Cowboys vs Texans Same Game Parlay: Williams Held Under 70

Houston hasn't won a game yet and it's still the favorite at home against Dallas. I think the Texans get there, but I think it's close, and a close game changes which legs belong on a same game parlay.

So I picked the score before the legs. I typed a narrow Houston win into the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator, then flipped it for the Dallas upset, and kept the top three-leg combo for each.

Houston By Three

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-3) Sunday, October 4 · 1:00 p.m. ET · Reliant Stadium · FOX Stokastic Sims: Texans win 53%

Neither team has a starter on the injury report. I think this one comes down to the last possession.

Williams Stays Quiet

The Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit in 10,000 sims. Kalshi is the three legs bought one at a time, multiplied. Current Script is how often it hit in the sims that finished near my score.

These legs hang together: when Dallas can't get Williams going, it doesn't pull away, and the game doesn't get to a shootout. The sims price beats the leg-by-leg price, and if the game lands near my score this cashes more often than not.

Not every card for this score is worth it. The third card adds YES on Dak Prescott 2+ passing TDs, and its Kalshi number is higher than its Sims Price. I'd skip it.

Dallas Flips It

Houston doesn't run away with it in the games where Montgomery is held down, and this ticket doesn't need Dallas to win. It cashes in a narrow Texans win too, which is why I like it.

Build It Yourself

1. Open DAL @ HOU in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
2. Type your final score into Pick Your Game Script.
3. Set legs to 3 and read the cards. If the Kalshi number is higher than the Sims Price, skip that ticket.

My Two Tickets

• Texans 26-23 (37.8¢ sims): NO on DAL wins by 6+, NO on Over 53.5 total points, NO on Javonte Williams 70+ rushing yards.
• Cowboys 26-23 (33.0¢ sims): NO on HOU wins by 6+, YES on Over 41.5 total points, NO on David Montgomery 60+ rushing yards.

Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day and move until kickoff. The simulator is free, so type your own Cowboys-Texans score and see what it builds.

Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.