US Open Women's Odds: The Draw Is Out, The Price Isn't Moving

At 9:44:46 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro were on court at Arthur Ashe Stadium deciding who would play Aryna Sabalenka in Thursday's semifinal. In that second, somebody bought 48,305 contracts of Sabalenka to win the 2026 US Open women's singles title at 38 cents, in one fill, the largest of several that printed in the same second. Across the whole of Tuesday before this page's afternoon pull, her contract had traded 73,220 contracts, a day that included the half hour, described in Tuesday's edition of this page, in which the crowd sold her to 8 cents and bought her back to 40; this one print was two thirds of that. Sabalenka was not playing. She had been in the semifinal since the early afternoon. The largest bet of the night on this board went to the woman waiting for the winner. As of September 9, 2026, at 2:55 a.m. ET, her contract is 38 cents bid, 39 cents ask.

Pegula won, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, by ESPN's account a match that started nearly 90 minutes after its 7 p.m. slot because the day session ran long. Kalshi closed Navarro's title contract at 10:59 p.m. and settled it No six minutes later, the 25th of the event's 31 contracts to go to zero. Six are left. The two remaining quarterfinals are played today: Elena Rybakina against Qinwen Zheng first on Ashe at 11:30 a.m. ET, then Coco Gauff against Mirra Andreeva, not before 12:30 p.m. When this page was rebuilt on August 28, eight AI models that never saw a price argued the market had the favorite too high and the No. 2 seed too low; since Monday the board has been repriced by results twice a day. This edition is about three things: where Tuesday night's money actually went, what the Sabalenka-Pegula semifinal was already priced at before Pegula had left the court, and the one price on this board that now asks the most of its owner. That is Gauff at 22 cents, who has to win two matches to reach the final Sabalenka is one win from, and the page ends there.

A six-name board with two matches left is a set of paths through named opponents, and when one leg resolves, as Navarro's did when the match ended, every other price has to move or explain why it did not. Our guide to reading a contract price as a projection covers the translation if the cents are new to you, and how these contracts compare to a pick'em app covers the mechanics.

The Board As Of Wednesday Morning

Kalshi lists 31 contracts under this event and 25 of them have settled No. Six are live. The table below is one pull at 2:55 a.m. ET on Wednesday, September 9, after the Pegula match and before the day session. The market-share column divides each midpoint by the sum of all six midpoints, which is 103.0 cents, because a dollar of outcomes cannot cost $1.03 and the raw cents overstate everybody by about that much.

"Panel, Aug 28" is the number the eight-model panel gave each woman on August 28, price-blind, when 24 contracts and a field bucket were still alive; those numbers are frozen and graded in public. "Panel, survivors only" takes the same six frozen numbers and divides each by their combined 52.6 points, so they add to 100 like the market column does. It is the honest way to compare a pre-tournament board with a six-name one, and it carries an honest weakness: it assumes the panel's ranking of these six would not have changed after watching the tournament, which it never saw.

Prices as of September 9, 2026, 2:55 a.m. ET, from one pull of Kalshi's public market data. Panel numbers are the medians of the panel's August 28 second pass and have not been re-scored; the survivors-only column is arithmetic on them, not a new opinion. Wednesday's start times are from Yardbarker's order of play; the Pegula result is from ESPN.

More live boards from the same panel: US Open men's title (Zverev 32¢/33¢) · Rybakina-Zheng match market (Rybakina 73¢/74¢) · both US Open boards side by side

Read the two right-hand columns against the market and start with the thing that changed overnight. On Tuesday afternoon this page noted that the market and the survivors-only panel agreed, to a tenth of a point, on which half of the bracket the trophy comes from: 47.3% to 47.4% for the top half. Pegula's win moved that. The market now gives Sabalenka and Pegula 48.5% of the title between them, with Sabalenka up two cents and Pegula up one since the afternoon, and the panel's rebase, which dropped Navarro's 0.8 points from the denominator, gives the top half 46.6%. Two points apart, and the two points are the net of a market that likes Sabalenka seven points more than the panel does and Pegula five points less. The bottom four get 51.5% from the market and 53.4% from the panel.

Inside the bottom half is where the six-name table earns its keep. The market has Gauff and Rybakina three points apart at 21.8 and 18.9; the panel's survivors-only numbers split them 26.6 to 18.1. Rybakina's row is now the closest thing on the board to agreement, a 0.9-point gap on the name that was the widest gap in the panel's favor on this page for 12 days. Gauff's row is a 4.8-point gap in the panel's favor, second only to Pegula's 5.0, and unlike Pegula's it is attached to a woman who still has two matches to play before the final. Hold that, because Tuesday night's tape is where the market's version of Gauff came from.

Where Tuesday Night's Money Went

Across all 31 contracts, 717,411 contracts changed hands in the 24 hours ending at 2:55 a.m. Wednesday, against 5,799,942 traded in the event's life, so one day in eight of the market's entire history happened between Tuesday morning and Wednesday's small hours. Here is where it went, contract by contract, with the price from this page's Tuesday 2:56 p.m. pull as the reference point.

Contracts traded are Kalshi's rolling 24-hour volume figure per contract at 2:55 a.m. ET, so every row is a rolling window and the Sabalenka and Noskova rows still include Tuesday afternoon's match; times and fill sizes are from each contract's public trade tape, in Eastern time.

The row I keep coming back to is the second one, and specifically one second of it. Sabalenka's contract traded 83,776 contracts between the afternoon pull and this one, 71% of them buyers, at a volume-weighted 38.0 cents. 54,888 of those printed in the 9 p.m. hour, 99% buyers, and 53,383 of those printed in the one second that carried the fill above. That fill was $18,356 at risk to collect the face value of the contracts if she wins two more matches, and it was placed while the identity of the first of those two opponents was still being settled on court. There is a second half to it: at 1:59:06 a.m., 20,000 contracts of Sabalenka were sold at the same 38 cents, 19,533 of them in one fill, and in the same second 3,109 contracts of Rybakina were sold at 20. Whether that is the same account trimming or a different one taking the other side is not something the public tape says. What it does say is that the biggest buyer and the biggest seller of the night on this board both chose 38 cents for Sabalenka, and the price has not left 38 and 39 since. The book this morning has 81,091 contracts offered at 39 and 64,583 bid across 38 and 37: size waiting on both sides, at a price the night's largest trades agreed on.

Navarro's row is the other half of the same night. Her title contract traded 173,094 contracts in the 24 hours, the most of any contract on the board for the second pull running, and 592,340 in its life, more than any live name except Gauff. The buying came before the match: at 4:55:41 p.m., 31,214 contracts were bought at 3 cents inside one second, in fills including 10,000, 5,000, 5,000 and 4,868, and 9,364 more went through at 3 cents at 6:30 p.m. The 4:55 p.m. buying was about $936 at risk on a 26th seed who had never beaten the woman across the net; The Sports Encounter's match report has Pegula 5-0 against her after Tuesday. The contract printed 4 cents in the 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. hours, its high since the afternoon, and 1 cent at 10:58 p.m., its last print. The 559,848 contracts still open when Kalshi closed it a minute later settled at zero.

The price history in one line: on Tuesday night the crowd bought the woman who had already won, sold the woman who plays today, and paid 3 cents for a 26th seed right up until she lost.

Pegula's own tape reads like a match report with the score torn off. The pre-match money was buyers: 3,846 contracts at 11 cents at 7:31 p.m. and 12,580 at 11 cents at 7:42, the biggest fill on her side of the night, both before ESPN's delayed start. The 8 p.m. hour traded between 8 and 11 cents, and at 8:58 p.m., 1,226 contracts changed hands, all but 3% of them sellers, touching 8 before the minute closed at 10. An early dip to 5 cents came at 9:08 p.m., in a minute where 1,098 contracts changed hands and only 18% were buyers; Navarro, per ESPN, took the first set 6-3. The contract traded between 5 and 10 cents through the 9 p.m. hour until 9:59 p.m., when 9,980 contracts were bought between 9 and 11 cents inside one minute, 7,189 of them in one second at 9:59:35; the second set, per ESPN, went to Pegula 6-4, and the price history does not say which point the buying followed. Twice after that, at 10:21 and 10:40 p.m., sellers pushed through a thin bid stack, to 3 cents in the first minute and 4 in the second; the 10:21 minute closed at 7 cents and the 10:40 minute at 10. Those prints are not the market's opinion of Pegula; they are what a 2,000-contract market sell does to a book that has a few hundred contracts bid at each cent from 7 down to 4, which is what the book looks like this morning. From 10:33 p.m. the contract climbed, 13, 14, 15, and printed its high of 16 cents at 10:48, three minutes after Kalshi closed the match market at 10:45:28 p.m. It finished the night at 13 and 14 cents, 1,843 contracts were sold between 12 and 14 in the 1 a.m. hour, and it is 11 bid, 12 ask this morning: one cent above where it was before she played.

Gauff's row is the one the Gauff section below is built on, so the price history goes here and the argument goes there. Her contract traded 33,057 contracts between the pulls, and only 32% of them were buyers. Half of the total, 16,864 contracts, printed in the 4 p.m. hour on Tuesday, 96% of it sellers, and the shape of it is unmistakable: 1,143 contracts sold at 22 cents at 4:41:00 p.m., a 2,000-contract fill at 22 20 seconds later, and then six more fills of exactly 2,000 contracts each at 22 between 4:45:35 and 4:46:33 p.m., one roughly every ten seconds. The selling worked more than 15,000 contracts of Gauff out of the book inside six minutes, at the bid, on the afternoon before she plays. The buying that followed in the 9, 10 and 11 p.m. hours ran 85% to 97% buyers but totaled about 7,100 contracts, and it never traded above 23. The book this morning shows why: 836 contracts bid at 22 and 136 at 21, then 77,542 offered at 23 and 55,847 at 24. At the two best bids there are 972 contracts of demand; at the two best offers, 133,389 contracts of supply. Sabalenka's book, two rows up, has 64,583 contracts at its two best bids. The market is not saying Gauff loses today. It is saying it has a great deal of Gauff to sell to anyone who wants to pay a cent more for her, and almost nobody does.

The two cheap contracts finish the table. Andreeva's tape had exactly one event, 14,700 contracts bought at 9 cents in one second at 10:17 p.m., and her bid this morning is 7, so that buyer is two cents underwater before she has hit a ball; 59,220 contracts are offered at 8 above her. Zheng's is the opposite shape: 36,168 contracts since the afternoon, 98% of them buyers, every one at 3 or 4 cents, and the deepest bid on the entire board, 41,771 contracts at 3 cents, sitting under a qualifier. Between 3 and 4 cents there are about 115,000 contracts resting on whether she beats the No. 2 seed at 11:30 this morning.

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The Gauff Price Is A Two-Match Path

Coco Gauff is 22 cents bid, 23 ask to win the title, a 21.8% share of the six-name board, and the price has not left those two cents since Tuesday afternoon. What has changed is what the price has to pay for. Sabalenka is one win from the final. Gauff is two: Andreeva today, then whichever of Rybakina and Zheng comes out of the 11:30 match, and only then the final against the top half. The match market Kalshi listed for today has Gauff at 65 cents bid, 66 ask to beat Andreeva, with 62,277 contracts traded on her side against 12,913 on Andreeva's since it was listed on Monday night, and Andreeva at 35 and 36.

Divide the one by the other and you get the number this section is about. A 22.5-cent title midpoint over a 65.5-cent match midpoint says the market has Gauff at 34.4% to win the title if she is standing in the semifinal on Thursday. Do the same sum for everyone else with a match to play and the board sorts itself: Sabalenka is 61.6% to win the title if she beats Pegula, because from there she has one match left; Pegula is 30.7% if she beats Sabalenka; Rybakina is 26.5% from the semifinal onward if she beats Zheng, Andreeva 21.1%, Zheng 12.7%. Gauff's 34.4 from the semifinal is the highest conditional number in the bottom half by eight points, which is the market saying she is the bottom half's best player, and it is well under Sabalenka's 61.6 from the final, which is the market saying two matches are a lot more than one.

The panel's frozen numbers say the market is a little light on her. Rebased on the six survivors, the eight seats' August 28 blend of 14.0% becomes 26.6%, against the market's 21.8, a gap of 4.8 points in the panel's favor and the second-widest pro-panel gap on the board behind Pegula's 5.0. Every seat had Gauff between 13.0 and 14.5 in August, and no seat had her above Sabalenka. The market agrees on the ordering and disagrees on the distance: 15.6 points between the top two by market share, 3.8 by the panel's rebase. The record the panel carries applies here as it did on Tuesday: across 80,316 graded panel calls against 3,762 settled markets, when this panel disagrees with a Kalshi price by ten cents or more, the market has been right about 70% of the time, rising to 84% once the gap reaches 30 cents. A 4.8-point gap is below the band those figures describe, and the record says nothing either way about it.

What the price history adds is the part the arithmetic cannot. Tuesday's 2,000-contract clips at 22 cents and this morning's 133,389 contracts offered at the two best prices are a market that is long Gauff and would like to be less long. The fee makes the buyer's side of that trade plain: Kalshi's fee at a 23-cent ask is 7% of 0.23 times 0.77, which is $0.0124 per contract and rounds up to 2 cents, so a buyer at 23 is paying 25 cents for a dollar and needs Gauff to be better than a 25% title shot to be paid for the risk. The panel's rebased 26.6 clears that by 1.6 points. It cleared it with numbers written before Gauff had won a match here; her ten-match winning streak, by Tennis Now's count after the Jovic match, and her 5-0 record against Andreeva, per Yardbarker, are things the panel never saw. So is the match market's 35 cents for Andreeva, which is a crowd giving a 19-year-old who has never taken a match off Gauff a better than one-in-three chance today. That is arithmetic and a description of a book, not a recommendation; the panel's own record says the crowd is usually right when the two disagree by a lot, and this is not a lot.

Pegula, Again: She Got Past Navarro, And The Price Barely Noticed

On Tuesday afternoon this page called Jessica Pegula the line the panel still argues with, at 10 cents bid against a survivors-only 15.9. She then went out and did the first of the two things the price required of her, and the market moved her one cent, to 11 bid and 12 ask. Rebased on six survivors the panel's number is 16.2%, the market's share 11.2, and the 5.0-point gap is the widest in the panel's favor on the board, a tenth of a point narrower than it was when she still had Navarro in front of her.

The match itself explains why the market was slow to pay her. By The Sports Encounter's numbers she lost the first set 6-3, won the next two 6-4 and 6-3 in about two hours, won 111 points to Navarro's 102, converted 5 of 12 break points to Navarro's 4 of 12, hit 6 aces to Navarro's 8 and 8 double faults to Navarro's 7, and won 53 receiving points to 42. It was a match she had to find rather than control, and her title contract, which printed 5 cents in the 9 o'clock hour and 3 cents in the 10 o'clock hour, spent most of the night saying so.

Kalshi listed the semifinal at 10:55 p.m., ten minutes after it closed the quarterfinal match market at 10:45 and five minutes before it closed Navarro's title contract. The first print on Sabalenka's side was 71 cents at 10:58 p.m., into a book with almost nothing in it; 713 contracts traded on that side before midnight and the price was sold down to a 59-cent low and 60 by the end of the night. Wednesday's early hours put 4,604 more contracts through it between 60 and 63, the two largest fills 1,649 bought at 60 at 1:25 a.m. and 1,538 bought at 63 at 2:22 a.m., and it sits at 62 bid, 63 ask this morning, with Pegula at 37 and 38. Read against the title board, that is the market saying Pegula is a 30.7% title shot if she wins Thursday, her 11.5-cent midpoint over 37.5, and Sabalenka a 61.6% one if Sabalenka wins instead. Put the panel's rebased 16.2 on the same past-Sabalenka basis and it becomes about 43 against the market's 31, though that sum borrows the market's match price to stretch the panel's title number, and it should be read as a comparison, not a forecast.

The reason the market wants 63 cents for Sabalenka in that match is on the record. Sabalenka beat Pegula in the 2024 final here, 7-5, 7-5 by The Sports Encounter's account, and in the 2025 semifinal, where ESPN notes Pegula dropped the first set. ESPN also notes the two are the fourth pair of women in the Open era to meet in the semifinals or later at three consecutive US Opens. Pegula's own read, to ESPN: "To me, I think it's fun to look at the rivalry we've had. She's gotten me here the last couple of years. I have been able to beat her a few times, maybe on a smaller stage, so I think that's going to be kind of a hurdle for me to get over." The panel's August case for her was the geometry of the draw, five of the six best players in the bottom half and a cheap route to the final for the top two seeds there. The geometry has held exactly. What is left is the hurdle she named, and the market prices it at 37 cents.

Rybakina, Zheng, And The No. 1 Ranking, First On Ashe

The 11:30 a.m. match is the one with the ranking on it. Rybakina, Yardbarker reports, would take the No. 1 spot in the WTA rankings for the first time with a win over Zheng, and leads their head to head 4-1. Kalshi's match market has her at 73 cents bid, 74 ask, and the price history on it is unusually steady for this fortnight: the first print at 5:35 p.m. Monday was 82 cents into an empty book, it touched 88 that evening and was 73 by the end of the night, and across 34,121 contracts on Tuesday and 9,660 in Wednesday's small hours it has not left 71 to 74. Zheng is 27 and 28.

Her title row is the quietest argument on the page now, and that is the news. For 12 days the widest gap in the panel's favor on this board was Rybakina: 5 cents bid on August 28 against a panel 9.5%, every seat between 9.0 and 9.9, every seat naming the ankle she retired with in Cincinnati as the reason the market was cheaper than they were. The tournament settled it in the panel's direction, four rounds without dropping a set and 25 games conceded by the WTA's count, and the market went past the panel on Monday. This morning it has come back to meet it: 18.9% market share against a survivors-only 18.1, a 0.9-point gap, after a night in which her contract traded 28,093 contracts, 42% of them buyers, and slipped from 20 and 21 to 19 and 20 on a 5,000-contract sale at 12:47 a.m. and the 3,109 sold in the same second as the Sabalenka block at 1:59. Divided by the match price, her 19.5-cent midpoint says the market has her at 26.5% to win the title from the semifinal onward, eight points under Gauff's conditional number and the clearest statement the board makes about how it ranks the two women most likely to meet on Thursday.

Zheng is the contract the panel priced at a tenth of a percent on August 28, when she was ranked 121st and had a qualifying final still to play. She won it, then beat Madison Keys from 5-0 down in a third set and Iga Swiatek from 5-0 down in a first set, 7-5, 6-3, and the market has her at 3 cents bid, 4 ask, a 3.4% share, which divided by her 27.5-cent match midpoint is 12.7% to win the title if she beats Rybakina. The survivors-only column gives her 0.2%, and that is the one number in the table that should be read as meaningless rather than as a disagreement: it is the arithmetic of a pre-qualifying opinion, not a view on the woman who has beaten Keys and Swiatek in consecutive rounds. The price history treats her more seriously than the panel did. Since Tuesday afternoon her contract has traded 36,168 contracts, 98% of them buyers, and the 41,771 contracts bid at 3 cents this morning are the largest single resting bid on any contract on the board, larger than any one level under Sabalenka. Our Zheng-Rybakina page has the match market's history and the reason the first-set price matters more than the match price against her.

What Settled, And What The Panel Got Wrong

The loudest number on this page in August was the FIELD row. Eight models independently set aside 11.2% of the title for a woman with no contract on the board, on the argument that 11 of the 32 seeds could not be bought here and five of them had beaten contract-holders during the hard-court swing. Every one of the six survivors holds a contract. The field outcome is dead, and the panel's most distinctive call is a graded miss.

Put the whole of it on one line. The 18 contract-holders who have settled No carried 35.7 points of the panel's August blend, Navarro's 0.8 the latest of them; add the 11.2 for the field, and 46.9 points of the panel's board are now worth nothing. The market's August midpoints had put a similar share, 46.8%, on the names that had settled by Tuesday afternoon, Swiatek's 13.2% the largest of them, before Navarro's row joined the list. Two weeks of tennis wiped out roughly the same share of both boards. The panel was not better than the crowd at spotting who would lose; it was different about who among the rest would win, and that difference is what is still being graded.

Navarro deserves the sentence Swiatek got on Tuesday. The panel's high mark on her was Grok's 1.0, the only seat at a full point; the blend was 0.8; the market paid 2 and 3 cents for her on Tuesday afternoon and 3 and 4 cents during the match. On the panel's terms she was the cheapest live contract on the board by a distance and correctly so. On the price history she was the busiest contract on the board two pulls running, 592,340 contracts in her life, and 559,848 of them were still open when she lost. That is the difference between a probability and a market: the panel priced her chance, and the crowd traded her more than anyone but Gauff.

Every Seat's Number, Frozen

These are the panel's August 28 second-pass numbers for the six live contracts, exactly as each seat gave them, next to Wednesday morning's market share. Nothing here has been re-scored; the last column is the survivors-only rebase from the table above.

The full 24-name table with the field row, as published on August 28, stays on the graded ledger; the 18 settled rows and the field bucket are scored as misses at their August numbers. The blend is the middle number of the eight seats, not the average, so a column of medians does not have to add up.

Two things in that table are worth a sentence. Kimi was the low seat on Sabalenka at 14.0, the only one under 15.5, and its reason in August was her two fourth-round losses in the lead-in events; she has now dropped one set in five matches here, and the market is paying 38 cents for her against Kimi's own six numbers rebased, 27.7. And Grok's 13.0 on Gauff was the panel's low mark, the only seat under 13.5, which rebased on Grok's own six numbers is 25.1, still more than three points above what the market is paying for her today.

Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements. Records as of the August 28 run: GPT 84% on 6,460 graded calls · Claude Fable 84% on 807 graded calls · Claude Opus 84% on 877 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 82% on 852 graded calls · Gemini 86% on 5,151 graded calls · Grok 84% on 4,427 graded calls · Kimi 82% on 2,576 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 2,634 graded calls. The full scoreboard is public and recomputed as markets settle.

Model estimates generated August 28, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data, and shown here unchanged. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Every number in this piece gets graded in public once this market settles after Saturday's final.

What Moves The Board Next

Two matches today, two on Thursday, and a settlement date. Each one reprices the others the way Tuesday night's did.

• Wednesday, 11:30 A.m. ET: Rybakina Against Zheng, First On Arthur Ashe. The No. 1 ranking is on the line for Rybakina. The match market is 73 to 74 cents for her; the title board has them 19.5 cents to 3.5 at the midpoints, the panel's frozen numbers 9.5 to 0.1. A Zheng win would settle 260,918 open contracts of Rybakina at zero and hand the bottom half's first semifinal slot to a contract with 41,771 contracts bid at 3 cents.
• Wednesday, Not Before 12:30 P.m. ET: Gauff Against Andreeva, Second On Ashe. Gauff is 65 to 66 in the match market and 5-0 in the head to head. Her title contract has 133,389 contracts offered at its two best prices and 972 bid at its two best bids; a win folds her 22.5-cent midpoint into the 34.4% conditional number above, and the market's arithmetic says that is what her semifinal price should open near.
• Thursday: The Semifinals. Sabalenka against Pegula is already listed, 62 to 63 cents for Sabalenka after a 71-cent first print and a 59-cent low on Tuesday night. The other semifinal is whoever survives today. Sabalenka is in her sixth straight US Open semifinal by the AP's count, chasing a third straight title, which no woman has done here since Serena Williams won in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

Settlement Timeline

Kalshi's rules for every contract on this board are the same sentence: it resolves Yes if that player "wins the 2026 US Open Women's Singles professional tennis tournament", and No if she "forfeits, withdraws from consideration, or takes any official action that removes them from being able to win." A contract closes early once she loses, as Navarro's did at 10:59 p.m. Tuesday. The champion takes $5,500,000 of a record $108,000,000 in player compensation. Prices on this page refresh through the tournament, and the stamp above every table is the as-of date.

What This Board Looks Like To A DFS Player

The six-name board rhymes with the late-swap window in a large-field tournament, and Tuesday night's tape taught three things that carry across.

Every price is now a path, not a name. Gauff's 22.5-cent midpoint is three numbers multiplied together: her price to beat Andreeva today, her price against the Rybakina-Zheng winner on Thursday, and her price against the top half on Saturday. Three wins, and the match market publishes the first one, 65 to 66, which is why the 34.4% conditional number above can be computed at all; the other two are what the market is really arguing about when it refuses to pay 23.

Depth is the signal, not the last print. The prices on this board barely moved overnight; the books under them did the talking. Gauff has 133,389 contracts offered at her two best prices and 972 bid at hers. Sabalenka has 64,583 bid at her two best levels, and the night's largest buyer and seller both chose 38. Zheng has the largest single resting bid on the board, 41,771 contracts at 3 cents, under a qualifier. A DFS player reads ownership projections the same way, as where the crowd's money wants to go before it has gone there, and on a six-name board with two live matches the order book is that projection. It is also the reason the market-share column, and not the raw ask, is the probability to use: the exchange takes no vig on the price, but the six asks still add to 106 cents, and the share column is what takes that overround out.

The fee is the salary cap, and it is paid once. The Gauff section above has the arithmetic: 2 cents on a 23-cent ask, a 25% break-even. The same rule puts Sabalenka's 39-cent ask at a 41% threshold and Pegula's 12 at 13%. Those are the thresholds each price is actually asking you to believe, and they are the fair way to read a panel number against a market one. This is arithmetic, not a recommendation; the panel's own record says the crowd is usually right when the two disagree by a lot.

Position size before conviction. Asks on this board run from 39 cents to 4, and a one-cent spread on a 3-cent contract is a quarter of the entry on a round trip. The buyer of 31,214 Navarro contracts at 3 cents on Tuesday afternoon paid about $936 to find that out by 11 p.m. Our bankroll rules for prediction markets cover the sizing math, which matters more on a six-name board with two live matches than picking the right longshot does. If the late-swap instinct is the part of this you recognize, it came from the same place our DFS work does, and you can try the Sims free for the sports they cover; tennis is not one of them, and this page is the only place the panel prices it.

The Bottom Line

Tuesday night settled the top half of the draw and repriced almost nothing in it. Pegula did the first of the two things her price required and moved a cent; the biggest trade of the night, 48,305 contracts at 38 cents, went to the opponent she earned, and the market has Sabalenka at 62 to 63 to beat her on Thursday, a rematch of a final and a semifinal Sabalenka has already won. The August panel's loudest call, one title in nine for a woman with no contract, is dead, and its most contested call, Rybakina at nearly double the market, has been settled to within a point. What remains of the argument is now two rows: Pegula at 11 against a survivors-only 16.2, which is about one match on Thursday, and Gauff at 22 against 26.6, which is about two matches and a book with 133,000 contracts of her for sale a cent above the price. Rybakina and Zheng walk out at 11:30. The men's side of this tournament has its own board, and both tournaments are laid out side by side on our US Open odds page. Every number above gets graded in public once the final is played on Saturday.

Hero illustration: OddsShopper, in the house collage style. Aryna Sabalenka photo by Hameltion, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; photos cropped, toned, and composited.

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