NFL Week 2 · Sunday · Stokastic Props tool vs Kalshi
Kalshi NFL Prop Picks Sunday: The Steal Never Ran
By Jake Hari
September 20, 2026 · Updated September 22, 2026
The steal never ran. David Montgomery was projected for 84.7 rushing yards against Cincinnati, and his 70-yard contract traded at 37 cents on Kalshi. He carried six times for 10 yards. Houston fell behind, C.J. Stroud threw 55 passes, and every Montgomery rung on the board, from 30 yards up, settled at zero. The other four Kalshi plays on this page lost the same way: Woody Marks ran eight times for 8 yards against a 30-yard contract, and Raheim Sanders carried twice for 4 against a 10-yard one. Five plays, five losses. The eight small rows the tool liked off the exchange went 6-1.
| Player | Kalshi contract | Ask | Projection | Result | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 70+ rushing yards | 37¢ | 84.7 | 10 yards on 6 carries | Lost |
| David Montgomery | 80+ rushing yards | 31¢ | 84.7 | 10 yards | Lost |
| Woody Marks | 30+ rushing yards | 51¢ | 41.0 | 8 yards on 8 carries | Lost |
| Raheim Sanders | 10+ rushing yards | 46¢ | 19.8 | 4 yards on 2 carries | Lost |
| Raheim Sanders | 15+ rushing yards | 29¢ | 19.8 | 4 yards | Lost |
Results from the ESPN box scores; Kalshi settled every rung above at No. The tool's eight off-exchange rows are graded in the second table.
What The Projection Missed
The projection was a volume call, and the volume never came. Stokastic had Montgomery as Houston's lead back in a game the tool expected to be run-heavy; Cincinnati led 20-6 and Houston threw 55 times, with Stroud's 30 completions going for 353 yards. Montgomery and Marks combined for 14 carries and 18 yards. A rushing-yards contract is a bet on carries first and yards per carry second, and a team that trails by two scores stops handing the ball off. The 84.7 was a projection for a game script that did not happen, and the 37-cent price was the market's read that it might not.
Sanders was the same story in a different game. Cleveland won at Tampa Bay, but the carries went elsewhere and Sanders got two. A 19.8-yard projection on a back who touches the ball twice is a role projection, not a yardage projection, and the 46-cent contract paid nothing.
The Small Rows Paid
The eight plays the tool liked that Kalshi does not list were the opposite story, because they were bets on roles, not on game scripts.
| Player | Line it beats | Result | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers, Steelers | over 0.5 rushing yards | 5 yards on 1 carry | Won |
| Kirk Cousins, Raiders | under 29.5 pass attempts | 29 attempts | Won |
| Cooper Rush, Falcons | under 29.5 pass attempts | 17 attempts | Won |
| Cooper Rush, Falcons | over 0.5 rushing yards | 20 yards on 2 carries | Won |
| C.J. Stroud, Texans | under 30.5 pass attempts | 55 attempts | Lost |
| De'Von Achane, Dolphins | over 14.5 carries | 20 carries | Won |
| Kirk Cousins, Raiders | over 0.5 rushing yards | 1 yard on 4 carries | Won |
Six of seven, and the one loss was the same Houston game that sank the Montgomery play: Stroud's 55 attempts blew through a 30.5 line by 24. Cousins under 29.5 attempts won by half an attempt, on 29.
What The Week Taught
A quarterback attempts line and a quarterback rushing line move a few units either way; a running back's yardage line moves with the score. The page's biggest price and biggest projection sat on the play most exposed to a game going wrong, and it went wrong in the first half. Next Sunday's board weighs the game script before it weighs the projection, and a rushing-yards contract on a team that could trail early gets a smaller ticket or none.
The Stokastic NFL Props tool runs the same projections against every prop on every game; the Week 3 board goes up Sunday morning.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
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