Colts vs Commanders Prediction: Mariota Keeps London Close

Washington is starting Marcus Mariota in London, and the Colts are priced like that settles it. I don't think it settles much, and neither do the Stokastic Sims.

So I opened the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator on game morning, typed in three final scores I can see happening, and kept the best three-leg combo it built for each. I'd play all three. The tool also shows you the cards to pass on, and one score has two of them.

Mariota Starts In London

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs. Washington Commanders (1-2) Sunday, October 4 · 9:30 a.m. ET · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · NFL Network Stokastic Sims: Colts win 59% · the sims have Jayden Daniels out and Marcus Mariota starting

Terry McLaurin is questionable. The Commanders trade at about 35 cents to win on Kalshi (+186). The Stokastic Sims have the Colts a smaller favorite than that.

Here are the three scores I plugged in:

Set The Score

Open the simulator, tap IND @ WAS in the week strip, and type your score into Pick Your Game Script. Play calling moves to the style that score makes likeliest; I left it there and set legs to 3. The combos below rebuild for that score.

Every card shows three prices. The yellow Sims Price is how often the whole combo hit across all 10,000 games. Kalshi is what the three legs cost bought one at a time. Current Script is how often it hit in the games that finished close to your score, so it's the price if you're right about the game.

Taylor Wins The Ground

All three legs say the same thing: Indianapolis owns the run game.

Those legs travel together. When Taylor gets going, Washington's back doesn't, and a team that can't run doesn't win by four.

Croskey-Merritt Carries The Upset

Flip the score and the first card doesn't even need Washington to win:

Washington keeps it close in the games where Taylor gets held short of 110 and its own back gets to 50, and the ticket cashes in a close Colts win too. That's my favorite of the three.

Top Shootout Card Only

Type in 31-27 and the top card keeps two legs from my main ticket:

Taylor's yards and a quiet day for Kaytron Allen both point to a Colts win, even with points on the board. That one I'd play.

The two cards under it go the other way. Their legs bought separately cost more than the sims make the whole combo, so I'd skip both:

My Three Tickets

• Colts 24-20 (41.1¢ sims): NO on Commanders win by 4+, YES on Jonathan Taylor 70+ rushing yards, NO on Jacory Croskey-Merritt 70+ rushing yards. Built on Taylor owning the ground.
• Commanders 23-20 (33.1¢ sims): NO on Colts win by 5+, NO on Jonathan Taylor 110+ rushing yards, YES on Jacory Croskey-Merritt 50+ rushing yards. It cashes in an upset or a close Colts win.
• Colts 31-27 (35.8¢ sims): NO on Commanders win by 4+, YES on Jonathan Taylor 70+ rushing yards, NO on Kaytron Allen 15+ rushing yards. The top card only.

Prices are from 8 a.m. ET on game day, and Kalshi prices move right up to kickoff. Your score won't be mine, so open IND @ WAS in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator, type yours in, and see what it builds. The Ask the Sims box under the controls takes a question in plain English, like "how often does Jonathan Taylor score twice."

More on this: Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction: The Upset Runs Through Cousins · Kalshi Parlay Simulator: Odds For Every Combo · Eagles vs Commanders Odds: Kalshi's Two Boards Disagree · Cowboys vs Texans Same Game Parlay: Williams Held Under 70 · Falcons vs Saints Anytime TD Picks: Fade Kamara, Bet Miller