Chiefs vs Raiders Kalshi Parlays: Jeanty Is The Upset Leg

Two undefeated teams play in Las Vegas on Sunday, and only one of them trades like it.

The Stokastic Sims land close to Kalshi's 67 cents on the Chiefs. Type a Raiders score into the Kalshi Parlay Simulator, though, and Ashton Jeanty is on both of the top two tickets it builds. One of them cashes even if the Chiefs win a close one.

Two Unbeatens, One Favorite

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) Sunday, October 4 · 4:25 p.m. ET · Allegiant Stadium · CBS

The Chiefs trade at 67 cents (about -203) and the Raiders at 34 cents (+194). The score you pick is what changes the combos.

Set The Score

Open the simulator, tap KC @ LV in the week strip, and type the score into Pick Your Game Script. Play calling moves to the style that score makes likeliest; I left it there and kept legs at 3 for all three.

Each card gives you the Sims Price (how often the combo hit across all 10,000 games) and Current Script (how often it hit in the games that finished near your score). The Kalshi number next to them is the three legs bought separately, multiplied.

Walker Over, Jeanty Under

If the Chiefs win by a touchdown, I think Kenneth Walker III is the reason.

The sims price it at 40 cents (+150). Bought leg by leg on Kalshi it's 34.2 cents (+193). In games that finished near 27-20 it cashed 56% of the time. Walker getting 70 and Jeanty staying under 80 is what a Chiefs win looks like in these sims.

Jeanty Wins It

Type in a Raiders win and both backs flip sides. The first card cashes in a close Chiefs win too:

The sims price it at 32.1 cents (+212). Leg by leg on Kalshi it's 19.8 cents (+404). Near a 27-24 Raiders win, it cashed 61% of the time.

The second card takes the Raiders straight up: YES on Raiders win (34¢), YES on Ashton Jeanty 50+ rushing yards (62¢) and NO on Kenneth Walker III 90+ rushing yards (56¢). The sims price it at 23.7 cents (+322), against 11.8 cents (+747) leg by leg. When Vegas wins in these sims, Jeanty usually has his 50.

A Low Score Fades Mahomes

Drop the total to 37 and the backs fall off the top card. It fades the Chiefs passing game instead:

The sims price it at 31.7 cents (+215), against 20.1 cents (+397) leg by leg.

My Three Tickets

• Chiefs 27-20 (40¢ sims, 34.2¢ on Kalshi): NO on Raiders win, NO on Ashton Jeanty 80+ rushing yards, YES on Kenneth Walker III 70+ rushing yards. The game the price expects.
• Raiders 27-24 (32.1¢ sims, 19.8¢ on Kalshi): NO on Chiefs win by 5+, YES on Ashton Jeanty 50+ rushing yards, NO on Kenneth Walker III 100+ rushing yards. My favorite of the three, because it cashes in a close Chiefs win too.
• Chiefs 20-17 (31.7¢ sims, 20.1¢ on Kalshi): NO on Chiefs win by 11+, NO on Patrick Mahomes 2+ passing TDs, NO on Rashee Rice to score. For anyone who thinks this is a defensive game.

Prices are from Saturday night, October 3, and they'll move before kickoff. Type your own score into KC @ LV on the Kalshi Parlay Simulator and it rebuilds the combos for it. Ask the Sims under the controls answers plain-English questions, like "how often does Jeanty run for 100 when the Raiders win."

Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.