FedEx Open de France Odds: No Favorite Above a Dime

The FedEx Open de France odds have no clear favorite: Ludvig Åberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick each trade on Kalshi at under a dime to win at Le Golf National from September 24 to 27. Put the three of them together and they are still well short of even money, which is the market saying the winner is probably none of them. The last three editions on this course say the same thing.

No favorite above a dime

FedEx Open de France winner market on Kalshi, mid-quotes as of September 22, 2026. 150 golfers are listed.

Read the tee sheet before the ladder. A golfer who withdraws or does not tee off settles No, and five listed names — including Thorbjørn Olesen, Martin Kaymer and Tom McKibbin — are not in the published tee times for the 144-man field. A sixth contract carries a placeholder name, Eugenio-DUP Chacarra-DUP, sitting alongside Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra's own contract. Those are six rows that cannot win, and the placeholder is still quoted at a penny and a half.

Kalshi lists a Yes contract for each golfer, and each pays $1 only if its golfer wins the event at Le Golf National. Åberg tops the board at nine and a half cents, about a one in 10 shot, with Fleetwood beside him and Fitzpatrick a cent back. Three single-digit favorites in a 144-man field is a board with no opinion at the top.

Recent winners here were not the names at the top

The three most recent editions on this course went to Guido Migliozzi in 2022, Ryo Hisatsune in 2023 and Dan Bradbury in 2024, each at 14 to 16 under par. Migliozzi and Bradbury are both in the field. Jeff Winther finished tied for second here in both 2023 and 2024, and in August he won the Danish Golf Championship in front of home fans. Defending champion Michael Kim's title last year came at Saint-Nom-la-Bretèche, a different course.

Winther's two near-misses suggest the layout suits a steady DP World Tour regular as much as a star, and the field is full of them.

Fleetwood's record at Le Golf National

In July 2017, Fleetwood won the Open de France on this course by a stroke over Peter Uihlein, closing with a bogey-free 66. A year later he came back for the Ryder Cup, and he and Francesco Molinari became the first European pair to win all four of their matches on the Friday and Saturday.

The course he knows has changed. This is the first Open de France on the redesigned Albatros: the DP World Tour's preview says architect Russell Talley rebuilt holes four, five and six after Paris Metro Line 18 construction took part of the property, adding 17 bunkers and refining several greens.

His 2026 season is the problem. Fleetwood has no win in 2026; his best finishes are three ties for fourth, at Pebble Beach, the Memorial and The Open, and he missed the cut at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, the week before this event.

Fitzpatrick brings the best 2026 season

Fitzpatrick is fourth in the Official World Golf Ranking, the highest-ranked player in the field. He has won three times on the PGA Tour in 2026, counting the Zurich Classic team event, and finished tied for sixth at Wentworth on the week Fleetwood went home early. His April win at the RBC Heritage came in a playoff against Scottie Scheffler.

Åberg and Viktor Hovland, both inside the world top 20, are the other two headliners. When the DP World Tour announced the field on September 9, it billed all four as European Ryder Cup players. The same announcement added Ryan Gerard and Cameron Smith, and noted that Kim was the first American to win the event since Barry Jaeckel in 1972.

Among the three at the top, Fitzpatrick's year is the strongest case, with the caveat that Fleetwood's best golf in France came on this course, even with three holes rebuilt.

What the models said

We also put the whole field to the models without showing them Kalshi's numbers, as a check on the facts above. Seven returned a complete card, and all seven put Fitzpatrick first, ahead of Fleetwood, Åberg and Hovland. They gave those four together between a quarter and two fifths of the total chance, and split hardest on the tail: their estimates for everyone outside the 39 players with the strongest records — world ranking, 2026 wins, past results in this event — ran from about one in ten to more than one in four.

What to watch at Le Golf National

• Withdrawals. Any listed golfer who pulls out before teeing off settles No; the tour's field page and tee sheet are the place to check.
• Fleetwood's opening two rounds. Friday's cut will show whether the Wentworth miss was one bad week or a trend.
• Fitzpatrick's start. A fast start from the highest-ranked man in the field would narrow the race more than any other single result.

Market price from Kalshi as of the date above. Prices change constantly. Nothing here is a prediction of fact, and it is not financial advice.

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