Patriots vs Bills Same Game Parlay: James Cook Runs for 70

Buffalo is unbeaten and New England comes to town trying to catch up. My read is plain: the Bills win it on the ground, and the Patriots' run game never gets going.

So I typed that game into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator and let it build the three-leg same game parlay. Then I flipped the score to see what the upset ticket looks like.

Buffalo Runs It

New England Patriots (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-0) Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Highmark Stadium · CBS Stokastic Sims: Bills win 69%

Ray Davis is questionable and Tyrell Shavers is out for Buffalo. Neither touches my legs, and a thinner backfield is one more reason I'm building around James Cook.

Cook Gets His 70

I typed in Bills 28, Patriots 21. This is the top card:

A Buffalo lead means more Cook carries and fewer chances for Henderson, so these three legs show up in the same games. The sims price beats the Kalshi number by a wide margin, which tells me the legs hit together more often than their separate prices imply. That's the bet.

Patriots Pound It

Flip it to Patriots 27, Bills 24 and the top card runs through the New England backfield:

New England only wins this way if both of its backs get going and Cook never takes over the game. The gap between the two prices is thin. If the Kalshi number passes the sims price before kickoff, skip it. I like the Bills ticket better.

Build It Yourself

1. Open NE @ BUF in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
2. Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script. Pick the score before the legs, because the legs that make sense change with it.
3. Set legs to 3 and read the cards. Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit in 10,000 sims. Kalshi is the three legs bought one at a time, multiplied. Current Script is how often it hit in the sims that finished near your score, so it's the price if you're right.

My Ticket

• Bills 28-21 (40.4¢ sims): YES on BUF wins by 2+, YES on James Cook 70+ rushing yards, NO on TreVeyon Henderson 50+ rushing yards.

Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day, and they move until kickoff. The simulator is free, so type your own Patriots-Bills score and see what it builds.

Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.