter, Henry is the one getting the ball. At +134, it's priced cheaper than his real chance.

Fewer Throws, Fewer London Catches

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London's catches follow Penix's attempts. His big game came on 25 throws at Green Bay; on 20 at New Orleans, he caught five.

At plus money on what the Sims call a coin flip, it's worth a ticket, but a smaller one than the Penix under, since one busy half from London can beat it.

Seattle Grounds Purdy

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Purdy is playing as well as any quarterback in the league. He's thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception, and he hasn't been sacked.

Seattle is the defense that has had his number. No opponent has passed for more than 176 net yards against the Seahawks this season, and in two meetings last January, the 49ers didn't score a touchdown. With Juszczyk out, Kyle Shanahan also loses the two-back looks his offense leans on.

Bosa being out is why I'm not sizing this up. If Seattle moves the ball better without him, San Francisco has to throw more. I'd still buy NO on Purdy 225+ up to 55¢.

Evans Splits It Three Ways

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Evans leads the 49ers in catches, but the yards are split almost evenly between him, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. That's how he's been under 50 in two of his four games.

Against a defense that hasn't allowed 180 net passing yards in a game, a three-way split doesn't leave much for any one receiver. The Sims have Evans in the 40s, and the bet pays at almost even money.

Smith-Njigba Scores

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If the Seahawks win a low-scoring game at home, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the likeliest reason. He has six touchdown catches already and has scored in three of four games.

This is the smallest edge on the page, so keep it small. I still want the Seattle touchdown at nearly even money.

The Bets

• Buy NO on Michael Penix Jr. 225+ passing yards at 56.7¢ (-131) on Kalshi. Without Lamar, Atlanta stays run-first and Penix doesn't have to throw much.
• Buy YES on Derrick Henry 21+ rushing attempts at 42.7¢ (+134). With Huntley starting, Baltimore runs Henry for as long as the score allows.
• Small: buy NO on Drake London 6+ receptions at 44.7¢ (+124). Same script as the Penix under.
• Buy NO on Brock Purdy 225+ passing yards at 50.7¢ (-103). No one has passed for more than 176 net yards on Seattle.
• Buy NO on Mike Evans 50+ receiving yards at 51.8¢ (-107). Three receivers split a small pie.
• Small: buy YES on Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score at 50.7¢ (-103). If Seattle wins, he's probably why.

Inactives come out 90 minutes before each kickoff. Want a different question, like how Penix does if the Ravens win? Ask The Sims about Ravens vs. Falcons or 49ers vs. Seahawks.