FanDuel NFL Showdown Cheat Sheet: Week 3 TNF
By Sam Smith
September 24, 2026
Bijan Robinson is my MVP for Falcons at Packers, tonight's Week 3 Thursday night game, September 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET. He leads the MVP Exposures panel at 34.7%, more than three times Christian Watson's 11.3% in second, and he is the only MVP-labelled row on the leverage panel at 9.3%. The field already has him in the AnyFlex slots in 50.9% of its lineups, so the edge is which slot he lands in.
The Quick Answer
Bijan at MVP costs $19,500 and leaves $40,500 for five AnyFlex spots. Jordan Love, the most-owned player on the board at 51.8%, still leads the leverage panel at 11.2% and goes in every build, with Kyle Pitts Sr. and the Falcons defense the leverage rows underneath him. The full board and both builds are below.
Tonight's Single Game Board
| Panel | No. 1 | No. 2 | No. 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| AnyFlex Projections | Bijan Robinson 20.4 | Jordan Love 17.6 | Christian Watson 13.3 |
| AnyFlex Ownership | Jordan Love 51.8% | Bijan Robinson 50.9% | Michael Penix Jr. 45.4% |
| AnyFlex Exposures | Jordan Love 63.3% | Bijan Robinson 45.3% | Michael Penix Jr. 38.7% |
| MVP Exposures | Bijan Robinson 34.7% | Christian Watson 11.3% | Jordan Love 8.7% |
| Top Values | Bijan Robinson 1.57 | Jordan Love 1.42 | Matthew Golden 1.28 |
| Leverage Plays | Jordan Love 11.2% | Kyle Pitts Sr. 9.9% | Bijan Robinson (MVP) 9.3% |
Leverage rows four and five: Falcons defense 8.7%, Charlie Woerner 7.6%. The board carries MVP exposure but no MVP ownership, so Bijan's 34.7% is a Sims figure with no field number beside it.
The row I keep coming back to is Love at 63.3% top-150 exposure. The field has him at 51.8%, the highest number on the board, and the Stokastic Sims want more of him anyway, which is why the most-owned player on the board also leads the leverage panel. Green Bay has scored all four of its offensive touchdowns through the air this season, and Jayden Reed is out Thursday. Watson, No. 4 on the exposure panel at 32.7%, is the Packer I pair with Love.
Where The Field Is Over-Invested
Michael Penix Jr. is 45.4% owned, third on the board, against 38.7% top-150 exposure, in his first start of the season. Matthew Golden is 34.8% owned and third on the value panel at 1.28, but he does not appear on the AnyFlex Exposures panel at all, whose fifth row is Trey Smack at 29.3%. Bijan is the third one: 50.9% owned in the AnyFlex slots against 45.3% exposure, while the Sims put him at MVP in 34.7% of their lineups. The field plays him, just not in the 1.5x slot as often as the Sims do, which is what his 9.3% MVP leverage row says. He has 48 touches through two games and is the only Falcon to reach the end zone this season; half a point per reception and no yardage bonuses mean the MVP slot is buying the touches, not the catches.
The leverage panel answers with Atlanta, and Atlanta has not run a red-zone play in two games, so its side of this build is bought on Bijan's touches and cheap leverage rows, not touchdown equity. Pitts at 9.9% is second on the panel and off the ownership panel entirely, under the 34.3% fifth row: the Falcons pass-catcher the Sims carry and the field has not found. The Falcons defense at 8.7% is the hedge on the low-scoring branch that red-zone number implies. Woerner at 7.6% is a $1,800 body projected at 1.8 points whose job is the AnyFlex room he frees, not a ceiling. Smack, the Packers kicker, is the one kicker on the board: 34.3% owned, 29.3% exposure and the No. 4 value at 1.27, with no leverage row of his own.
Worked Example: Bijan At $19,500
Six slots, a $60,000 cap, and an MVP slot that costs 1.5 times the salary for 1.5 times the points. Salaries are from tonight's slate feed; the board carries no salary column.
- Bijan at MVP, $19,500, leaving $40,500.
- Love ($12,400), the bring-back and the No. 1 leverage row, with Watson ($10,800), the second-highest MVP exposure at AnyFlex price.
- Pitts ($7,600), the Falcons defense ($6,000) and Woerner ($1,800), leverage rows two, four and five: $58,100 of $60,000.
The $1,900 stays unspent on purpose: Drake London is the only panel row the gap reaches, and he costs $600 more than Watson while projecting 1.5 points less, 11.8 to 13.3. Love and the Falcons defense fight each other mildly, the accepted cost of holding both ends of the leverage panel. The NFL DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub carry this game's ownership as a distribution, and the branch where Atlanta stays close through Bijan while Love throws is the one the field is underweight.
Second Entry: Watson At MVP
Watson at MVP ($16,200) with Love ($12,400), Bijan ($13,000), Pitts ($7,600), Smack ($6,800) and Woerner ($1,800): $57,800. Moving the second-highest MVP exposure up keeps Bijan at his full AnyFlex price and buys the kicker for the script where Green Bay scores through the air again. Love, Pitts and Woerner survive both builds on purpose.
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