NFL Win Projections 2026: Chicago Lost The Most Wins
By Jake Hari
September 3, 2026 · Updated September 22, 2026
Which NFL teams are projected to win the most games in 2026? Buffalo, alone: after beating Detroit the Bills are the only team Kalshi's win-total board has at 12 wins, with six teams packed within a win behind them. The week's story is at the other end. One home loss to Minnesota cost Chicago 2.2 expected wins, more than any team has lost in a week all season, and the drop is not about one bad Sunday. Caleb Williams is listed doubtful for Monday night against Philadelphia, and the board is now pricing a stretch of Bears football without him. The full 32-team board, repriced Tuesday morning, is below, with every Week 2 result graded and the Week 3 games where the game price and the season board disagree.
The Market Re-Rated Three Teams In One Weekend
Chicago went into the weekend as the 10th team on the board and came out 18th. A home loss to a division rival costs any team a few tenths; the rest of the 2.2 that came off the Bears' ladder is the quarterback. With Williams listed doubtful, the board is no longer pricing the offense that scored 59 in the opener, and the ladder now sits at 8.0, a losing record over a full season. Minnesota, a win below Chicago a week ago, is now two wins above it.
The Chargers got the same treatment for a different reason. Two home losses in two weeks, to Arizona and then to Las Vegas, took Los Angeles from a ten-win price in August to 6.2, and the price already assumes more losses.
Baltimore's drop is the smallest of the three and the most telling. A home loss to New Orleans without Zay Flowers moved the Ravens from the top of the board to seventh, and the message in that move is that the top is a pack, not a king. Six teams gained for winning, and one win covers all of them.
Week 3: Three Games To Read Against The Ladders
The favorite on Kalshi in all 16 Week 3 games is in the table below. Three of them are worth reading against the season ladders.
The Rams travel to Denver on Sunday night with a season ladder a win and a half above the Broncos', and they trade at 54.5 on Kalshi, a coin flip on the road. That is the market saying Denver's home field is worth most of the gap, and the AI panel goes further: on the AI NFL predictions page six models have the Broncos as a clear home favorite.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay is the same story. The board has the Vikings three wins better than a Buccaneers team that just lost at home to Cleveland, and the game trades at 53.5 because Tampa is at home.
Kansas City at Miami is where the game price and the board say the same thing loudly: the widest gap on the board and the week's heaviest price, 86.5.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Kalshi favorite | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Packers | Thu 8:15 p.m. | Packers | 71.5¢ |
| Panthers at Browns | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Panthers | 59.5¢ |
| Bengals at Steelers | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Bengals | 63.5¢ |
| Texans at Colts | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Texans | 58.5¢ |
| Chiefs at Dolphins | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Chiefs | 86.5¢ |
| Chargers at Bills | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Bills | 74.5¢ |
| Patriots at Jaguars | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Jaguars | 58.5¢ |
| Jets at Lions | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Lions | 73.5¢ |
| Seahawks at Commanders | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Seahawks | 73.5¢ |
| Titans at Giants | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Giants | 62.5¢ |
| Cardinals at 49ers | Sun 4:05 p.m. | 49ers | 78.5¢ |
| Vikings at Buccaneers | Sun 4:05 p.m. | Vikings | 53.5¢ |
| Ravens at Cowboys | Sun 4:25 p.m. | Ravens | 59.5¢ |
| Raiders at Saints | Sun 4:25 p.m. | Saints | 62.5¢ |
| Rams at Broncos | Sun 8:20 p.m. | Rams | 54.5¢ |
| Eagles at Bears | Mon 8:15 p.m. | Eagles | 63.5¢ |
Kalshi midpoints as of Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 6:50 a.m. ET. These are market estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Board
Expected wins is the sum of a team's win-threshold contract midpoints on Kalshi, fetched Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 6:50 a.m. ET, with the rungs already settled counted at their settled value. The change column is the move since Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 12:29 a.m. ET, and the last column is how Week 2 went.
| Team | Expected wins | Since Sept. 16 | Week 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 12.0 | +0.6 | W vs. DET |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 | +0.6 | W at HOU |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.4 | +0.5 | W vs. MIA |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11.4 | +0.5 | W at ARI |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.2 | +0.4 | W vs. IND |
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.0 | +0.5 | W vs. NYG |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.8 | -0.8 | L vs. NO |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.7 | +0.4 | W at TEN |
| Detroit Lions | 10.4 | -0.4 | L at BUF |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.2 | +1.2 | W at CHI |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.9 | +0.0 | L at DEN |
| New England Patriots | 9.6 | +0.4 | W vs. PIT |
| Denver Broncos | 9.4 | +0.0 | W vs. JAX |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.1 | -0.2 | W at NYJ |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.0 | +0.3 | W vs. WSH |
| Houston Texans | 9.0 | -0.8 | L vs. CIN |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.7 | +1.1 | W at BAL |
| Chicago Bears | 8.0 | -2.2 | L vs. MIN |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.7 | +1.0 | W at ATL |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.7 | +1.1 | W at LAC |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7.6 | -0.2 | L at KC |
| New York Giants | 7.6 | -1.1 | L at LAR |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.4 | -1.6 | L at NE |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7.1 | -1.1 | L vs. CLE |
| New York Jets | 6.8 | +0.1 | L vs. GB |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 6.2 | -2.1 | L vs. LV |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.1 | +0.3 | L vs. SEA |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.9 | +1.3 | W at TB |
| Atlanta Falcons | 5.5 | -0.7 | L vs. CAR |
| Washington Commanders | 5.4 | -1.5 | L at DAL |
| Tennessee Titans | 4.3 | -0.6 | L vs. PHI |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.0 | -0.4 | L at SF |
Week 2, Graded
The board as a forecaster: expected wins from the September 16 read beside the result, and one question per row: did the higher team win? It went 11-5 in Week 2 and 10-5 with a dead heat in Week 1. Four of the five misses were road teams beating a home team the board liked, Minnesota at Chicago, Cleveland at Tampa Bay, New Orleans at Baltimore and Las Vegas at the Chargers; the fifth was Denver holding off a Jacksonville team the board had half a win higher. Home field is not in these ladders, and two weeks say it should be read alongside them.
| Game (expected wins) | Final | Higher won |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions (10.8) at Buffalo Bills (11.4) | DET 31, BUF 41 | Yes |
| Carolina Panthers (6.7) at Atlanta Falcons (6.2) | CAR 34, ATL 3 | Yes |
| Minnesota Vikings (9.0) at Chicago Bears (10.2) | MIN 9, CHI 3 | No |
| Philadelphia Eagles (10.3) at Tennessee Titans (4.9) | PHI 24, TEN 20 | Yes |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (9.0) at New England Patriots (9.2) | PIT 3, NE 20 | Yes |
| Green Bay Packers (9.3) at New York Jets (6.7) | GB 20, NYJ 17 | Yes |
| Cleveland Browns (4.6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.2) | CLE 23, TB 19 | No |
| New Orleans Saints (7.6) at Baltimore Ravens (11.6) | NO 24, BAL 17 | No |
| Cincinnati Bengals (10.9) at Houston Texans (9.8) | CIN 20, HOU 6 | Yes |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (9.9) at Denver Broncos (9.4) | JAX 13, DEN 20 | No |
| Las Vegas Raiders (6.6) at Los Angeles Chargers (8.3) | LV 26, LAC 14 | No |
| Washington Commanders (6.9) at Dallas Cowboys (8.7) | WSH 20, DAL 37 | Yes |
| Seattle Seahawks (10.9) at Arizona Cardinals (5.8) | SEA 31, ARI 7 | Yes |
| Miami Dolphins (3.4) at San Francisco 49ers (10.9) | MIA 13, SF 35 | Yes |
| Indianapolis Colts (7.8) at Kansas City Chiefs (10.8) | IND 30, KC 33 | Yes |
| New York Giants (8.7) at Los Angeles Rams (10.5) | NYG 6, LAR 28 | Yes |
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