Rams Vs 49ers TD Picks: Where The Sims See Value Kalshi Has Not Priced

Prices as of Thursday, September 10, 2026, 4:46 a.m. ET, about 16 hours before kickoff. The game is 10:35 on Friday morning at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

The Stokastic Sims project every player in the Melbourne game. Kalshi prices two touchdown markets on each of them, anytime and first. Where the two disagree is where the picks are. Five of them are below, three on the anytime board and two on the first-touchdown board, plus the two names the Sims say to leave alone.

Short version, if you're in a rush: anytime, Puka Nacua at 40 cents, De'Zhaun Stribling at 18 and Mike Evans at 30. First touchdown, Nacua at 10 cents and Blake Corum at 7. Leave Kyren Williams's anytime contract and George Kittle's alone. Every one of those prices is the Kalshi ask, and the case for each is in the sections below.

The Sims' Board Against Kalshi

Sims pts is the projected fantasy points for the game. Anytime and 1st TD are the Kalshi ask in cents to buy each contract now. ¢ per pt divides the anytime ask by the projection: the lower the number, the less the market charges for each projected point.

The quarterbacks are their own case: a projection built on passing yards says nothing about a sneak, so their touchdown contracts sit at a few cents and the column does not apply. Among the skill players, the market charges between 1.89 and 3.85 cents of anytime price per projected point. The picks live at the bottom of that range.

Anytime Touchdown Picks

Puka Nacua, 40 cents. The highest projection on the field, 21.2 points, at the lowest price per point on the board. Kalshi's 40-cent ask is $41.69 per $100 of payout with the fee, under the $43.48 DraftKings wants and within 90 cents of the best sportsbook price on the OddsShopper screen. The market's own first-touchdown price says it already treats him like a first-drive player, and the Rams are the favorite with the extra red-zone trip. He is the first name on this page for both markets.

De'Zhaun Stribling, 18 cents. The Sims give him 8.1 points, third among the 49ers' pass catchers, and the exchange charges 2.22 cents per projected point, the second-lowest on the board. At $19.04 per $100 of payout with the fee, Kalshi is also cheaper than every sportsbook on the screen, the one anytime contract where that is true, by 15 cents against ProphetX and 96 cents against DraftKings. With Kittle on a snap count in his first game back, the targets that would go to a full-strength Kittle go somewhere, and Stribling is priced as if they do not.

Mike Evans, 30 cents. Eleven and a half projected points at 2.63 cents each, under McCaffrey's 2.71 and well under the Rams' receivers. The exchange sells the contract for $31.47 per $100 of payout, $3 under DraftKings. The market thinks his touchdowns come late, which is what his 20 percent first-touchdown share says, and on an anytime contract that does not matter.

First Touchdown Picks

Puka Nacua, 10 cents. The exchange charges 15 cents for McCaffrey's first touchdown and 10 for Nacua's, on a projection that is half a point higher. Nacua's first-touchdown price is 25 percent of his anytime price, the same share as the running backs, so the market already expects his scores early. It just has not priced the projection. At $10.64 per $100 of payout with the fee, he is the one first-touchdown contract to buy on what the Sims say.

Blake Corum, 7 cents. The second name, for a different reason. Seven cents plus the fee is $7.46 per $100 of payout, and no sportsbook on the OddsShopper screen goes under $9.00; DraftKings wants $10.00. His first-touchdown price is 20 percent of his anytime price, the lowest share of any back with a real bid, which says the market expects his carries late in a timeshare. A goal-line carry on the Rams' opening drive says otherwise, and the gap against every book is the widest on the board for any player with a role.

Two To Leave Alone

Kyren Williams anytime, 52 cents. The priciest projected point on the board, 3.74 cents each for 13.9 points. He is the lead back on the favorite and the price is fair for that; it is just the worst exchange rate on the board for a Sims reader, and the Sims already have Corum at nearly a third of the backfield's projected output.

George Kittle anytime, 22 cents. The ask looks cheap next to 9.3 projected points until you see the bid, 5 cents. A 17-cent spread on a starter is the market saying it does not know how many snaps he plays. He came off the injury report and will play, but neither he nor Nick Bosa is expected to carry a full snap count in his first game back from an Achilles and an ACL, per ESPN. Wait for the inactives and a real bid.

Signal Vs. Noise

Every price is the Kalshi ask in cents. Signal should change how you price the market. Noise looks like information and is not. Watch is real but unresolved until the inactives or the coin toss.

Before Kickoff

The 49ers have been in Melbourne since September 4. The Rams planned to land about 24 hours before the game and stay on Pacific time, so their bodies read 5:35 p.m. when the ball goes up, per NFL.com. Nobody has data on what either plan does to a scripted opening drive. What the schedule does settle is the favorite: Kalshi has the Rams at 64 to 65 cents to win, a 3.5-point favorite at the books with a 48.5 total, so the team expected to score about 26 points gets the extra trip inside the 10. The inactives land about 90 minutes before kickoff; re-check every price above against them, and the OddsShopper twin of this page has the sportsbook prices on every name.

The Sims are live for this game. Projections for every player on the field, updated through the inactives. Code MELBOURNE10 takes 10% off your first payment on any Stokastic NFL or All Access package.

Get 10% off the Sims with code MELBOURNE10

Kalshi prices and Stokastic Sims projections as of Thursday, September 10, 2026, 4:46 a.m. ET; both keep moving until the market settles after the game. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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