NFL Win Projections 2026: Chicago Got Its Wins Back
By Jake Hari
September 3, 2026 · Updated October 6, 2026
Which NFL teams are projected to win the most games in 2026? Nobody alone anymore. Buffalo lost at home to New England and gave up the lead it held by itself for two weeks, so the top of Kalshi's win-total board is a three-way tie at 11.7 expected wins: Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco. The week's story is Chicago. Two weeks ago one home loss to Minnesota took 2.2 expected wins off the Bears while the board priced a stretch without Caleb Williams. Williams is still listed Out, Chicago beat the Jets 23-12 anyway, and the board gave 2.1 of those wins back. The market has decided the Bears are not a one-player team. The full 32-team board, repriced Tuesday morning, is below, with the Week 5 games read against it.
The Market Gave Chicago Back What It Took
Chicago went into Week 3 as the 10th team on the board, fell to 18th on the Williams news, and is ninth this morning at 10.1 expected wins. The ladder moved 2.1 on a 23-12 home win over a Jets team priced for six wins, which says the move is about the quarterback, not the opponent: the board had priced the offense as a Williams-or-nothing proposition, and a comfortable win without him told it otherwise.
Atlanta made the biggest move of the week, 2.3 expected wins, for scoring 45 in New Orleans in a game the board had the Saints winning. Cleveland added 1.8 for beating Pittsburgh 27-24 at home with Dillon Gabriel on injured reserve. Those three moves share a shape: a team the board had written down after an early stumble won a game it was not supposed to, and the ladder repriced the whole season, not just the week.
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The cuts are quarterback stories too. Tampa Bay lost 1.7 expected wins for a 17-14 home loss to Green Bay, and the price is looking past Sunday: Baker Mayfield is listed Out, and the Buccaneers play Thursday night in Dallas. Cincinnati lost 1.5 for a home loss to Jacksonville with both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins listed questionable, and fell from second on the board to tenth. Philadelphia lost 1.4 for the Rams loss with DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Hollywood Brown all out and Saquon Barkley questionable. Every one of those ladders can come back the way Chicago's did; the board moved on the names on the injury report, and it will move again when they return.
Week 5: Four Games To Read Against The Ladders
The Kalshi favorite in every Week 5 game is in the table below. Four of them disagree with the season ladders, and those are the games worth a second look.
Buccaneers at Cowboys on Thursday night is the widest gap on the board and the week's heaviest price. Dallas sits at 9.6 expected wins, Tampa Bay at 5.4, and with Mayfield out the Cowboys trade at 79.5. The Stokastic Sims run this game 10,000 times once Thursday's file lands, and the simulator above prices every Thursday combo against that run.
Bears at Packers is the game where the ladders and the game price pull apart. Chicago is two wins above Green Bay on the board, 10.1 to 8.1, and still trades at only 58.5 on the road. That is the market saying Lambeau is worth most of the gap, and that the Bears' repricing is a season call, not a Week 5 call.
Ravens at Falcons is the biggest disagreement of the week. Baltimore is fourth on the board at 11.4 and Atlanta 19th at 7.8, a gap of three and a half wins, and Atlanta is the favorite at 58.5. Two things explain it: the Falcons just put 45 on New Orleans, and Lamar Jackson is listed questionable.
Bills at Rams on Monday night is the quietest of the four. Buffalo is a tenth of a win above Los Angeles on the board and the Rams trade at 59.5 at home, which is home field priced and nothing more.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Kalshi favorite | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | Thu 8:15 p.m. | Cowboys | 79.5¢ |
| Eagles at Jaguars | Sun 9:30 a.m. | Jaguars | 74.5¢ |
| Bengals at Dolphins | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Bengals | 76.5¢ |
| Browns at Jets | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Jets | 55.5¢ |
| Texans at Titans | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Texans | 74.5¢ |
| Colts at Steelers | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Steelers | 56.5¢ |
| Raiders at Patriots | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Patriots | 63.5¢ |
| Vikings at Saints | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Vikings | 55.5¢ |
| Giants at Commanders | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Commanders | 62.5¢ |
| Bears at Packers | Sun 1:00 p.m. | Bears | 58.5¢ |
| Broncos at Chargers | Sun 4:05 p.m. | Broncos | 63¢ |
| Lions at Cardinals | Sun 4:25 p.m. | Lions | 69.5¢ |
| 49ers at Seahawks | Sun 4:25 p.m. | Seahawks | 58.5¢ |
| Ravens at Falcons | Sun 8:20 p.m. | Falcons | 58.5¢ |
| Bills at Rams | Mon 8:15 p.m. | Rams | 59.5¢ |
Kalshi midpoints as of Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 11:33 a.m. ET. These are market estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
The Board
Expected wins is the sum of a team's win-threshold contract midpoints on Kalshi, fetched Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 11:33 a.m. ET, with the rungs already settled counted at their settled value. The change column is the move since the September 22 read, and the last column is how Week 4 went.
| Team | Expected wins | Since Sept. 22 | Week 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 11.7 | -0.3 | L vs. NE |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.7 | +0.5 | W at LV |
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.7 | +0.3 | W vs. DEN |
| Baltimore Ravens | 11.4 | +0.6 | W vs. TEN |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.0 | +1.1 | W at CIN |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11.0 | -0.4 | W vs. LAC |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.9 | -0.1 | W at PHI |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.7 | +0.5 | W vs. MIA |
| Chicago Bears | 10.1 | +2.1 | W vs. NYJ |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.0 | -1.5 | L vs. JAX |
| Detroit Lions | 10.0 | -0.4 | L at CAR |
| Denver Broncos | 9.8 | +0.4 | L at SF |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.6 | +0.6 | W at HOU |
| New England Patriots | 9.6 | +0.0 | W at BUF |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9.3 | -1.4 | L vs. LAR |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.5 | +0.9 | W at WSH |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.3 | +0.6 | L vs. KC |
| Green Bay Packers | 8.1 | -1.0 | W at TB |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.8 | +2.3 | W at NO |
| Cleveland Browns | 7.7 | +1.8 | W vs. PIT |
| Houston Texans | 7.7 | -1.3 | L vs. DAL |
| New Orleans Saints | 7.5 | -1.2 | L vs. ATL |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 | +0.1 | L at CLE |
| New York Giants | 7.4 | -0.2 | W vs. ARI |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.3 | -0.4 | W vs. DET |
| Washington Commanders | 6.8 | +1.4 | L vs. IND |
| New York Jets | 5.8 | -1.0 | L at CHI |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5.7 | -0.5 | L at SEA |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.4 | -1.7 | L vs. GB |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.1 | -1.0 | L at NYG |
| Tennessee Titans | 4.1 | -0.2 | L at BAL |
| Miami Dolphins | 3.1 | +0.1 | L at MIN |
Week 4, Graded
The board as a forecaster: expected wins from the September 22 read beside the result, and one question per row: did the higher team win? It went 10-5 with one dead heat in Week 4, after 11-5 in Week 2 and 10-5 in Week 1. The five misses were New England at Buffalo, Jacksonville at Cincinnati, Atlanta at New Orleans, Carolina over Detroit and Cleveland over Pittsburgh. Three of the five were road teams beating a home team the board liked, the same pattern as Week 2, and the two home upsets both came from teams the board had near the bottom.
| Game (expected wins) | Final | Higher won |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers (7.4) at Cleveland Browns (5.9) | PIT 24, CLE 27 | No |
| Indianapolis Colts (7.6) at Washington Commanders (5.4) | IND 30, WSH 13 | Yes |
| New England Patriots (9.6) at Buffalo Bills (12.0) | NE 29, BUF 26 | No |
| New York Jets (6.8) at Chicago Bears (8.0) | NYJ 12, CHI 23 | Yes |
| Jacksonville Jaguars (9.9) at Cincinnati Bengals (11.5) | JAX 22, CIN 17 | No |
| Arizona Cardinals (6.1) at New York Giants (7.6) | ARI 24, NYG 36 | Yes |
| Los Angeles Rams (11.0) at Philadelphia Eagles (10.7) | LAR 24, PHI 20 | Yes |
| Green Bay Packers (9.1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.1) | GB 17, TB 14 | Yes |
| Tennessee Titans (4.3) at Baltimore Ravens (10.8) | TEN 18, BAL 24 | Yes |
| Dallas Cowboys (9.0) at Houston Texans (9.0) | DAL 34, HOU 30 | Even |
| Miami Dolphins (3.0) at Minnesota Vikings (10.2) | MIA 10, MIN 15 | Yes |
| Kansas City Chiefs (11.2) at Las Vegas Raiders (7.7) | KC 30, LV 27 | Yes |
| Denver Broncos (9.4) at San Francisco 49ers (11.4) | DEN 14, SF 24 | Yes |
| Los Angeles Chargers (6.2) at Seattle Seahawks (11.4) | LAC 23, SEA 30 | Yes |
| Detroit Lions (10.4) at Carolina Panthers (7.7) | DET 26, CAR 32 | No |
| Atlanta Falcons (5.5) at New Orleans Saints (8.7) | ATL 45, NO 24 | No |
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