NFL Draft 2027 Odds: First Pick, Order And The QB Class

Arch Manning is the favorite to go first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft, and Arizona is the favorite to make that pick. Those are Kalshi's prices as of August 3, 2026, pulled before the college season opened, and every number on this page carries that stamp until the next pull. Kalshi prices the draft three ways: the player who goes first, the team that picks first, and who lands inside the top five. The boards below answer all three.

Who goes No. 1 overall?

Manning leads the first-pick market at 33.5 cents, with Oregon's Dante Moore and Notre Dame's CJ Carr the only other names priced above 15. The second column matters as much as the first. It prices each prospect to be drafted inside the top five, which is where a player's floor shows up.

The first-pick market has traded more than a hundred times the volume of the top-five board, so treat thin top-five rows as quotes rather than trades. A dash means the August 3 pull did not record a price on that board.

Manning's pair of prices is the page's clearest read. At 33.5 cents to go first and 69.5 to go top five, the market treats his draft range as narrow and high: even in the outcomes where he is not the pick, he rarely falls past the fifth. Nobody else on the board carries a floor number close to it.

Does the Heisman board agree?

No. Carr is the Heisman favorite at 12.5 cents, a shade ahead of Manning at 11.5, with Mensah close behind. The award market prices this college season's production and the draft market prices NFL projection, so the gap between a player's two rankings is the market's scouting opinion in one subtraction. Read together, the money expects Carr to have the better 2026 and Manning to have the better April. A September surge by any of these quarterbacks moves the Heisman board, this board and the conference championship markets at once, and that correlated move is the tell that a repricing is real.

Where the non-quarterbacks live

Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is the board's structural argument. He trades at 9 cents to go first but 51 cents to go top five, even with Dante Moore, so the market's position is that Smith is a top-of-the-draft talent whose path to the first pick is blocked by positional economics. Teams picking first take quarterbacks. The top-five board is where the rest of the non-QB class is priced honestly: Dylan Stewart, Leonard Moore, Jordan Seaton and Cam Coleman all carry real numbers there and barely register on the first-pick board. USC's Jayden Maiava is the quiet exception in the other direction, priced for a top-five range at 24 cents against a first-pick contract at 1.5.

Which team picks first?

The team market is the tank race in reverse, and the same exchange's win-total ladders are the built-in cross-check. Mostly the two boards agree. The exception is the top: Arizona is priced at double Miami to make the first pick, yet the win-total ladders make the Dolphins the league's worst team by a tenth of a win. Some of that gap is tiebreaker math, since draft order breaks ties on strength of schedule, some is conviction about how each front office behaves in December, and some is one board lagging the other. That disagreement is the row to watch all fall.

Arizona holding the top pick would come one year after the Cardinals spent the No. 3 overall selection on running back Jeremiyah Love, the current Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, handing one rebuilding roster two straight premium offensive picks.

What dynasty managers should take from it

Dynasty rookie drafts spend this board's output a year early. The first-pick market is a live ranking of the quarterback class for superflex formats, the top-five board is the best public read on which non-quarterbacks will command premium rookie-draft capital, and the team market tells you which landing spots are realistic for the top names. Landing spot has historically been the swing variable in rookie value. Last cycle's version of this board resolved into Fernando Mendoza going first overall to the Raiders, and his 18.5-cent Offensive Rookie of the Year price today shows how directly first-pick capital converts into year-one fantasy relevance. The full map of market families for fantasy readers is on the fantasy football prediction markets hub.

Before you trade it

Where our AI panel's numbers appear on linked boards, those are model estimates graded against real settlements on the public model verdict scoreboard.

The bottom line

The market has already decided Manning belongs in the top five and is still arguing about whether he goes first. The team race is the number to watch this fall, because the win-total ladders will move before this board does, and Arizona against Miami is the row where the two boards already disagree. Prices are from August 3, before a college snap was played, and this page refreshes in place when the market is pulled again.

Prices as of August 3, 2026, 14:15 UTC, fetched from the live Kalshi exchange. Market rules quoted from the contracts the same morning; prospect schools verified against ESPN.

More on this: NFL Win Totals As A Fantasy Draft Signal · NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds · College Football Conference Championship Odds · Fantasy Football Prediction Markets Hub