FanDuel MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Sept. 8 Picks And Stacks

The September 8 FanDuel MLB DFS cheat sheet is the rare board where the field and the Stokastic Sims agree on the pitcher and split on the bats. Tarik Skubal is chalk and leverage at once; the hitting runs through Toronto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Quick Answer

Play Skubal, then build Blue Jays: he leads tonight's board in projection (41.54), ownership (37.5%) and top-150 exposure (61.3%) and still shows 23.5% leverage, while Toronto at the Athletics leads the 4-stacks at 22.0%, nearly double the next team. Guerrero is the top value (4.86) and top leverage play (26.0%); the full build is below.

Today's Board For September 8

Every panel comes out of the Stokastic Sims, which play the slate tens of thousands of times with stack correlation built in, treat Ownership Projections as distributions, and rank the lineup pool by sim ROI; Exp% is the top-150 slice of that pool (MLB DFS Sims guide). Top three per panel:

Guerrero's row is the one. The board prints no ownership number for him; back it out (exposure minus leverage) and you get about 17%, just under Springer's 17.3% cutoff for the ownership panel. The field is on him, just not enough: 42.7% exposure against roughly 17% ownership is the 26.0% edge. Judge, the top bat on the ownership panel at 21.8%, nets 16.2%.

Skubal At Pitcher, Toronto At The Plate

FanDuel rosters one pitcher, so tonight's arm is most of your variance. Skubal, the Dodgers' starter against Cincinnati, projects 1.64 points clear of Misiorowski and 2.45 clear of Schlittler (Yankees, against Colorado's Gabriel Hughes), though both carry better ERAs (1.97 and 2.04 to his 2.86). The Sims still put him in 61.3% of the top-150 pool, well clear of any bat: FanDuel pays 3 per strikeout and 6 for the win with no penalty for hits or walks, and the Reds have struck out 1,375 times this season. Sean Burke (33.08) and Quinn Mathews (27.97) are the only other arms on the board.

That decision sends the bats to Toronto. FanDuel caps you at four hitters from one team, which is why this panel reads Top 4-Stacks, the core difference from DraftKings and its five-man stacks. The Jays' 22.0% arrives with three seats named, and the Sims buy the bats individually as well as the stack: Guerrero, Springer (4.27) and Andres Gimenez (4.00) sit first, third and fifth on value, Guerrero and Springer (35.3%) second and fourth on exposure. All of it runs into Jack Perkins, a 6.50 ERA over 13 starts who has allowed 18 home runs in 98.1 innings; on a site that pays 12 for a homer, that is the shape you want. Ketel Marte (27.3% exposure, 14.4% leverage) anchors the 11.3% Diamondbacks stack against Michael Wacha as the secondary. Judge is a different play: Hughes carries a 6.19 ERA but has allowed only 5 homers in 52.1 innings, so Judge is a runs-and-RBI bat tonight, not a 12-point swing. FanDuel's flatter hitter scoring, a run (3.2) and an RBI (3.5) paying about what a single (3) does, shrinks the payoff for zeroing chalk anyway; I keep Judge and differentiate with the Jays.

More on this: FanDuel MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Projections, Ownership & Stacks · FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Picks And Stacks · FanDuel PGA DFS Cheat Sheet: Sims, Projections And Ownership · DraftKings MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Projections, Ownership & Stacks For August 3 · DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Picks And Stacks

Worked Example: Guerrero To The Full Build

1. Start with Guerrero at C/1B, Perkins' homer rate being the 12-point upside, and finish the Toronto 4-stack: Gimenez at shortstop, Springer at utility (he is Toronto's designated hitter), and the fourth Jay at third base or outfield from the MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub.
2. Marte at second base plus one Diamondback in the outfield as the correlated pairing; four Jays and Judge leave four seats, so Arizona shrinks to two.
3. Judge in the outfield; the last outfield or third-base seat is a one-off from the DataHub. Will Smith (4.12 value, facing left-hander Nick Lodolo, 16 homers allowed in 85 innings) is the best bat I cannot fit: he is a catcher, Guerrero owns C/1B, and Springer needs the utility seat unless FanDuel lists him at outfield tonight.
4. Skubal at pitcher. Toronto's 9:40 PM ET first pitch comes hours after the early games lock, so the fourth Jay is a projection, not a confirmation; check posted lineups before lock.

The field lands on Skubal either way; the separation is the four Toronto seats behind him. If the Jays are where you lean tonight, the Sims that built this board are the paid half: the cheat sheet is free every day, and code CHEAT takes 15% off your first week or month of the Stokastic MLB DFS packages behind it. 21+, play responsibly.

Get Stokastic MLB DFS