FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Kickoff
By Sam Smith
September 9, 2026
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my MVP for the Week 1 Kickoff game, Patriots at Seahawks on Wednesday, September 9, on FanDuel Single Game. His top-150 MVP exposure in the Stokastic Sims is 17.3%, with Jadarian Price second at 16.0% and Drake Maye third at 14.7% though Maye out-projects Smith-Njigba 19.1 to 16.6, and the leverage panel has the field 4.0% light on Smith-Njigba in that slot. The number I keep coming back to is a $5,000 running back, and he is where this build ends.
The Quick Answer
MVP Smith-Njigba, with Price (16.0% MVP exposure, 9.4% MVP-slot leverage) the higher-leverage MVP for a second entry; George Holani (44.0% exposure, 21.4% leverage, the board's best value at 1.55) is the first AnyFlex I fill; trim Rhamondre Stevenson rather than fade him. The full board and a $58,300 build are below.
The Kickoff Board On FanDuel
FanDuel Single Game is six slots under $60,000: one MVP at 1.5 times the salary and 1.5 times the points, five AnyFlex at face value. The Sims play this one game out tens of thousands of times on one shared script, so a back who sits out a blowout's second half is priced into his exposure, not just a median; the Ownership Projections enter as a distribution, and Exp% is top-150 exposure, how often a player appears in the 150 highest sim-ROI lineups.
| Panel | No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AnyFlex Projections (Proj FP) | Drake Maye 19.1 | Sam Darnold 16.9 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba 16.6 |
| AnyFlex Ownership (Own%) | Drake Maye 52.0% | Sam Darnold 49.8% | Rhamondre Stevenson 44.6% |
| AnyFlex Exposures (Exp%) | Drake Maye 58.7% | Sam Darnold 53.3% | George Holani 44.0% |
| MVP Exposures (Exp%) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba 17.3% | Jadarian Price 16.0% | Drake Maye 14.7% |
| Top Values (Value) | George Holani 1.55 | Drake Maye 1.54 | Sam Darnold 1.46 |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | George Holani 21.4% | Jadarian Price (MVP) 9.4% | Drake Maye 6.0% |
Holani is the row. He misses the ownership top five yet sits third in exposure and first on the leverage panel at 21.4%, in a Seattle backfield with Kenneth Walker III in Kansas City since March, Zach Charbonnet on reserve/PUP, and Holani reported for the third-down, short-yardage and goal-line work (The Athletic, relayed by NBC Sports on September 3). A pool this small crowds onto the same five names; he is the one it skipped.
Where The Field Is Over-Invested
Barely anywhere. Maye (52.0% owned, 58.7% exposure) and Darnold (49.8%, 53.3%) are chalk the Sims like more than the field; FanDuel's half-point receptions flatten a receiver's edge over a quarterback, which is why the value panel's top five holds two quarterbacks and no wideout. Stevenson (42.0% exposure on 44.6% ownership) is the chalk name the Sims hold under the field, a trim, not a fade, with TreVeyon Henderson out and Corey Kiner the only complement behind him. A.J. Brown is fifth in projection at 12.4 and on no other panel, so at $10,800 he is the salary I move to Holani and Cooper Kupp. The leverage lives in the MVP slot: Price at 16.0% MVP exposure with 9.4% MVP-slot leverage is the higher-leverage MVP a tournament needs, since an MVP the whole field lands on separates nobody. The Patriots defense is fourth on the leverage panel at 4.1% and $6,600 in the feed, the cheapest bring-back if a build wants two more Seattle pieces; Jason Myers at $6,400 just misses the value panel behind Price at 1.34, playable but not ahead of the backs.
More on this: NFL DFS Hub: Every Live Stokastic NFL Page · DraftKings NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Patriots At Seahawks · FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Picks And Stacks · DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Picks And Stacks · FanDuel PGA DFS Cheat Sheet: Sims, Projections And Ownership
Worked Example: Smith-Njigba To $58,300
FanDuel's MVP costs 1.5 times his salary, the same premium as the DraftKings captain, so what changes against the DraftKings captain build for this game is the $60,000 cap against $50,000 and the lighter scoring. Salaries are the DataHub's FanDuel numbers for this slate.
- MVP Smith-Njigba, $13,000 at face value, $19,500 in the slot, leaving $40,500 for five AnyFlex.
- Sam Darnold ($11,600) throwing to him, and Price ($9,200) so the Seattle script pays twice.
- Holani ($5,000) and Kupp ($5,400), then Hunter Henry ($7,600) as the New England bring-back. The NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub confirm the cheap Seattle pieces fit under one MVP: $58,300 total.
The leverage entry swaps the multiplier: Price at MVP ($13,800) with Maye ($12,400), Smith-Njigba ($13,000), Stevenson ($10,000), Holani ($5,000) and Kupp ($5,400) lands at $59,600, pairs the two backs the field is under, Price and Holani, and keeps Stevenson as an AnyFlex at a trim. That is the single-game case in one lineup: a $5,000 back and a rookie at MVP. The cheat sheet is free; code KICKOFF20 takes 20% off your first payment on the Stokastic NFL Sims behind it, FanDuel or DraftKings. 21+, play responsibly.