DraftKings NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 TNF
By Sam Smith
September 10, 2026
Puka Nacua is my Captain for Thursday night's Week 1 opener, 49ers at Rams in Melbourne on Thursday, September 10 at 8:35 p.m. ET (10:35 a.m. Friday local time), streamed on Netflix, on DraftKings Showdown. He leads the free Stokastic NFL Showdown cheat sheet's captain exposures at 21.8% and its projections at 21.4. He is the Sims' top Captain, and the room knows it: his captain ownership is 25.2%, so the leverage in this build lives in the five seats under him. The number I keep coming back to is a kicker, and the afternoon run cut that number by three quarters.
Refreshed Sept. 10, 7:15 p.m. ET: every panel re-pulled from the Stokastic Sims, projections published 4:50 p.m. ET and ownership 4:53 p.m. ET. The picks hold, the leverage shrank, and the news record runs through Thursday afternoon; the official inactives had not posted when this went up.
The Quick Answer
Captain Nacua, $16,800 in the slot. Christian McCaffrey (20.8%) captains a second entry, and that entry carries positive captain leverage. Harrison Mevis, 30.3% flex exposure and 6.0% leverage, is still the FLEX I fill first. Brock Purdy and McCaffrey are the bring-back. Matthew Stafford is the fade. The full board, what moved since the morning run, and a $49,800 build are below.
The Week 1 TNF Board On DraftKings
The line is Rams by 3.5 with a 47.5 total, so the Rams are implied for about 25.5 points and the 49ers about 22. $50,000 buys one Captain at 1.5 times the salary for 1.5 times the points and five FLEX, kickers and defenses eligible. The Stokastic Sims run the game many times, and exposure is how often a player makes the top 150 lineups, so a Rams drive that stalls inside the 20 shows up in Mevis's 30.3%. The NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub refresh through lock. Panels below are the 4:50 p.m. ET run; recheck before lock.
| Panel | Top three |
|---|---|
| Top Flex Projections (Proj FP) | Puka Nacua 21.4, Christian McCaffrey 21.0, Brock Purdy 18.5 |
| Flex Ownership (Own%) | Brock Purdy 51.2%, Christian McCaffrey 46.9%, Matthew Stafford 44.5% |
| Flex Exposures (Exp%) | Brock Purdy 49.6%, Christian McCaffrey 46.2%, Matthew Stafford 42.5% |
| Captain Exposures (Exp%) | Puka Nacua 21.8%, Christian McCaffrey 20.8%, Brock Purdy 14.1% |
| Top Values (Value) | Blake Corum 1.99, Christian McCaffrey 1.98, Brock Purdy 1.96 |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | Harrison Mevis 6.0%, 49ers D/ST 3.6%, Davante Adams 3.1% |
Mevis is still the name on this board, and the reason changed. This morning he was 20.5% owned against 43.3% exposure; now he is 24.3% owned against 30.3%. The gap is a quarter of what it was, and it is still the widest on the slate, which tells you how flat the rest of the leverage column is.
What Moved Since The Morning Run
Most of the board moved; these are the rows that matter. All of them are mostly the Sims pulling back, and the field also added about three points of ownership on Mevis and Purdy.
| Player | Morning (Own% / Exp% / Lev%) | 4:50 p.m. ET (Own% / Exp% / Lev%) |
|---|---|---|
| Harrison Mevis | 20.5% / 43.3% / 22.8% | 24.3% / 30.3% / 6.0% |
| Brock Purdy | 48.4% / 58.0% / 9.6% | 51.2% / 49.6% / -1.7% |
| 49ers D/ST | (not in top 3) / (not in top 3) / 15.0% | 11.4% / 15.0% / 3.6% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 46.3% / 50.0% / 3.7% | 46.9% / 46.2% / -0.7% |
| Matthew Stafford | 47.0% / 45.3% / -1.7% | 44.5% / 42.5% / -2.0% |
| Davante Adams (Captain Slot) | 10.0% captain exposure | 7.1% captain exposure |
The Mevis row is the one to read twice. The Sims cut his exposure by 13 points and the room's projected ownership climbed to 24.3%, so the leverage collapsed from both sides at once. He is still the top leverage play and still the first FLEX I fill, but a 6-point edge on a kicker is a tiebreaker, not a thesis, and the build should stop leaning on him for uniqueness. The 49ers D/ST, the other leverage leg in the worked build, lost even more: 15.0 points of leverage this morning, 3.6 now, with the room at 11.4% and the Sims at 15.0%. McCaffrey's flex leverage flipped from +3.7 to -0.7. Purdy flipped from the largest positive leverage among the stars to slightly negative: the room moved to 51.2% on him while the Sims trimmed him to 49.6%. He stays in the build because the 49ers bring-back needs its quarterback, not because he is contrarian anymore. Stafford is a touch more of a fade than he was.
The captain column is where the second entry pays off. Nacua's captain ownership, 25.2%, runs ahead of his 21.8% captain exposure, so the Captain the Sims like most is also the one the room over-plays by 3.4 points. McCaffrey at Captain is 19.3% owned against 20.8% exposure, and Purdy at Captain is 11.9% against 14.1%, the two positive captain-leverage seats at the top of the board. Nacua stays my Captain on purpose: the main entry takes the top projection on the higher-implied offense, the receiver whose ceiling game is the one that wins a Showdown outright, and lets the second entry carry the leverage. That is the McCaffrey entry's job.
The News Record Before Lock
Neither starting quarterback is on a final injury report, and the official inactives had not posted when this ran at 7:10 p.m. ET. Purdy and Stafford are both absent from Wednesday's reports, and Nacua is off the Rams' list, per the official Week 1 injury report on therams.com. The Rams ruled out Aaron Donald, who did not travel to Australia, and Sean McVay said Myles Garrett (knee) will be "ready to go," per NFL.com on September 8. On the 49ers' side, defensive tackle Alfred Collins tore his patellar tendon at practice in Melbourne and is out for the season, per ESPN on September 8, and Sam Okuayinonu went on injured reserve with a broken foot before the trip. The 49ers' final report lists Collins out and James Thompson Jr. (hamstring) questionable; Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Dre Greenlaw, Renardo Green and Kyle Juszczyk were among eight players limited with no game-status designation, per 49ers Webzone on September 9. McCaffrey and Mike Evans are not on the report at all.
For this slate, that record leans toward the Rams offense. Both defensive fronts are short a starter, Donald for the Rams and Collins for the 49ers, but the 49ers lost two linemen to the Rams' one and face the offense implied for the higher total, which is where Nacua's projection lead comes from. The Rams D/ST (25.2% exposure, 1.87 value) outranks the 49ers' unit on projection, 7.5 to 4.8, because the 49ers are the side implied for fewer points. Kittle's limited week was the flag on a $7,400 salary until Thursday afternoon, when Adam Schefter said on the Pat McAfee Show that "George Kittle and Nick Bosa are both gonna be out there for the 49ers tonight," and that McCaffrey is ready for his usual workload, per 49ers Webzone on September 10. Kittle is playable, then, but at 14.0% owned and 14.1% exposure he is neutral leverage, and both builds still spend his money on the Mevis and 49ers D/ST pairing. Juszczyk ($1,400, 8.0% owned) was limited too, and I am not paying a roster spot to find out.
Worked Example: Nacua To $49,800
DraftKings salaries via our 49ers vs Rams showdown page.
- Nacua at Captain, $16,800 by the Captain-slot math, leaving $33,200 for five FLEX.
- Mevis ($5,000) first.
- Purdy ($9,400) and McCaffrey ($10,600), the 49ers bring-back, the two highest flex exposures on the sheet.
- Corum ($4,600, top value at 1.99, 1.8% leverage) and the 49ers D/ST ($3,400, 3.6% leverage) close it at $49,800.
Mevis and the 49ers D/ST share an outcome: a Rams drive that dies at the 22 pays both. The conflict I accept is Nacua, whose ceiling is the touchdown those drives never score. That conflict cost less this morning, when Mevis carried 22.8 points of leverage and the 49ers D/ST 15.0; at 6.0 and 3.6 they are still the top two leverage plays on the board, but the pairing is a fair price now, not a free roll. Entry two keeps the same six and swaps the Captain to McCaffrey ($15,900), with Nacua back at $11,200, for $49,500, and that is the entry with the positive captain leverage.
More on this: NFL DFS Hub: Every Live Stokastic NFL Page · DraftKings NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 MNF · DraftKings Showdown Cheat Sheet Week 1: Patriots-Seahawks · FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 TNF · FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 MNF
Where The Field Is Over-Invested
Stafford is 44.5% owned against 42.5% exposure, the star the Sims want the least of relative to the room. Fading him under a Nacua Captain is deliberate: the build wins the script where Nacua eats the yardage and the Rams drives stall into Mevis kicks, which caps Stafford's touchdowns, and his $9,800 is what pays for the 49ers bring-back. Purdy joined him on the wrong side of the line this afternoon, 51.2% owned and run at 49.6%, but he is the build-around rather than a fade because the bring-back does not work without him. Kyren Williams is 32.2% owned against 31.6% exposure; Corum's 1.99 value is where I take the Rams backfield. Colby Parkinson is the quiet over-invest at tight end, 18.1% owned against 14.8% exposure, and Terrance Ferguson (19.7% owned, 18.8% exposure, 1.75 value) is the Rams tight end the Sims prefer: $400 cheaper at $3,200 with the higher projection, 5.6 to 5.5.
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