FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 MNF
By Sam Smith
September 14, 2026
Bo Nix is my MVP for Broncos at Chiefs, tonight's Week 1 Monday Night Football game, September 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET, on FanDuel Single Game. Board as of 7:54 a.m. ET; ownership moves through lock. The Sims put Nix and Patrick Mahomes in the MVP slot 18.0% apiece in their best lineups, Kenneth Walker III next at 16.7%. One leverage row and some salary arithmetic break the tie.
The Quick Answer
MVP Nix at $17,700, then the exposure panel in order: Mahomes, Walker III, the Chiefs defense and Courtland Sutton, plus Pat Bryant, the top value at 2.16. Harrison Butker and Rashee Rice are the fades. The top of every panel and the $59,900 build are below.
Tonight's Single Game Board On FanDuel
| Panel | No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AnyFlex Projections | Patrick Mahomes 17.9 | Bo Nix 17.5 | Kenneth Walker III 15.8 |
| AnyFlex Ownership | Bo Nix 55.8% | Patrick Mahomes 54.6% | Kenneth Walker III 48.1% |
| AnyFlex Exposures | Bo Nix 61.3% | Patrick Mahomes 55.3% | Kenneth Walker III 42.0% |
| MVP Exposures | Bo Nix 18.0% | Patrick Mahomes 18.0% | Kenneth Walker III 16.7% |
| Top Values | Pat Bryant 2.16 | Bo Nix 1.48 | Kenneth Walker III 1.46 |
| Leverage Plays | Chiefs 13.5% | Broncos 9.9% | Courtland Sutton 8.7% |
Leverage rows four and five: Nix 5.2%, Sutton (MVP) 4.2%.
The row I keep coming back to is Nix at 5.2%, the only quarterback on the leverage panel; Mahomes, 55.3% exposure on 54.6% ownership, is not on it anywhere. One game runs one shared script inside the Stokastic Sims: Nix, Mahomes and Sutton are the shootout leg, Walker III and the Chiefs defense the Kansas-City-controls-it leg, and six seats hold both. That is why the Chiefs defense is fourth in exposure at 31.3% and first in leverage at 13.5% while the Broncos defense, 9.9% and $400 dearer, reaches no other panel. Ownership enters as a distribution too, which is how Nix is 55.8% owned and still carries leverage.
Where The Field Is Over-Invested
Butker and Rice. Butker is fourth in ownership at 33.8%, fifth in value at 1.36, and on neither exposure panel: the field pays chalk prices for stalled Kansas City drives, the outcome the Chiefs defense already covers. Rice is fourth in projection at 12.6, fifth in ownership at 33.4%, and on neither exposure panel either; at $11,400 on FanDuel's half-point receptions his 1.10 value is the worst here, $1,200 more than Sutton for none of Sutton's leverage. Sutton is on that panel twice, 8.7% as an AnyFlex and 4.2% in the MVP row, the only MVP-labelled entry.
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Worked Example: Nix At $17,700
FanDuel Single Game is six slots under $60,000, the MVP at 1.5 times the salary and 1.5 times the points, five AnyFlex at face value. Salaries are the Sims' FanDuel slate feed; the board carries none.
- Nix at MVP, $11,800 at face value, $17,700 in the slot, leaving $42,300.
- Mahomes ($12,400), Walker III ($10,800) and Sutton ($10,200), Nos. 2, 3 and 5 on the exposure panel. $8,900 left.
- The Chiefs defense ($6,400, No. 4) and Bryant ($2,400): $59,900. Bryant's 2.16 is 5.2 projected points, more than double any cheaper player on the slate.
That is the board's six, and it only fits this way round: Mahomes at MVP ($18,600) with Nix in the flex leaves $2,200, $200 short of Bryant. The $2,400 seat is why the Nix build fits; if Bryant is inactive, Sutton at MVP ($15,300, Nix in the flex, $59,100) becomes the fallback, not the second entry. The NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub refresh through lock.
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