FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 3 SNF
By Sam Smith
September 27, 2026
Bo Nix is my MVP for Rams at Broncos, tonight's Week 3 Sunday night game, September 27 at 8:20 p.m. ET in Denver. He leads the MVP Exposures panel at 25.3%, nearly double Kyren Williams' 14.0%, and the No. 1 projection at 17.2 to Matthew Stafford's 15.6. The field has Stafford as the most-owned player at 60.7%; the Stokastic Sims' top-150 exposure, how often a player lands in the 150 highest-ROI simulated lineups, puts Nix first at 59.3% and Stafford second at 54.7%. The Sims are paying for the home quarterback, the field for the visiting one.
The Quick Answer
Nix at MVP costs $16,200 and leaves $43,800 for five AnyFlex spots. Harrison Mevis, the Rams kicker, leads the Leverage Plays panel at 32.1%, four times J.K. Dobbins' 8.1%, and he decides the build. How a kicker ends up there is below.
Tonight's Single Game Board
| Panel | No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AnyFlex Projections | Bo Nix 17.2 | Matthew Stafford 15.6 | Davante Adams 14.4 |
| AnyFlex Ownership | Matthew Stafford 60.7% | Bo Nix 53.9% | Davante Adams 48.1% |
| AnyFlex Exposures | Bo Nix 59.3% | Matthew Stafford 54.7% | Harrison Mevis 48.0% |
| MVP Exposures | Bo Nix 25.3% | Kyren Williams 14.0% | Matthew Stafford 13.3% |
| Top Values | Terrance Ferguson 2.20 | Pat Bryant 1.63 | Bo Nix 1.60 |
| Leverage Plays | Harrison Mevis 32.1% | J.K. Dobbins 8.1% | Broncos 6.1% |
Leverage rows four and five: Mevis again, as an MVP, at 5.6%, and Nix at 5.1%. Mevis sits No. 3 on the AnyFlex Exposures panel at 48.0% and nowhere in the ownership top five. In each simulated game every player scores off the same script, so a kicker at 48.0% exposure means the top-150 lineups lean toward stalled Rams drives; the Broncos defense at 6.1% is the same read from the other sideline. Terrance Ferguson is the reverse: No. 1 value at 2.20 on FanDuel's scoring, 38.5% owned, absent from the exposure panel. Puka Nacua is on no panel. That Ferguson gap is where leverage comes from in a pool this small.
Worked Example: Nix At $16,200
Six slots, a $60,000 cap, the MVP at 1.5 times the salary for 1.5 times the points. Salaries come from tonight's slate feed; the board has none.
Under Nix, Davante Adams ($12,600) and Kyren Williams ($10,400), the two Rams non-quarterbacks among the top five projections, are the bring-back and the Rams touchdowns. Dobbins ($8,800) is the No. 2 leverage row, Mevis ($6,200) the Rams drives that stall, and Pat Bryant ($3,400), No. 2 on the value panel, the cheap sixth slot: $57,600 of $60,000. Jaylen Waddle ($9,600) does not fit beside Adams and Williams under Nix; the NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub show how often the ROI-ranked lineup pool makes that trade.
Stafford is the name I cut from these two builds, not from the slate: the Sims want him in a little over half of the top-150 lineups at 54.7%, the field in three of five at 60.7%, and Nix nearly doubles his 13.3% on the MVP Exposures panel. Ferguson goes for the same reason: the field buys his value and the Sims leave him out.
Second Entry: Mevis At MVP
At the multiplier Mevis costs $9,300, with Nix ($10,800), Williams ($10,400), Adams ($12,600), Dobbins ($8,800) and the Broncos defense ($6,600) underneath: $58,500. A kicker at MVP is a bet on a night of Rams field goals, and the Broncos defense beside him profits from the same stalled drives. Williams and Adams fight that script on purpose, the price of a lineup the field does not build. Five names survive both builds by design: Nix, Williams, Adams, Dobbins and Mevis.
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