3x3 With Lindy: Steelers vs. Browns Thursday Night Football Kalshi Parlays

Steelers and Browns on a Thursday night in Cleveland? I don't need a model to tell you how this divisional matchup usually plays out. But fortunately, we're unveiling the best publicly available simulations in the industry for game predictions, so I will definitely be using them to inform my play.

And as of today: so can you.

It's my belief that points will be hard to come by on Thursday Night, and with the new Kalshi Parlay Builder, I was able to plug in three final scores and pull the three best combos for each game script I see in store. Three scores, three combos apiece. 3x3 With Lindy. That's fun.

So let's play with the inputs based on my opinions, get granular about what changes/what doesn't as the game script flips, and find the most advantageous Kalshi combos and same-game parlays for this glorious Thursday Night.

One quick note before we dive in: the Parlay Builder lets you build combos anywhere from 2 to 6 legs. For this article, I'm keeping every combo to 3 legs, so the prices stay apples-to-apples from one score to the next.

The Setup: Steelers at Browns, Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1) Thursday, October 1 · 8:15 p.m. ET · Huntington Bank Field · Prime Video

Wait, all four AFC North squads are 2-1 to start off the season? Just as we all suspected! Steelers are nearly field-goal favorites on the road in this one with a grotesque total of 38.5, and Kalshi moneylines linger in the 57-cent range on the Steelers, 43 cents on the Browns. Our sims currently have it a little tighter at 55-45 respectively.

And yes, a 38.5 total is already low, yet in my mind? I think it goes lower. Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, two defenses that know each other too well, a short week and the lake wind in October. My three scores lean that way:

How The Stokastic Kalshi Parlay Builder Works

This is the tool I've been playing with all week, and it's built for exactly this kind of game. You pick the final score you believe in, and it goes through our 10,000 Stokastic simulations of the game to find the Kalshi markets that line up with that script. Then it builds the combos for you.

Here is what you control:

• Final score. Plus and minus buttons for each team. The tool shows the margin and total as you go.
• Play calling. How often each team goes run-heavy, balanced or pass-heavy in the sims that land at your score.
• Markets. Spread, total, and moneyline, plus passing, rushing, receiving and touchdown markets, for both teams or just one.
• Legs and price range. 2- to-6 legs, and a price filter from 99 cents down to 1 cent.

Every combo comes back with three numbers, and they're worth knowing before you read anything below:

• Sims Price is the fair price for the whole combo across all 10,000 sims.
• Sims Result is how often it actually hit, like "hit in 3,560 of 10,000."
• At Your Score is how often it hits in the sims that finish at or near the score you picked.

Every leg also shows the Kalshi price next to the sims price, so you can see which side of each market is cheap before you combine anything. It all comes down to price and probability.

Score #1: Steelers 17, Browns 13

This is the script I believe in most. At this score, the sims have Pittsburgh running the ball a lot: run-heavy in 41% of those games, balanced in 38% and pass-heavy in only 21%. Cleveland flips the other way, pass-heavy in 46% of them because it spends the second half chasing.

The two player legs never move. Judkins under 70 rushing yards hits 78% of the time at this score, and Warren getting to 50 hits 71% of the time. A 17-13 Steelers win is a game where Warren gets the ball a lot and the Browns' run game never gets going.

The only thing that changes across these three combos is how much faith you put in the Steelers:

• Combo #1: Browns don't win by 3 or more. Pittsburgh can lose by 1 or 2 and you're still fine.
• Combo #2: Browns don't win by 2 or more. That's 3 cents cheaper on Kalshi, and it costs you less than half a point of hit rate (35.6% down to 35.2%).
• Combo #3: Steelers win outright. Another 3 cents cheaper, and the hit rate drops to 34.2%.

All three hit 56.2% of the time if the score lands right where I have it. That's the tell: the spread leg barely matters at a 17-13 score, and it's the player legs doing the heavy lifting.

The correlation is the whole point, too. If these three legs had nothing to do with each other, Combo #1's Kalshi prices would multiply out to about 28.7 cents. The sims say they hit together 35.6% of the time, because a Steelers win, a Warren workload and a quiet Judkins night all come from the same game. When you see a combo price on Kalshi, that 35.6% is the number to hold it up against.

Score #2: Browns 13, Steelers 10

This is the pillow fight version of this game, and the play-calling picture changes completely. At 10-13, Pittsburgh is pass-heavy in 53% of the sims and run-heavy in only 12%. That's the Steelers trying to throw their way back into it. Cleveland is run-heavy 43% of the time, protecting a lead it has no business trying to extend.

That 97.9-cent number on Combos #1 and #2 is what happens when you nail the score in a game like this. If it finishes 13-10, the under hits, Rodgers throws one or zero touchdowns, and the Steelers obviously didn't win by 4 or 5. Those combos are close to locks at that score. Across all 10,000 sims they hit about 1-in-4 times, which is where the payout comes from.

Combos #1 and #2 differ by a single field goal. Moving the Steelers leg from "don't win by 5+" to "don't win by 4+" saves 4 cents on Kalshi and drops the hit rate from 24.3% to 22.8%.

Combo #3 is the one I like best in this script. It's the full "Pittsburgh can't get out of its own way" story: the Browns win, Metcalf stays under 60 yards and Warren doesn't find the end zone. It hits 63.9% of the time at this score, and it doesn't need the total to stay under 36.5.

One of the two biggest gaps on the whole board is in this script. Rodgers under 2 passing touchdowns is 65 cents on Kalshi, but the sims price it at 70. The only other leg where Kalshi sits 5 cents under the sims is Warren under 70 rushing yards.

Score #3: Browns 24, Steelers 21

This is my hedge script, the one where I'm wrong about the total. At 21-24, Pittsburgh is still pass-heavy (50% of the sims) and Cleveland still leans on the run (43%). The difference is that both quarterbacks actually get into the end zone.

Combos #1 and #2 are the same bet at two different totals. Going from Over 35.5 to Over 36.5 saves 4 cents on Kalshi, and the hit rate drops from 35.7% to 34.3%. At 45 points, both totals clear easily.

Combo #3 at this score is the one to watch IMO. It has the lowest hit rate of the three, but it's the combo where the sims and Kalshi disagree the most (see: +EV). Line those three Kalshi prices up and they multiply to about 17 cents. The sims have the combo hitting 27.3% of the time. That's a 10-cent gap, the biggest correlation gap of all nine combos, because a close Browns game, a Watson touchdown and a quiet Warren night all come from the same script.

What Actually Changes From Score To Score

Let's get specific about what moves across my three chosen game scripts. Or in some cases: whom.

For example: Jaylen Warren is in every script, but on a different side each time.

When Pittsburgh wins, Warren gets fed. When it loses, he doesn't. The sims also like Warren less than Kalshi does across the board: 5 cents lower on the 50-yard line, 5 cents higher on the under-70 side.

Aaron Rodgers flips with the total. In Score #2 (13-10), Combos #1 and #2 take Rodgers under 2 passing touchdowns. In Score #3 (24-21), Combos #1 and #2 take Rodgers to throw a touchdown at all, which hits 79% of the time. Both markets tell the same story: the sims are lower on Rodgers than Kalshi is. Under 2 TDs is 70 cents in the sims and 65 on Kalshi, and "throws a TD" is 69 cents in the sims and 73 on Kalshi.

The play calling flips, too.

The team in front runs, and the team behind throws. That's why the rushing legs follow the winner and the passing legs follow the loser. Correlation is neat.

Also worth noting: the spread ladder. Each step saves 2-to-4 cents on the leg and costs the combo somewhere between half a point and a point and a half of hit rate.

Where Kalshi and the Stokastic Sims disagree the most:

• Cheaper on Kalshi than the sims: Rodgers under 2 passing TDs (65¢ vs. 70¢), Warren under 70 rushing yards (56¢ vs. 61¢), plus Over 35.5, Over 36.5, the Browns to win and "Steelers don't win by 2+" at 2 cents each.
• Pricier on Kalshi than the sims: Warren 50+ rushing yards (68¢ vs. 63¢), Rodgers throws a TD pass (73¢ vs. 69¢), Warren doesn't score (56¢ vs. 52¢) and Browns don't win by 3+ (63¢ vs. 59¢).
• Right on the number: Metcalf under 60 receiving yards at 70 cents in both.

The pattern: Kalshi is higher on the Steelers' offense than our sims are, on both Rodgers and Warren. The sims actually have the total a touch higher than Kalshi does, so the points they see are coming from Cleveland. If you're with me on a quiet Pittsburgh offense, the Rodgers and Warren unders are where your lean and the sims line up.

Final Thoughts

If you forced me to pick one script, it's Score #1 (Steelers 17, Browns 13), and the combo I'd be looking at is Combo #1: Browns don't win by 3+, Judkins under 70 and Warren over 50. It hits 35.6% of the time across all 10,000 simulations and 56.2% when the game lands on my chosen score, and all three legs point at the same game.

The bigger takeaway is the method. Pick the score you believe in and let the sims tell you which legs actually fit that game. Then compare the combo price on Kalshi against how often it really hits. Take the same three legs over to the same-game parlay builders at DraftKings and FanDuel, too. The payouts won't all be the same, and you want the best one, so do your due diligence and shop for the best price.

Keep in mind: every single one of these combos is more likely to miss than hit across the full 10,000 sims, and nothing here is financial advice. Know the number before you buy.

Enjoy Thursday night, and may a lack of points be ever in our favor.

— Lindy

More on this: Browns Starting Quarterback: Watson Has The Job. DraftKings Priced A Tie. · Polymarket Combo Simulator: Fair Odds On Every Parlay · Kalshi Parlay Simulator: Odds For Every Combo · Chargers vs Bills Prediction: The Leak Doesn't Matter · Eagles vs Bears Prediction: Chicago's Third Quarterback