Colts vs Commanders Kalshi Parlays: Pick The Score First

Washington is starting Marcus Mariota in London, and the Colts are priced like that settles it. I don't think it settles much, and neither do the Stokastic Sims.

So I opened the Kalshi Parlay Simulator, typed in three final scores I can see happening, and kept the best three-leg combo it built for each. The legs change more than you'd think when the score does.

Mariota Starts In London

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs. Washington Commanders (1-2) Sunday, October 4 · 9:30 a.m. ET · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · NFL Network Stokastic Sims: Colts win 58% · the sims have Jayden Daniels out and Marcus Mariota starting

Terry McLaurin is doubtful too. The Commanders trade at 35 cents to win on Kalshi (about +186). The Stokastic Sims have the Colts a smaller favorite than that.

Here are the three scores I plugged in:

Set The Score

Open the simulator, tap IND @ WAS in the week strip, and type your score into Pick Your Game Script. Play calling moves to the style that score makes likeliest; I left it there and set legs to 3. The combos below rebuild for that score.

Every card shows three prices. The yellow Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit across all 10,000 games. Kalshi is what the three legs cost bought one at a time. Current Script is how often it hit in the games that finished close to your score, so it's the price if you're right about the game.

Washington Stays Small

All three legs say the same thing: Washington's offense stays small.

Together the three legs hit more often than their Kalshi prices multiply out to, and two-thirds of the time if the game lands near 24-20.

The second card swaps the total and the spread for NO on Commanders win and NO on Terry McLaurin to score. With McLaurin doubtful, I'd wait for inactives before buying that one.

Croskey-Merritt Carries The Upset

Flip the score and the first card is the careful version: NO on Colts win by 6+ (54¢), NO on Over 52.5 total points (69¢) and NO on Jonathan Taylor 110+ rushing yards (68¢).

The third card is the one I'd play if I believed in the upset:

Those legs travel together. Washington wins the games where Taylor gets held under 110 and its own back gets to 50.

Taylor Drives The Shootout

In the shootout, Taylor flips from a fade to the engine. The first card is NO on Commanders win by 5+ (80¢), YES on Jonathan Taylor 80+ rushing yards (61¢) and NO on Jacory Croskey-Merritt 70+ rushing yards (62¢).

The second card drops the Taylor yardage for YES on Jonathan Taylor to score (68¢, -213) and moves the spread to NO on Commanders win by 4+ (77¢, -335), which I like better in a 58-point game.

My Three Tickets

• Colts 24-20 (37.1¢ sims): NO on Over 52.5 total points, NO on Commanders win by 5+, NO on Marcus Mariota 2+ passing TDs. Built on Washington staying small.
• Commanders 23-20 (26.6¢ sims): YES on Commanders win, NO on Jonathan Taylor 110+ rushing yards, YES on Jacory Croskey-Merritt 50+ rushing yards. A small ticket on the upset.
• Colts 31-27 (38.6¢ sims): NO on Commanders win by 4+, NO on Jacory Croskey-Merritt 70+ rushing yards, YES on Jonathan Taylor to score. Only if you see a shootout.

Prices are from Saturday night, October 3, and Kalshi prices move all weekend. Your score won't be mine, so open IND @ WAS in the Kalshi Parlay Simulator, type yours in, and see what it builds. The Ask the Sims box under the controls takes a question in plain English, like "how often does Jonathan Taylor score twice."

Stokastic Sims are estimates, not guarantees.