Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction: The Upset Runs Through Cousins

Two undefeated teams play in Las Vegas on Sunday, and only one of them trades like it.

The Stokastic Sims land close to Kalshi's price on the Chiefs. Type a Raiders win into the Kalshi Parlay Simulator, though, and the top ticket isn't Ashton Jeanty running it. It's Kirk Cousins throwing it.

Two Unbeatens, One Favorite

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 p.m. ET · Allegiant Stadium · CBS Stokastic Sims: Chiefs win 64%

The Chiefs trade at 67 cents (about -203) and the Raiders at about 34 cents (+194). The score you pick is what changes the combos.

Set The Score

Open the simulator, tap KC @ LV in the week strip, and type the score into Pick Your Game Script. Play calling moves to the style that score makes likeliest; I left it there and kept legs at 3 for all three.

Each card gives you the Sims Price (how often the combo hit across all 10,000 games), the Kalshi price (the three legs bought one at a time) and Current Script (how often it hit in the games that finished near your score).

Walker Finishes It

If the Chiefs win by a touchdown, I think Kenneth Walker III is the one who scores it.

The Chiefs win the games where Walker finds the end zone and Mike Washington Jr. stays under 25 yards, which is why those three sit together.

Cousins Beats KC

Type in a Raiders win and the top card is a passing game:

Vegas wins the games where Cousins finds Bowers and the Chiefs can't lean on Walker. The Jeanty ticket is still on the board, third: NO on Chiefs win by 5+, YES on Ashton Jeanty 50+ rushing yards and NO on Walker 100+ rushing yards, at 31.2 cents in the sims against 19.5 cents leg by leg. That one cashes in a close Chiefs win too.

A Low Score Fades Walker

Drop the total to 37 and the simulator fades the Kansas City run game:

The second card fades the passing game instead, with NO on Patrick Mahomes 2+ passing TDs and NO on Rashee Rice to score in place of the backs.

My Three Tickets

• Chiefs 27-20 (35.5¢ sims, 26.1¢ on Kalshi): NO on Raiders win, NO on Mike Washington Jr. 25+ rushing yards, YES on Kenneth Walker III to score.
• Raiders 27-24 (35.4¢ sims, 26.6¢ on Kalshi): YES on Kirk Cousins 200+ passing yards, NO on Kenneth Walker III 100+ rushing yards, YES on Brock Bowers 60+ receiving yards. My favorite of the three.
• Chiefs 20-17 (38.5¢ sims, 30.4¢ on Kalshi): NO on Chiefs win by 11+, NO on Kenneth Walker III 100+ rushing yards, NO on Emmett Johnson 25+ rushing yards. For anyone who thinks this is a defensive game.

Prices are from 7 a.m. ET on game day, and they'll move before kickoff. Type your own score into KC @ LV on the Kalshi Parlay Simulator and it rebuilds the combos for it. The Ask the Sims box under the controls answers plain-English questions, like "how often does Bowers go over 80 when the Raiders win."

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