DraftKings NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 3 TNF
By Sam Smith
September 24, 2026
Bijan Robinson is my Captain for Falcons at Packers, the Week 3 Thursday night game on September 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Stokastic Sims put him in the Captain slot of 36.7% of their best lineups, more than the next three names combined, at $11,800 in the flex and $17,700 as the Captain. The field already has him in the flex in 50.9% of its lineups, so the edge is which slot he lands in.
The Quick Answer
Captain Bijan at $17,700, leaving $32,300 for five FLEX, with the Falcons defense underneath him. Kyle Pitts Sr. is the second-entry Captain at $9,900 in the 1.5x slot. Both builds are below.
The Thursday Night Board
| Panel | No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top Flex Projections (Proj FP) | Bijan Robinson 22.8 | Jordan Love 17.8 | Christian Watson 15.7 |
| Flex Ownership (Own%) | Jordan Love 51.6% | Bijan Robinson 50.9% | Michael Penix Jr. 36.1% |
| Flex Exposures (Exp%) | Jordan Love 51.3% | Bijan Robinson 50.7% | Michael Penix Jr. 35.3% |
| Captain Exposures (Exp%) | Bijan Robinson 36.7% | Drake London 11.3% | Christian Watson 11.3% |
| Top Values (proj pts per $1,000) | Charlie Woerner 3.79 | Mark Redman 2.16 | Bijan Robinson 1.93 |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | Falcons 13.10% | Bijan Robinson (Captain) 9.60% | Kyle Pitts Sr. (Captain) 6.40% |
Robinson's flex ownership and flex exposure sit two tenths apart, 50.9% against 50.7%, yet he is the second-best leverage play on the board as a Captain at 9.60%. The field plays him, just not in the 1.5x slot as often as the Sims do, and he has 48 touches through two games.
Worked Example: Bijan to $48,900
Six spots, $50,000, at least one player from each team, kickers and defenses eligible; Showdown's Captain slot costs 1.5 times the flex price for 1.5 times the points.
- Bijan at Captain, $17,700, leaving $32,300.
- Drake London ($8,800) and Kyle Pitts Sr. ($6,600), the Atlanta catches in the script where Bijan has the Falcons ahead.
- Falcons defense ($3,400), the top leverage row, in that same script.
- Jordan Love ($10,000) as the bring-back and Skyy Moore ($2,400), fourth on the value panel at 1.88: $48,900.
Charlie Woerner and Mark Redman top the value panel at $600 and $200 against 2.3 and 0.4 projected points, a small denominator, not a play. The $1,100 left over is a Moore-to-Jahan Dotson swap at $3,000 if you want Atlanta heavier; I keep the board's value row. Love and the Falcons defense fight each other mildly, and that is the accepted cost: the NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub carry this game's ownership as a distribution, and the Falcons-ahead branch is the one the field is underweight. Second entry: Pitts at Captain ($9,900) with Bijan ($11,800), London ($8,800), Love ($10,000), Tucker Kraft ($7,000) and Moore ($2,400), $49,900. Pitts is the third captain leverage row on the board at 6.40%, and the Sims still captain him in 9.3% of lineups at a $7,800 discount to Bijan's Captain price, which keeps Bijan at full flex and buys Kraft. That 3-3 split covers the shootout the first build's Falcons defense is fading. The cheat sheet is free; code CHEAT takes 15% off your first payment on the Stokastic NFL Sims behind it. 21+, play responsibly.
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