NFL Week 2 · Sunday · Stokastic Props tool vs Kalshi
Kalshi NFL Prop Picks Sunday: Montgomery Is A Steal
By Jake Hari
September 20, 2026
Kalshi will pay you $1 if David Montgomery runs for 70 yards or more against the Bengals on Sunday, and it charges 37 cents for that ticket. Stokastic's projection for Montgomery is 84.7 yards. That 15-yard gap is the bet. The model is the same Stokastic NFL data behind Alex Baker's $1 million Milly Maker win and a subscriber's $1 million NFL DFS win, and on Sunday's Kalshi board it finds five contracts priced under its projection.
Projections from the Stokastic Props tool; Kalshi asks pulled at 9:39 a.m. ET Sunday. This page reprices after the 11:30 a.m. ET inactives and grades tonight.
The Five Kalshi Plays
| Player | Game | Kalshi contract | Ask | Stokastic projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | Bengals at Texans, 1:00 p.m. ET | 70+ rushing yards | 37¢ | 84.7 |
| David Montgomery | Bengals at Texans, 1:00 p.m. ET | 80+ rushing yards | 31¢ | 84.7 |
| Woody Marks | Bengals at Texans, 1:00 p.m. ET | 30+ rushing yards | 51¢ | 41.0 |
| Raheim Sanders | Browns at Buccaneers, 1:00 p.m. ET | 10+ rushing yards | 46¢ | 19.8 |
| Raheim Sanders | Browns at Buccaneers, 1:00 p.m. ET | 15+ rushing yards | 29¢ | 19.8 |
Montgomery 70+ at 37¢. Kalshi sells Montgomery's rushing yards in steps: 60 or more at 51 cents, 70 or more at 37, 80 or more at 31. The projection clears 60 by 25 yards and 70 by 15. Fifteen yards is not a lock; rushing yards swing wide from game to game. But moving from the 60-yard contract to the 70-yard one gives up 10 yards of cushion and saves 14 cents, and that trade is the buy. The case against is in the same backfield: the tool also projects Woody Marks for 41 yards, and both cannot be right unless Houston runs for 126 yards between them. The tool's answer is on the other side of the ball: it has C.J. Stroud under 30.5 pass attempts, so it sees a Houston game plan that runs more and throws less than the market expects. Both Texans plays depend on that.
Montgomery 80+ at 31¢. The projection is the model's middle outcome: as many of Montgomery's games land above 84.7 as below it. A contract that pays on 80 yards, below that middle, should cost more than 50 cents if the model is right, and Kalshi charges 31. That is the biggest gap on the page in cents, and the price you pay for it is that a 78-yard day, a win on the 70 contract, pays nothing here.
Marks 30+ at 51¢. Projected for 41, 11.5 yards clear of the contract. Polymarket prices the same line at +104, the same 51 cents.
Sanders 10+ at 46¢. The biggest cushion on the page in percentage terms: 19.8 projected against a 10-yard contract, nearly double.
Sanders 15+ at 29¢. Same logic as Montgomery 80: the model's middle outcome is 19.8, the contract pays on 15, and Kalshi charges 29 cents for a number the projection clears by nearly five yards. Two Sanders contracts double the exposure to one Cleveland game plan, so size the pair as one bet, not two.
Eight More The Tool Likes, Off The Exchange
Kalshi prices yards and touchdowns, not attempts, and its lowest rushing contract is 10 yards. These eight sit above 50% in the tool and have no contract to buy; the best line for each is on the Props tool.
| Player | Game | Projection | Line it beats | Model win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers, Steelers | Steelers at Patriots, 1:00 p.m. ET | 3.6 rushing yards | over 0.5 | 59% |
| Kirk Cousins, Raiders | Raiders at Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET | 23.3 pass attempts | under 29.5 | 57% |
| Cooper Rush, Falcons | Panthers at Falcons, 1:00 p.m. ET | 24.7 pass attempts | under 29.5 | 56% |
| Cooper Rush, Falcons | Panthers at Falcons | 9.1 rushing yards | over 0.5 | 55% |
| C.J. Stroud, Texans | Bengals at Texans | 25.8 pass attempts | under 30.5 | 55% |
| De'Von Achane, Dolphins | Dolphins at 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET | 17.2 carries | over 14.5 | 54% |
| Kirk Cousins, Raiders | Raiders at Chargers | 5.5 rushing yards | over 0.5 | 53% |
| Mike Washington Jr., Raiders | Raiders at Chargers | 6.9 carries | over 5.5 | 50% |
The three quarterback rushing plays are there because the tool expects at least one scramble from each, and none of the three is projected to reach Kalshi's 10-yard contract.
A Kalshi contract pays $1 if the player reaches the listed number, so Montgomery 70+ at 37 cents turns $37 plus Kalshi's fee into $100 on a 70-yard game.