DraftKings NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 TNF
By Sam Smith
September 10, 2026
Puka Nacua is my Captain for Week 1 Thursday Night Football, 49ers at Rams on Thursday, September 10 at 8:35 p.m. ET (10:35 a.m. Friday in Melbourne), on DraftKings Showdown. He leads the free Stokastic NFL Showdown cheat sheet's captain exposures at 20.0% and its projections at 21.2. He is the Sims' top Captain, and his captain leverage does not crack the panel, so the leverage in this build lives in the five seats under him. The number I keep coming back to is a kicker.
The Quick Answer
Captain Nacua, $16,800 in the slot. Christian McCaffrey (18.0%) captains a second entry. Harrison Mevis, 43.3% flex exposure and 22.80% leverage, is the FLEX I fill first. Brock Purdy and McCaffrey are the bring-back. Matthew Stafford is the fade. The full board and a $49,800 build are below.
The Week 1 TNF Board On DraftKings
$50,000 buys six spots, one Captain at 1.5 times the salary for 1.5 times the points and five FLEX, kickers and defenses eligible. The Stokastic Sims play this game tens of thousands of times on one game script per run, so a Rams drive that stalls inside the 20 shows up in Mevis's 43.3% top-150 exposure. Ownership enters as a distribution, and the NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub refresh through lock. Panels captured Thursday morning, September 10; recheck before lock.
| Panel | Top three |
|---|---|
| Top Flex Projections (Proj FP) | Puka Nacua 21.2, Christian McCaffrey 20.7, Brock Purdy 18.2 |
| Flex Ownership (Own%) | Brock Purdy 48.4%, Matthew Stafford 47.0%, Christian McCaffrey 46.3% |
| Flex Exposures (Exp%) | Brock Purdy 58.0%, Christian McCaffrey 50.0%, Matthew Stafford 45.3% |
| Captain Exposures (Exp%) | Puka Nacua 20.0%, Christian McCaffrey 18.0%, Davante Adams 10.0% |
| Top Values (Value) | Blake Corum 1.98, Christian McCaffrey 1.96, Brock Purdy 1.94 |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | Harrison Mevis 22.80%, 49ers D/ST 15.00%, Brock Purdy 9.60% |
Mevis is the name on this board. He misses the ownership panel, so he is under 32.2% owned against 43.3% exposure, his 22.80% leverage is the widest gap on the slate, and he is the only Captain to crack the leverage panel, at 3.00%.
Worked Example: Nacua To $49,800
DraftKings salaries via our 49ers vs Rams showdown page.
- Nacua at Captain, $16,800 by the Captain-slot math, leaving $33,200 for five FLEX.
- Mevis ($5,000) first.
- Purdy ($9,400) and McCaffrey ($10,600), the 49ers bring-back, the two highest flex exposures on the sheet, both with positive leverage.
- Corum ($4,600, top value at 1.98) and the 49ers D/ST ($3,400, 15.00% leverage) close it at $49,800.
Mevis and the 49ers D/ST share an outcome: a Rams drive that dies at the 22 pays both. The conflict I accept is Nacua, whose ceiling is the touchdown those drives never score, and 15.00% leverage on a unit on no other panel is worth it. Entry two keeps the same six and swaps the Captain to McCaffrey ($15,900), with Nacua back at $11,200, for $49,500.
More on this: NFL DFS Hub: Every Live Stokastic NFL Page · DraftKings NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Patriots At Seahawks · FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 TNF · FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Kickoff · DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Picks And Stacks
Where The Field Is Over-Invested
Stafford is 47.0% owned against 45.3% exposure, the one star the Sims want less of than the room has. Purdy is owned more, 48.4%, and run at 58.0%, the build-around rather than a fade. Kyren Williams is 32.2% owned; Corum's 1.98 value is where I take the Rams backfield.
The cheat sheet is free. Code KICKOFF20 takes 20% off your first payment on the Stokastic NFL Sims behind it. 21+.