NFL Draft 2027 Odds: First Pick, Order And The QB Class

The 2027 NFL Draft is nine months away, and the market is already arguing about it in three languages at once. Kalshi runs a player market on the No. 1 overall pick (20 names, about 184,800 contracts), a team market on who makes that pick (all 32 franchises), and a top-5 board that prices each prospect's range instead of his peak. Together they are the cleanest live read anywhere on the tank race, the quarterback class, and the draft capital that dynasty fantasy managers will spend next spring. This is the permanent hub for those markets: prices below are quote midpoints fetched from the live exchange on August 3, 2026, the page rebuilds in place as the college season reprices the class, and the "as of" stamp carries the evidence.

The Quick Answer

The market's draft board today: Arch Manning is the 33.5-cent favorite to go No. 1 overall, with Oregon's Dante Moore at 22, Notre Dame's CJ Carr at 16.5, and Miami's Darian Mensah at 10.5; the only non-quarterback with a real number is Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith at 9 cents. On the team side, Arizona trades at 36 cents to make the first pick, nearly double Miami's 18, with the Jets (16.5) and Cleveland (13.5) behind. And the top-5 board prices Manning at 69.5 cents to be drafted in the first five picks, which is the market saying his floor, not just his ceiling, is elite. Every board, the tank-race math against the win-total ladders, and the Heisman crossover are below.

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The Three Markets That Price The Draft

Settlement is quoted from the contracts: the team market resolves Yes "if [team] is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft," and the top-5 market settles on whether a player "is drafted top 5." Note the volume spread: the No. 1 pick player market has traded more than a hundred times the top-5 board, so top-5 quotes on thin rows are opinions, not verdicts.

The Team Race: Reverse Standings, Priced Live

The team board is a tank race read in reverse, and it comes with a built-in cross-check: the same exchange's 32 win-total ladders. Mostly the two agree. The Jets trade at 16.5 cents here and 5.6 implied wins there; Cleveland at 13.5 and 5.9; Tennessee at 6.5 and 6.6. The interesting row is the top of the board, where the two markets quietly disagree: Arizona is the 36-cent draft-order favorite, double Miami's 18, yet the win-total ladders price the Dolphins as the league's worst team at 4.5 implied wins to Arizona's 4.6. A tenth of a win separates the teams on one board while the other prices them two-to-one. Some of that gap is tiebreaker math (draft order breaks ties on strength of schedule), some is conviction about how each front office behaves in December, and some is one board lagging the other, which is exactly the kind of disagreement worth watching all fall.

One franchise note the boards agree on completely: Arizona holding the top pick would come one year after the Cardinals spent the No. 3 overall selection on running back Jeremiyah Love, the current Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, which would hand one rebuilding roster two straight premium-capital offensive weapons.

Arch Manning, Texas: The Favorite And His Floor

The market prices Manning two ways, and the pair says more than either number alone: 33.5 cents to be the first pick, 69.5 cents to go top 5. Read together, the market believes his draft range is narrow and high; even in the worlds where he is not the pick, he rarely falls out of the top five. That structure, price the peak on one board and the floor on another, is the right way to read every prospect here, and nobody else on the board carries anything like Manning's floor number. His Heisman contract trades at 11.5 cents, second on that 29-name board, so the exchange is simultaneously pricing his season and his stock.

The Rest Of The QB Class: Moore, Carr, Mensah

Dante Moore of Oregon holds the second slot at 22 cents (51 on the top-5 board), CJ Carr of Notre Dame trades at 16.5 (36.5 top 5), and Miami's Darian Mensah sits at 10.5, with South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers (6.5), North Texas riser Drew Mestemaker (5.5), and Ohio State's Julian Sayin (4.5) filling the second tier. The instructive comparison is against the Heisman board's 4.4 million contracts, where the order inverts: Carr is the 12.5-cent Heisman favorite ahead of Manning at 11.5, with Mensah at 9.5. The award market prices this college season's production; the draft market prices NFL projection, and the gap between a player's two rankings is the market's scouting opinion in one subtraction. Carr outranking Manning for the Heisman while trailing him by 17 cents for the first pick says the money expects Carr to have the better 2026 and Manning to have the better April.

Jeremiah Smith And The Non-Quarterback Problem

Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is the board's structural argument. His No. 1 pick contract trades at 9 cents, but his top-5 contract trades at 51, even with Dante Moore's, so the market's actual position is that Smith is a top-of-the-draft talent whose path to the very first pick is blocked by positional economics: teams picking first need quarterbacks. The top-5 board is where the non-QB class lives at honest prices, and it runs deeper than the headline market suggests: South Carolina defensive end Dylan Stewart at 40 cents, Notre Dame cornerback Leonard Moore at 34, LSU offensive tackle Jordan Seaton at 25.5, and Texas wide receiver Cam Coleman at 20, names the No. 1 pick market mostly ignores (USC quarterback Jayden Maiava is the quiet exception: 24 cents here against a 1.5-cent first-pick contract, a range bet rather than a crown bet). For a dynasty manager, that 51-cent Smith number is the market pre-pricing next spring's 1.01 receiver conversation.

The Heisman And Conference Crossover

Every name above plays a 2026 college season before any of these markets settle, and the exchange prices that season too. The Heisman board (29 names, about 4.4 million contracts) is the production shadow of this draft board, and the team races that decide each quarterback's November stage are priced conference by conference on our college football conference championship hub, where Manning's Texas and Carr's Notre Dame schedule-strength arguments live as tradeable numbers. A September in which one of these quarterbacks surges moves three boards at once, and the correlated move is the tell that a repricing is real rather than one thin book twitching.

The Dynasty Fantasy Crossover

Dynasty rookie drafts spend this board's output, which makes it draft-prep infrastructure a year early. The practical uses: the No. 1 pick market is a live ranking of the quarterback class for superflex formats; the top-5 board is the best public read on which non-QBs (Smith above all) will command premium rookie-draft capital; and the team market tells you which NFL landing spots are realistic for the class's top names, which matters because landing spot has historically been the swing variable in rookie value. Last cycle's version of this board resolved into Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 overall to the Raiders, per the verified draft data on our OROY card, and his 18.5-cent award price today shows how directly first-pick capital converts into year-one fantasy relevance. The full market-families map for fantasy readers is on the fantasy football prediction markets hub.

What Reprices This Board

Draft futures move on a knowable calendar: September college performances (the fastest repricer for the QB tier), the November elimination rounds of the tank race as NFL records separate, December quarterback declaration decisions, and the February-to-April scouting cycle of the combine and pro days. The team board also moves on pure NFL noise (a quarterback injury on a fringe team can move its first-pick price overnight). This hub rebuilds in place through draft night rather than minting a new page per news cycle, so the prices above always carry their fetch date.

How To Read These Prices

• Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, and availability varies by state as of August 2026.
• Liquidity. The No. 1 pick market is deep (~184,800 contracts); the top-5 board is not (~1,500, with several rows never traded). Quote midpoints on untraded rows are decoration.
• Time. Listed expirations run to May 2027; capital in these markets is committed across the entire college season and NFL scouting cycle.
• Not advice. Market prices are data, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Where our AI panel's numbers appear on linked boards, those are model estimates graded against real market settlements on the public model verdict scoreboard.

The Bottom Line

Three markets, one argument: Manning's floor is priced like a verdict while his peak is priced like a debate, the rest of the quarterback tier is stacked behind him in a shape the Heisman board actively disputes, and the team race is a two-board disagreement about whether Arizona or Miami owns the bottom. The draft is in April; the information is tradeable now, and we rebuild this hub in place as the season reprices it. The win-total ladders will tell you all fall which teams are drifting toward the top of this board, and once the class actually reaches NFL fields, Stokastic Prop Tools is where our projections meet their live lines every slate.

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Prices as of August 3, 2026, 14:15 UTC, fetched from the live Kalshi exchange. Market rules quoted from the contracts the same morning; prospect schools verified against ESPN. This page carries market data and editorial context; model estimates on linked boards are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.