DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Picks And Stacks
By Sam Smith
September 7, 2026 · Updated September 13, 2026
The free DraftKings NFL DFS cheat sheet from Stokastic for the 12-game Week 1 main slate on Sunday, Sept. 13, comes down to one row: Michael Mayer, a $2,900 tight end, sits in 73.3% of the top-150 Sims lineups at 25.1% projected ownership. His 47.9% leverage score is the widest on the board, and it pays for the Burrow stack and both elite backs.
The Quick Answer
Play Mayer, Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson and the Browns defense, the four biggest leverage plays. Under-own Jahmyr Gibbs (47.2% owned, 36.7% exposure). Chris Olave (26.2% owned) makes neither the exposure nor the leverage panel, so he is out. Stack Joe Burrow. The board and build are below.
The Week 1 Board For Sunday, Sept. 13
| Panel | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Projections (Proj FP) | Jahmyr Gibbs 23.7 | Ja'Marr Chase 22.1 | Bijan Robinson 22.0 | Lamar Jackson 21.5 | Joe Burrow 21.4 |
| Highest Ownership (Own%) | Jahmyr Gibbs 47.2% | Ja'Marr Chase 32.4% | Chris Olave 26.2% | Michael Mayer 25.1% | Bijan Robinson 24.2% |
| Top Values (Value) | Michael Mayer 3.7 | Kyler Murray 3.7 | Trevor Lawrence 3.4 | Tyler Shough 3.3 | Justin Herbert 3.3 |
| Top Exposures (Exp%) | Michael Mayer 73.3% | Ja'Marr Chase 51.3% | Bijan Robinson 43.3% | Browns 39.3% | Jahmyr Gibbs 36.7% |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | Michael Mayer 47.9% | Browns 30.2% | Bijan Robinson 18.8% | Ja'Marr Chase 18.6% | Tre Tucker 13.6% |
| Top QB+2 Stacks (Stack%) | Joe Burrow 10.0% | Lamar Jackson 6.0% | Kyler Murray 4.0% | Justin Herbert 2.7% | Caleb Williams 2.7% |
The Stokastic Sims play the slate tens of thousands of times with ownership modeled as a distribution and rank the lineup pool by simulated ROI, which is how Gibbs is first in projection at 23.7 and only fifth in exposure: at 47.2% owned, his good Sundays are shared with nearly half the contest.
Who To Play And Who To Fade
DraftKings' Week 1 prices, Mayer at $2,900, were out by Aug. 1, over five weeks before Brock Bowers' meniscus procedure left him at zero in the Sims, so the Sims get a starting tight end at a backup's price under full-PPR scoring. That is why he ties Kyler Murray for top value at 3.7 and sits in three of every four top-150 lineups. Tre Tucker ($4,000) is the same Raiders passing game, fifth in leverage at 13.6%. The Browns defense ($2,100, 39.3% exposure, 30.2% leverage) settles a conflict: Trevor Lawrence is third in value at 3.4, but the Sims lean Cleveland's defense, so I do not roster both. Bijan Robinson (43.3% exposure, 18.8% leverage) is the back I overweight against his 24.2% ownership. Gibbs gets a third of my entries, not half, which is where leverage gets paid.
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Worked Example: The Burrow Stack With Higgins In The FLEX
Burrow leads the QB+2 stack panel at 10.0%, and Ja'Marr Chase, in 51.3% of top-150 lineups, is the first piece. The panel does not name the second, so that call is mine: Tee Higgins ($6,300), because DraftKings' 3-point bonuses at 100 receiving and 300 passing yards let a quarterback and two receivers cash together. The build: Burrow ($6,900), Bijan ($7,700), Gibbs ($8,000), Chase ($7,800), Tucker ($4,000), Devaughn Vele ($3,500) as cap filler, Mayer ($2,900), Higgins ($6,300) in the FLEX and the Browns ($2,100). That is $49,200; the $800 left does not buy a Buccaneers bring-back, so the stack stays one-sided. Higgins takes the FLEX because Bijan and Gibbs own both running back seats; the Mayer discount lets those two share a lineup. The free sheet shows you Mayer's 73.3%; the paid Stokastic NFL DFS packages let you run the Sims with your own exposure settings, plus the Ownership Projections behind Gibbs' 47.2%. Code CHEAT takes 15% off your first payment.
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