JK Dobbins Props: The Carries Are Priced Too High

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Denver and Seattle are both 3-2, and the Season Engine separates them by half a win: 10.5 projected for Seattle, 10.0 for Denver. The Sims give Seattle the game in 57.8% of runs and Kalshi charges 58.7 cents for it. When the market and the model agree on a game that closely, the prop board underneath it is hard to beat, and Dobbins is a clean example.

JK Dobbins Props: Rushing Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Dobbins game in these simulations is 47; the average is 51.2 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 20 to 87, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 198. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Dobbins Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

His rushing ladder tells the same story one rung at a time. Forty yards is 62.2% in the simulations against 63.6 cents, 60 is 33.4 against 36.6, and 80 is 14.6 against 19.0. The gap widens as the number climbs, which is what a board looks like when the market expects a bigger share of the backfield than the model hands out.

JK Dobbins Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. Scores a TD and 40+ rushing yards land together in 2,454 of the 10,000 runs, which is 24.5%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 22.6%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs in the buyer's favor here: the same script that produces one leg tends to produce the other. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

JK Dobbins Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 30.9% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 35.6 cents, a gap of -4.8.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

Nothing on this board clears two cents in the buyer's direction. The widest numbers are all fades and they point at one thing: a workload the market has priced ahead of the Sims.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

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