Packers vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay: A Low, Tight Finish
By Jake Hari
October 4, 2026
Tampa Bay is still looking for its first win, and Green Bay comes to town as the favorite. My read is a low, tight game the Packers edge without anyone running away with it.
So I typed that score into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator and let it build the three-leg same game parlay. Then I flipped the winner to see what changed.
Low And Tight
Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Raymond James Stadium · FOX Stokastic Sims: Packers win 60%
Ko Kieft is out for Tampa Bay. That doesn't touch any of my legs.
Keep It Quiet
I typed in Packers 21, Buccaneers 19. This is the top card:
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| GB wins by 10+ | NO | 73¢ (-270) |
| Over 45.5 total points | NO | 71¢ (-245) |
| Kaleb Johnson to score | NO | 75¢ (-300) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near 21-19 |
|---|---|---|
| 39.3¢ (+154) | 38.9¢ (+157) | 69% |
Every leg is a NO, and they all describe the same game: no blowout, no shootout and no Kaleb Johnson touchdown. The sims price edges the Kalshi number, and if you're right about the score, it hit 69% of the time.
Bucs Win, Same Read
Flip it to Buccaneers 21, Packers 19 and the top card barely moves:
| Leg | Side | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| GB wins by 7+ | NO | 63¢ (-170) |
| Over 45.5 total points | NO | 71¢ (-245) |
| Kaleb Johnson to score | NO | 75¢ (-300) |
| Sims price | Kalshi legs | Near 21-19 |
|---|---|---|
| 35.0¢ (+186) | 33.5¢ (+198) | 74% |
Only the margin leg tightens. The low, close script pays no matter who wins. Both gaps are small, though. If the Kalshi number comes out higher by kickoff, skip the ticket, because the legs no longer hit together more often than their separate prices imply.
Build It Yourself
- Open GB @ TB in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
- Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script. Pick the score before the legs, because the legs that make sense change with it.
- Set legs to 3 and read the cards. Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit in 10,000 sims. Kalshi is the three legs bought one at a time, multiplied. Current Script is how often it hit in the sims that finished near your score, so it's the price if you're right.
My Ticket
- Packers 21-19 (39.3¢ sims): NO on GB wins by 10+, NO on Over 45.5 total points, NO on Kaleb Johnson to score.
Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day, and they move until kickoff. The simulator is free, so type your own Packers-Buccaneers score and see what it builds.
Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.
Type your own Packers-Buccaneers score into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator and it builds and prices the combos, from the same 10,000 sims.
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