NFL Playoff Odds: Stokastic Sims Vs Kalshi Prices

Two weeks of games split the NFL playoff board in half: the Vikings' contract rose more than any team's, the Chargers' fell more than any team's, and the NFC West is now priced for three playoff teams.

The Board, August Against Today

A Yes contract pays $1 if the team makes the playoffs, so the price in cents reads as the chance. Seven teams qualify from each conference. The August column is the last trade from the August 10 edition; the Now column is the ask this morning, the price a buyer pays.

Kalshi event KXNFLPLAYOFF-27, all markets active. August prices are the August 10 last trades; Now prices are this morning's asks, September 24, 2026. Records from the ESPN standings after Week 2.

The Stokastic Sims season outputs are not live yet; this edition reads the market against the results.

The Middle Band Broke In Half

The August board had two contracts above 75¢, five below 20¢, and fourteen teams stacked between 51¢ and 66¢.

Today seven contracts sit at 75¢ or higher, eight sit below 20¢, and the coin-flip band holds seven: the Lions, Vikings, Patriots, Jaguars, Broncos, Texans and Saints. The board got tighter with it: the asks add to 14.36 seats, down from 14.6 in August, against fourteen real ones.

A flat board is where a projection read earns the most, and this one is no longer flat. The edge now lives in the seven names still inside the band, and in the three winless contracts that fell to single digits.

Eight Teams At 0-2, One The Market Still Believes In

Houston is the exception. The Texans lost to Buffalo and Cincinnati, the two highest-priced teams in the conference, and the contract gave back only 8¢, from 62¢ to 54¢. The market reads those as schedule, not decline, and makes Houston a road favorite at Indianapolis on Sunday, where the loser falls to 0-3.

The Chargers are the other end of it. Los Angeles lost by twelve to Arizona and by twelve to Las Vegas, and the contract fell from 61¢ to 23¢, the largest drop on the board by a wide margin.

Washington gave back 22¢, from 31¢ to 9¢, after allowing 61 points in two games.

Tennessee, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis each lost between 11¢ and 17¢; Atlanta has scored 16 points all season. Miami, already the AFC floor in August, trades at 3¢.

The 2-0 Prices, And The Chiefs Gap That Closed

The August edition held the Chiefs' number as its best example of a market at odds with the books: 63¢ on the exchange against a book consensus near 71 percent. Two wins, over Denver and in overtime over Indianapolis, settled it at 81¢.

Buffalo's 91¢ is the highest price on the board; the Bills are the one August top-two contract that got more expensive, and the Rams, the other, fell. Cincinnati went from 65¢ to 82¢ after holding Houston to six points.

The NFC's unbeaten teams moved more. Minnesota is the board's biggest riser, 41¢ to 62¢, after outscoring Green Bay and Chicago by twenty-three. San Francisco went 58¢ to 78¢ with the best point differential in the league.

Philadelphia reached 78¢ on two wins by a combined six points. Las Vegas, the AFC's cheapest riser, nearly doubled from 17¢ to 31¢ after allowing 27 points in two games.

Which August Prices Held

Three contracts closed the two weeks where they opened: New England at 62¢, Denver at 59¢, and Detroit within a couple of cents at 64¢ after splitting an overtime win over New Orleans and the loss in Buffalo. Arizona, the August floor, trades at 7¢.

Baltimore is the odd one: a split record after losing at home to the Saints, and the price still rose to 78¢, because Pittsburgh (28¢) and Cleveland (11¢) are the only North teams it has to beat out for a wild card; Cincinnati at 82¢ is ahead of it.

The August chalk did not hold. The Rams opened the season as the only 80¢ contract in the league, lost to San Francisco, beat the Giants, and now trade at 74¢, third in their own division's price order behind the 49ers and the Seahawks, because the NFC West is the story of the new board.

The NFC West Is Priced For Three Playoff Teams

Add the four NFC West asks and you get 2.34 seats, with three teams at 74¢ or higher and the Cardinals at 7¢.

The NFC North, the August leader at 2.1 seats, is at 2.08. The NFC East is 1.53 with the Eagles carrying most of it.

The NFC South fell from 1.4 seats to 1.29, with the Saints at 53¢ now the only contract in the division higher than the Panthers'. The price says two wild cards come out of the West, and it says so with three teams at 74¢ or higher for the first time this season.

The Week 3 Games That Move This Board

Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, the Chargers visit Buffalo as 7-point underdogs, and Houston visits Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite, the one game this week between two winless contracts. Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite at Miami, the widest spread on the slate.

At 4:05, Minnesota's 62¢ contract goes to Tampa Bay as a 1.5-point favorite, the board's biggest riser against a winless team priced at 29¢.

At 4:25, Baltimore is 3.5 points better than Dallas and the Raiders are 3-point underdogs in New Orleans. Sunday night puts the Rams in Denver as 2.5-point favorites, a game between two contracts that held or nearly held their August price.

Monday night is Philadelphia at Chicago, Eagles by 4.5.

Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.

Prices from Kalshi event KXNFLPLAYOFF-27 on the morning of September 24, 2026; August column from the August 10 edition of this page. Records, scores and point differentials from the ESPN standings after Week 2. Week 3 spreads as of Thursday morning.

More on this: Kalshi NFL Prop Picks Sunday: Montgomery Is A Steal · Kalshi NFL Awards Odds · NFL MVP Odds 2026 · NFL Win Projections 2026: The Rams Fell From 1st To 8th · College Football Playoff Odds: One LSU Order Now Owns Half The Volume