Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction: Collins TD at +170 in London

Nico Collins to score is my bet for London: +170 on FanDuel (+165 on DraftKings), and he scores in 45.2% of our Sims. He has three touchdowns in the three games he's played this year.

The Jaguars are 4-1 and back in London a week after beating the Eagles at Tottenham on a 57-yard field goal at the gun. This time it's Wembley. The Texans are 1-4, but they just beat Tennessee 26-3. The Sims and the market agree on the winner: Jacksonville, a little more than half the time. Where they disagree is who scores.

The Sims are 10,000 runs of the game made Tuesday, Oct. 13, at 4:03 a.m. CT, with David Montgomery left out (he's doubtful with a groin injury, and DeMeco Ryans called him week-to-week). Prices were checked Tuesday between 7:00 and 7:10 a.m. CT; the parlay prices are DraftKings' own quotes, and "Expected" on the answer cards is the Sims' guess at them. Kickoff is Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium on NFL Network, and inactives post at 8 a.m. ET.

Last week, readers sent Ask The Sims more than 1,000 questions with the Jaguars' London game pulled up. It's free, it takes any NFL game, and you can ask about this one right here:

Collins Scores in 45% of the Sims

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Readers asked "best anytime TD bets in this game" about last week's London game too. I asked it for Sunday, and Collins was the best value among the players likeliest to score.

He missed Weeks 2 and 3. He's scored in two of the three games he's played, twice against Dallas. Tank Dell and Jayden Higgins are both on injured reserve, so Stroud doesn't have many other places to go.

The Sims say +170 is too long for the Texans' best receiver, and I'd bet it down to +121. FanDuel has the best number right now; it's +165 on DraftKings.

You don't need Houston to win for this one to cash. He scores in 54.1% of the Sims the Texans win and 37.9% of the ones they lose. If you do like the Texans, ask about Collins and a Houston win together: +314 in the Sims, and DraftKings quotes the pair at +405.

Stroud to Collins Pays +282

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This is the Texans combo I'd play. When Stroud throws two touchdowns in the Sims, Collins catches at least one 70% of the time. The two land together in 28.3% of the Sims (+254), and DraftKings quotes the pair at +282.

Stroud on his own is the wrong side, though. He has two touchdown passes in a game twice in five tries, and +122 is too short for that. The pair works because Collins is the one catching them.

Take +254 or longer. FanDuel only had it at +252 this morning, so this one's a DraftKings ticket.

Lawrence Throws Two in Most Jaguars Wins

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Lawrence has thrown two or more touchdowns in three of five games, including both scores to Parker Washington against the Eagles last week. The Sims have him doing it a little less than half the time, and closer to 60% when Jacksonville wins.

That makes it my Jaguars bet. FanDuel's +144 is the best number I found (+132 on DraftKings), and I'd bet it down to +109.

Lawrence to Washington Pays +325

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Readers asked some version of "best parlay if the Jags win" 22 times about last week's London game. This week, the Sims' top 3-leg answer is the Jaguars, Lawrence 2+ touchdown passes and Lawrence 210+ yards, and DraftKings quotes it at +282. That's about what the Sims make it, so I'm not playing it.

I'd rather pair Lawrence with the receiver who caught both of his touchdowns at Tottenham. Lawrence 2+ TD passes and a Washington touchdown land together in 27.4% of the Sims (+265), and DraftKings quotes the pair at +325. It's +288 on FanDuel, so take DraftKings.

Last week's most-asked touchdown question was "If the Jaguars win, does Bhayshul Tuten score a TD?" He's +120 this week. He ran 22 times against the Eagles, but the Sims give him about 14 carries and have him scoring about a third of the time. When the Sims and the book are that far apart, I leave the bet alone.

The Bets

• Nico Collins anytime TD at +170 on FanDuel (+165 DraftKings). He scores in 45.2% of the Sims, even in more than a third of Houston's losses. Good down to +121.
• Trevor Lawrence 2+ TD passes at +144 on FanDuel. He's done it in three of five games. Good down to +109.
• Small: Collins TD + Stroud 2+ TD passes at +282 on DraftKings. 28.3% in the Sims.
• Small: Lawrence 2+ TD passes + Washington TD at +325 on DraftKings. 27.4% in the Sims.

Kalshi and Polymarket only have the game lines up for London so far, and the Sims have those priced about right: the Texans win 43.4% of the Sims and cost about 44¢ (+127) on Polymarket and 45.7¢ (+119) on Kalshi. When the touchdown markets go up, ask the Collins question there too.

Ask The Sims also answers during the game. At Tottenham last Sunday, a reader asked in the 1st quarter whether Parker Washington would finish with 6+ catches, 2+ touchdowns and 100+ yards. The live Sims said 19.2% (+422). He finished with 6 catches, 124 yards and two scores.

Got your own question, like how often Woody Marks scores if Montgomery sits? Ask The Sims about Texans vs. Jaguars. It's free, and it takes any NFL game this week.