Every politics market we cover — model verdicts published before settlement, graded when the market resolves.
2028 presidential election odds: Kalshi has J.D. Vance at a 19.5-cent mid, but winner-over-nominee math says the market trusts Rubio and Ossoff more.
Jake Hari · August 12, 2026
Cheap Kalshi longshots are GPP entries and 97-cent favorites are cash games. A DFS mindset for choosing positions in prediction markets.
Stokastic Staff · August 12, 2026
Los Angeles mayor election odds on Kalshi price Karen Bass at 64% over Nithya Raman at 35%, in a 90 million-contract market that already misread this race once.
Jake Hari · August 11, 2026
North Carolina Senate election odds on Kalshi price Roy Cooper at 91% over Michael Whatley, while the state's last three federal races all went Republican.
Wisconsin governor Democratic primary odds: Kalshi prices Francesca Hong at 96% while the final polls give her 44%, and a split field explains that gap.
Kalshi's biggest open market makes Gavin Newsom the 16-cent favorite for the 2028 Democratic nomination. Seven price-blind AI models read the same fetched polling and land on a name trading at a third of that: Pete Buttigieg, at 5 cents. The full 47-name board and the reasoning are inside.
Jake Hari · August 10, 2026
California governor election odds on Kalshi price Xavier Becerra at 96% over Steve Hilton, and the 49.8M-contract field board reads like a large-field GPP.
Florida governor primary odds, settled: Kalshi finalized Byron Donalds' nomination contract at $1 on August 19, and the 1.5-cent longshot that out-traded him four to one settled at zero. The live Florida governor market now is the general-election board, at 81 cents Republican.
Kalshi's 2028 Republican nominee board prices J.D. Vance at 41.5 cents. Seven AI models, working price-blind from 26 recent polls and the sitting-VP base rate, blended him at 53.2 percent after a revision round. The full 38-contract field, and where the money disagrees with the fundamentals, inside.
Kalshi prices the 2026 Texas Senate race as a dead heat at 50.5 cents on 7.6M contracts traded. Seven AI models weighed the polls against the GOP streak.
